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By Andrew Stanton
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Several Democratic politicians have endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli over Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race.
Newsweek reached out to the Ciattarelli and Sherrill campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is a key bellwether for the mood of the electorate ahead of the midterms. New Jersey historically has a Democratic lean but shifted rightward in last year’s presidential race as Republicans made inroads with Latino, Asian and young voters, groups that traditionally have voted for Democrats.
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The race between Ciattarelli and Sherrill could test whether Democrats are winning those voters back ahead of next year’s elections, when Democrats are hoping to win seats across the country.
Although Sherrill has cast herself as more of a centrist Democrat, she has lost support from some local Democratic elected officials throughout the campaign cycle. Sherrill has led most polls, but Republicans believe Ciattarelli’s support is underestimated in recent surveys, similar to four years ago when he nearly unseated Democratic Governor Phil Murphy.
What To Know
Sherrill represents a suburban congressional district in Northern New Jersey, primarily based around Morris County. Ciattarelli, a former legislator and business owner, was the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee four years ago, when he lost to Murphy by about three points.
Affordability has remained a major issue for New Jersey voters, and both candidates have emphasized it on the campaign trail. President Donald Trump has weighed in on the race, supporting Ciattarelli—though Sherrill has sought to tie Ciattarelli to the less popular policies from the administration.
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Several elected Democrats in New Jersey have broken ranks and endorsed Ciattarelli over Sherrill. Those Democrats include the following:
- North Bergen Mayor Nick Sacco
- North Bergen Commissioner Allen Pascual
- Dover Mayor Jim Dodd
- Garfield Mayor Everett Garnto Jr.
- Branchville Mayor Anthony Frato
- Branchville Councilman Jeff Lewis
- Former Hudson County Democratic Organization Chair Anthony Vainieri
Garnto left the Democratic Party when he endorsed Ciattarelli.
Most recent polls continue to give Sherrill a lead, though the race appears to be closer than the gubernatorial race in Virginia, where Democratic former Representative Abigail Spanberger leads by a larger margin.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released last week showed Sherrill up seven points over Ciattarelli (52 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 814 registered voters from October 9 to October 15 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A Fox News poll, which surveyed 869 likely voters from October 10 to October 14, showed Sherrill up five points (50 percent to 45 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
A Quinnipiac University poll gave Sherrill a 6-point lead (50 percent to 44 percent). The survey of 1,327 New Jersey likely voters was conducted from October 9 to October 13 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick, told Newsweek that Sherrill’s consistent lead does not necessarily mean she will win. That’s especially true when candidates’ leads are in the mid-single digits.
“Several recent polls show this race within the margin of error, so I’d caution not to make the same mistake in interpreting preelection polling as 2016. What polls do tell us is that this is a close race, and like any election, who wins will completely depend upon each campaign’s GOTV operations and turnout,” she said.
The race could be anyone’s game, she said.
Sherrill must make sure the Democratic base turns out, while winning over some independent voters, while Ciattarelli must make more inroads than his 2021 campaign to win enough support to “get him over the finish line,” Koning said.
“Each candidate must drive home their final messages on affordability while navigating significant—and potentially distracting —allegations from their opponent and the shadows of their respective party leaders,” she said.
Dan Cassino, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University, told Newsweek that the race appears to be “a bog standard New Jersey statewide election.”
“What’s surprising is exactly how standard and predictable this race has been, and the extent to which the data—polling and vote by mail returns—are at odds with the vibes of the election. Some of those vibes are Democrats who were traumatized by 2024 panicking, and concerns that Sherrill’s campaign has been anemic, but there’s widespread sentiment on the ground that the race is very close, no matter what the data is saying,” Cassino said.
Both Sherrill and Ciattarelli must focus on motivating turnout over the final weeks of the campaign, he said.
What People Are Saying
Dan Cassino told Newsweek: “Trump did relatively well in New Jersey in 2024, less because he won over a lot of supporters than because a large number of Democrats stayed home. So, to replicate Trump’s relative success, Ciattarelli has to persuade Democrats to stay home.
"We don’t have much evidence yet that he’s been able to do so—a lot of the lost votes in Passaic County, for instance, were driven by anger over Palestine, and that doesn’t seem likely to play a big role this year—but we won’t really know until Election Day whether those voters are going to come out.”
North Bergen Mayor Nick Sacco said at an event earlier in October, per Hudson County View: “Two candidates for governor were invited to come to the mayor’s ball, only one responded positively. And that man is here with us now...the next governor of New Jersey: Jack Ciattarelli.”
President Donald Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social: “JACK CIATTARELLI IS A WINNER FOR NEW JERSEY! Mikie Sherrill is the exact opposite, a stone cold loser, who will drive your Energy costs through the roof, just like the Democrats are doing all over the Country but, even more so, because she has no understanding of what she is doing.”
Representative Mikie Sherrill wrote Tuesday on X: “Grateful for every single New Jerseyan who is with us in this fight. We're in the final stretch of this campaign and I'm fighting every day for your families and your future.”
What Happens Next
Election Day is set for November 4, 2025. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both classify the race as Leans Democratic.
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