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Inside Elections has shifted nine Senate races on Thursday—all in favor of Democrats—as election forecaster Nate Silver highlighted "very strong polls" for the party, just days before the crucial midterm elections.
Inside Elections shifted Georgia, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, Louisiana and Mississippi's Senate races on Thursday. The changes come as Silver touted the favorable polling on X, saying, "Very strong polls for Democrats in individual Senate races over the past couple of days. Polls can be wrong, that's what models/probabilities/markets are for, but I think we're past the point where you can honestly say 'polls show the Senate is too close to call'."
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them.
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President Donald Trump's overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have recently slipped as households across America are consistently flagging affordability concerns. The polling lows come as Trump has crisscrossed the country in the lead-up to November 3 to rally for potentially vulnerable GOP candidates.
What To Know
As Tuesday's election nears, Republicans are blitzing in an attempt to maintain their Senate majority. Trump administration officials including Vice President JD Vance and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have also hit the campaign trail to stump for candidates in tight races.
In its changes, Inside Elections has shifted some of the key Senate races that both Republicans and Democrats have tried to keep within their grasps. Below is a list of the shifts:
- Georgia's U.S. Senate race has moved from lean Democrat to likely Democrat as incumbent Jon Ossoff battles Trump-backed Mike Collins. Recent polling shows Ossoff leading in nearly every survey.
- Ohio's U.S. Senate seat has moved from a toss-up to tilt Democrat as Republican incumbent Jon Husted faces off against Democrat Sherrod Brown. Recent polling has been favorable for Brown.
- Texas' U.S. Senate race has also moved from a toss-up to tilt Democrat. The race has caught the attention of the nation and Trump as he goes to bat for Republican Ken Paxton versus Democrat James Talarico. Polling shows this race is in a virtual dead heat.
- The race for Iowa's U.S. Senate seat has changed from tilt Republican to a toss-up. Republican Ashley Hinson faces off against Democrat Josh Turek on November 3. Recent polling shows a tight race with either candidate up 1 to 3 percentage points.
- Kansas' Senate race also shifted from tilt Republican to a toss-up on Thursday as Democrat Adam Hamilton fights to flip the seat held by incumbent Roger Marshall. Hamilton leads in a majority of recent polling.
- South Carolina's Senate seat has changed from lean Republican to tilt Republican as Darline Graham fights to hold on to the GOP stronghold, previously held by her brother Lindsey Graham before his death, versus Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews. A new poll released this week showed Graham and Andrews tied.
- Nebraska's U.S. Senate seat shifted to tilt Republican from lean Republican while incumbent Pete Ricketts fights to maintain control of his seat versus independent Dan Osborn.
- Louisiana's U.S. Senate race has shifted from solid Republican to likely Republican as Democrat Jamie Davis faces Republican nominee Julia Letlow.
- In Mississippi, incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is running against Democrat Scott Colom as the race has shifted from solid Republican to likely Republican.
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Meanwhile, top election forecaster Cook Political Report lists Georgia's race as likely Democratic; Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Iowa's as toss-ups; South Carolina's as lean Republican; and Nebraska and Mississippi's as likely Republican. Cook rates Louisiana's Senate race as solid Republican.
Silver Bulletin’s 2026 election Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings (FLIPR) highlights Democratic polling leads with the caveat that Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine "are all just a normal-sized polling error away from flipping." The forecast also says there is a 77.7 percent chance that Democrats regain control of the Senate.
On prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket, the Democratic Party has a double-digit lead for who will control the Senate following the midterms.
Map Shows Toss-Up Senate Races 5 Days Ahead of Midterms
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins
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