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By Andrew Stanton
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At least four states could redraw their congressional maps before 2028, setting the stage for new redistricting battles that could have major implications for future control of the House of Representatives.
The unprecedented mid-decade redistricting arms race reshaped the 2026 midterms, in some states backfiring on Republicans and allowing Democrats to flip seats previously thought of as uncompetitive.
But redistricting may already be on the agenda in several states, including Maryland, Mississippi, New York and Wisconsin, as both parties consider additional advantages before the 2028 elections.
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The looming redistricting battles come after Republicans largely failed to see their redistricting efforts pay off in the 2026 midterms in which the Democrats have won 254 seats, and Republicans 162. Nineteen seats were still uncalled, according to The Associated Press.
Why States Are Considering Rare Mid-Decade Redistricting
Mid-decade redistricting is uncommon but not unheard of. Congressional maps are typically redrawn at the start of each decade, after the U.S. Census is conducted. Historically, mid-decade redistricting occurs when a court strikes down a lawmaker-passed map as unconstitutional.
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But ahead of the 2026 midterms, mid-decade redistricting was more partisan in nature.
The efforts were launched in Texas, where Republicans, with support from President Donald Trump, sought to mitigate losses amid early signs that they could be facing a challenging national environment. But the GOP picked up just one redrawn seat near Dallas, but failed to flip other seats from Democratic control; in fact, Democrats won two GOP-held seats in South Texas.
Other states—both Democratic and Republican—followed. Democratic-controlled California, as well as Republican-controlled Alabama, Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee, all redrew their maps. Ohio and Utah redrew following court orders. Efforts in other states like Indiana, Missouri and Virginia failed.
The Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which ruled that Louisiana’s congressional map containing two majority-Black districts constituted a racial gerrymander, also upended redistricting efforts. The ruling was seen as weakening the Voting Rights Act, and other states used it to erase majority-Black, Democratic-leaning seats.
Which States Could Redraw Their Congressional Maps Before 2028?
Congressional maps in several states could change if lawmakers end up pursuing redistricting in 2027 or 2028.
However, the 2026 midterms revealed the redistricting risk—while redraws can increase the number of seats considered to lean toward one party, they can also spread voters thin, exposing a higher number of incumbents in wave elections.
With 2028 still two years away, uncertainty about the political environment remains a substantial part of the redistricting conversation.
Maryland
In Maryland, voters passed an amendment that could allow Democratic lawmakers to redraw their maps ahead of 2028 after initial hopes of a redraw failed to advance earlier this year.
Democrats could target Maryland’s 1st District, which includes much of the conservative eastern shore and is represented by Republican Representative Andy Harris, in a potential redraw.
Governor Wes Moore, seen as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, has sought to redraw the map but faces challenges in the state. A judge in 2022 ruled against Democrats’ efforts to place Harris in a tougher seat. Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Democrat, also declined to pursue redistricting.
But the new amendment could override that ruling and open the door to giving Democrats an opportunity to target the state’s only Republican-held seat.
Mississippi
Governor Tate Reeves, a Republican, signaled earlier this year that he would be interested in redrawing Mississippi’s congressional map to place the only Democratic Representative in the state, Bennie Thompson, in a more conservative seat, after the Callais ruling.
During a May 2026 interview on the radio show SuperTalk Mississippi, he made clear that he viewed it as a priority after the midterms. He said redistricting is "complicated" but that it is "fair to say" lawmakers were looking at options as to the best time for redistricting.
"What I would tell you is the tenure of Congressman Bennie Thompson raining terror on the 2nd Congressional District is over. It is not a question of if, it’s a question of when," he said.
He also wrote in a May 13 post to X he would like to see redrawn lines before the 2027 elections, writing, "Just to clarify, I said I expect lawmakers to redraw congressional lines BETWEEN NOW and 2027 elections! I also expect them to redraw legislative and Supreme Court lines between now and 2027 elections!"
However, it’s not clear whether Republicans still have the appetite to redraw the lines in Mississippi after the midterms. Democrats performed well in the state, despite its longtime conservative lean. Democrat Scott Colom led Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Senate race as of Monday, though the race remained too close to call.
New York
New York, where Democrats retained their legislative majorities in the midterms, could be another state where lawmakers could move to redraw their maps.
Democrats took steps to begin the redistricting process earlier this year, with the state legislature passing an amendment that would allow mid-decade redistricting. The amendment would also need voter approval.
The extent of how lawmakers could redraw in New York remained unclear. They could target one of the two GOP-held Long Island seats, a seat comprised of Staten Island and more conservative parts of Brooklyn as well as one of the three Republican-held Upstate districts.
Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who easily won reelection, in May cast redistricting as a "right for our democracy."
Wisconsin
Governor-elect David Crowley, a Democrat, signaled that he would sign a bill to redraw Wisconsin’s congressional map. The current map is seen as having a conservative tilt, though Democrats are set to hold four of the eight districts when the new Congress convenes next year.
"Just to put a nail in the coffin when it comes to this, if the bill was to reach my desk, I will sign it," he told WISN, a Milwaukee-based news station, over the weekend.
Such a map could place Democratic Representative-elects Mitchell Berman and Rebecca Cooke, who were elected in Wisconsin’s 1st and 3rd districts, in more Democratic-leaning districts. Trump narrowly carried both districts in 2024.
In fact, Trump won six of the eight districts, despite only winning the state by less than a percentage point, a fact Democrats have said shows the maps are not fair.
Whether Democrats plan to go for a more aggressive map is yet to be seen.
Republican Redistricting Flopped in Midterms
Overall, Republicans did not see the gains they hoped from redistricting in the midterms.
In Texas, redistricting gave Republicans only one additional seat in the Dallas area. Republicans hoped to flip three Democratic-held seats in South Texas, but a leftward shift among Hispanic voters resulted in two GOP-held seats flipping to Democrats instead. The GOP also failed to flip TX-09, a Houston-based seat that also saw a leftward jump.
Republicans also appeared to have failed to flip any seats in Florida. Three Democratic-held seats that were redrawn to become more conservative stayed in Democrats’ hands, and a fourth was too close to call, though Democratic Representative Darren Soto held a narrow lead.
Redistricting appeared to backfire in North Carolina, where Democrats led Republicans in 10 of the 14 congressional seats, many of which Trump carried by more than 10 or 15 points in 2024.
In Tennessee, Republicans eked out a win in TN-09, a Memphis-based district that was redrawn to become more conservative. However, the map appeared to backfire for GOP Representative Scott DesJarlais, who was trailing Democrat Victoria Broderick in a seat Trump won by 24 points.
A redrawn district in Louisiana will go to a December election, but Republicans are favored in that race.
What this means for 2028 is still a bit unclear—if the year is less favorable to Democrats, some of these conservative seats are going to be uphill battles for Democrats. But if it appears to be another blue tsunami year, redistricting could give Democrats an opportunity to expand their majority even further.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Samantha Beech and Trevor Davies.
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