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By Kate Plummer
Senior US News Reporter
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If Florida creates a new electoral map it could boost the Republican Party's strong majority in the state by four seats and stop the Democrats from flipping the House in the upcoming midterm elections—though significant challenges mean this outcome is far from likely.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on Monday unveiled a proposed new congressional map for the state that could boost Republicans’ hold on the U.S. House, escalating a high-stakes redistricting fight tied to President Donald Trump’s nationwide push to redraw congressional lines ahead of the midterm elections.
The map, released by DeSantis’ office ahead of a special legislative session, would likely create up to four additional GOP-leaning districts if approved by Florida’s Republican-controlled Legislature. DeSantis said the proposal reflects population shifts since the 2020 Census and anticipates a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on how race can be considered when drawing districts.
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This comes after Virginia voters approved a statewide referendum to enact a new congressional map that could net Democrats up to four additional U.S. House seats. However, the new maps have been paused pending a legal challenge. Meanwhile, there have been other redistricting efforts in other states including Texas, California, Missouri and Ohio.
Newsweek reached out to DeSantis' office by email to comment on this story.
Why It Matters For The Midterms
There has been a national redistricting fight in which Republicans and Democrats alike have attempted to draw new state maps to impact the results of future votes.
Redistricting could have a major impact on upcoming elections, including the November 2026 midterms, which will affect the balance of power in Congress and, in turn, Trump's ability to carry out his agenda. Republicans have a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, so every seat matters. Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to do better in midterm elections.
Florida is a strong Republican state but Democrats have performed well in special elections in Florida and redistricting could neutralize the potential Democratic threat.
What Seats Are at Risk?
There are 28 House seats in Congress: 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats.
According to political analyst Dave Wasserman, the four Democratic seats most impacted by the map are Florida 9th, 14th, 23rd and 25th congressional districts. They are held, respectively, by Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
These seats are at risk in part because Castor's Tampa-based district would be dismantled and the Democratic base would be split among several GOP-leaning districts.
Soto's district would be carved up and split among Republican-favoring seats. And redrawn boundaries would compress Wasserman Schultz' and Moskowitz' seats into fewer seats.
Newsweek reached out the Florida Democratic Party by website form to comment on this story.
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Writing in a memo before the map was published, Alex Alvarado, a Republican political analyst for the Civic Data and Research Institute, said that an aggressive redistricting effort could see the GOP winning three more districts but that there would be no net gain for the party.
Republican strategist Karl Rove also told Fox & Friends co-host Brian Kilmeade that redistricting could make Republicans "lose a seat or two."
“If Florida moves like it can, the Republicans will at least be even,” he said. “But there’s a risk there, because what they’re going to do is they’re going to have to take Republican votes out of Republican districts and put them into Democrat districts.”
Rove said this will “lower the numbers for some incumbent Republicans, and they may lose a seat or two.”
In total, because of all the redistricting efforts across the U.S., Democrats have redrawn or secured maps that could net about 10 favorable seats, while Republicans are positioned for roughly nine, a near draw that assumes past voting patterns hold this November, according to Associated Press analysis.
If there is successful redistricting in Florida too, therefore, it could make the GOP take the lead and win more seats, securing the Republican Party's electoral success.
Challenges
Redistricting in Florida may spark legal challenges. The state has anti-gerrymandering rules, which bar lawmakers from drawing districts to benefit one party.
Meanwhile, some Florida Republicans are opposed to the concept and have raised concerns that redistricting could dilute the Republican vote in certain areas.
“Don’t do it. I’ve said it from the beginning,” Florida Republican Daniel Webster told Punchbowl News earlier this month. “I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it’s a slippery slope.”
William F. Hall, an adjunct professor of political science and business at Webster University in St. Louis, Missouri told Newsweek that in ight of these challenges "potentially, a planned redistricting of the congressional districts in Florida could ultimately backfire, against Republican candidates."
"Ongoing efforts to engage in gerrymandering are becoming more frequently fraught with potential danger," he added.
The Democrat Response
Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also indicated the Democrats would bite back if the GOP passes a new map in Florida.
He said in a statement: "If Florida Republicans proceed with this illegal scheme, they will only create more prime pick-up opportunities for Democrats, just as they did with Trump’s dummymander in Texas. We will aggressively target for defeat Mario Díaz-Balart, Maria Elvira Salazar, Carlos Giménez, Kat Cammack, Anna Paulina Luna, Laurel Lee, Cory Mills and Brian Mast. We are prepared to take them all on, and we are prepared to win. Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time.”
Jeffries also posted to X, saying, "Democrats defeated Donald Trump’s gerrymandering scheme in Virginia tonight. We will crush the DeSantis Dummymander in Florida next."
Nikki Fried, Chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, said in a statement issued to Newsweek that “Ron DeSantis didn’t draw this map for Florida, he drew them for the only Floridian he cares about: Donald Trump.
"He would wilfully break the law and screw over the people of Florida for a morsel of relevance. Today’s map shows nothing but craven contempt for the voters. No one wants this; not the voters, not the legislature. There has been bipartisan opposition to this process for months. No matter what Ron does to try to rig the game, we will fight back.”
What Happens Next
Lawmakers in the Sunshine State are meeting on Tuesday to discuss, among other issues, whether to make changes to the state's congressional lines.
Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives Daniel Perez said in a memorandum that the House has received DeSantis' proposed congressional map, and the House Select Committee on Redistricting will take up the governor’s proposal on Tuesday.
The midterm elections take place in November 2026. Before that, the deadline to file paperwork to run for Congress in Florida is 12 June. Party primaries will take place on 18 August.
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