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By Khaleda Rahman
National Correspondent
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With midterm elections only days away, prediction market odds show that five Senate races have tightened considerably over the past week.
The figures show that the gap between candidates on Polymarket has narrowed by between 4 and 20 points in South Carolina, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas.
Several of the contests are expected to determine control of the chamber in Tuesday's midterms. Four have been deemed toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, while the South Carolina race has been rated "lean Republican."
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Experts told Newsweek that it's not unusual for polls and other indicators in competitive races to tighten as Election Day approaches.
"Usually, this tells us what we already knew: that the race is close and that anything can happen once votes are counted," said Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University.
Republicans are scrambling to preserve their slim majorities in Congress ahead of next week's elections, with polls showing unexpectedly competitive races in several reliably Republican states amid Trump's slipping approval ratings and voter concerns about the economy and the Iran war.
Democrats need to pick up a net of four Senate seats to gain a majority of 51 seats, and the seats in Alaska, Iowa and Kansas are among those the party is hoping to flip.
South Carolina
In South Carolina, Polymarket odds show Republican incumbent Darline Graham's advantage over Democrat Annie Andrews dropping by 11 points since last Friday. She had 79 percent odds to Andrews' 23 percent, a 56-point gap, on October 23. However, that has slipped to 73 percent while Andrews' odds are now 28 percent, a 45-point gap.
Andrews, a pediatrician, has fought an unexpectedly competitive race against Graham in the ruby red state.
Graham was appointed to fill the remaining months of her brother's term. Lindsey Graham, who died suddenly in July, had held the seat since 2003. Last week, three male escorts alleged in a documentary that the late senator had paid them for sexual encounters.
In a sign of the GOP's anxiety about the race, President Donald Trump traveled to South Carolina on Thursday, his second visit this month, to rally supporters in a state he won by 18 points in 2024.
Though Polymarket favors Graham, recent polls show a much more competitive race. The RealClearPolling average of recent polls puts Graham ahead by 2.7 points, 47.7 percent to Andrews' 45 percent.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
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Alaska
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola's advantage over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan has narrowed from a 49-point gap, 75 percent to 26 percent, on October 23 to 35 points, 68 percent to 33 percent, on Polymarket as of Friday.
Recent polls have shown Peltola either narrowly ahead or effectively tied with Sullivan, despite Trump's double-digit victory in the state in 2024.
On Thursday, Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation after The New York Times reported that Democratic operatives were allegedly involved in recruiting another candidate with the same name as Sullivan.
Dunleavy wrote on X that he was directing the Department of Public Safety "to investigate whether this scheme violated Alaska's laws and whether criminal charges or civil action are warranted. The evidence will determine what happens next."
Iowa
In Iowa, Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson's 16-point advantage over her Democratic opponent, state Representative Josh Turek, has fallen to 5 points on Polymarket. She had odds of 59 percent on October 23 compared to Turek's 43 percent, but her chances have since slipped to 53 percent compared to Turek's 48 percent.
Recent polls have shown a much more competitive race for a seat the GOP considers pivotal for preserving the party's Senate majority.
The RealClearPolling average of polls gives Hinson a 0.2-point lead over Turek, 46 percent to 45.8 percent.
Ohio
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown's advantage over Republican Senator Jon Husted has tightened by 4 points on Polymarket in the past week.
Brown's lead on the platform moved from 39 points, 70 percent to Husted's 31 percent, on October 23 to 35 points, 68 percent to 33 percent on Friday.
Polls and prediction markets indicate that Trump's recent visits to campaign for Husted have failed to deliver a lasting boost for the incumbent. Recent polls have shown Brown with a narrow lead. RealClearPolling's average gives him a 2.6-point lead over Husted.
Kansas
In Kansas, Polymarket shows the race between Republican Senator Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton has tightened significantly.
Marshall's advantage was 23 points on October 23, 62 percent to 39 percent, but that has narrowed to 3 points on Friday, 53 percent to 50 percent.
Marshall has been facing a tough challenge from Hamilton in a state Trump won by 16 percentage points and where Democrats have not won a Senate election in almost a century.
What the Experts Say
Cal Jillson, a professor of political science at Texas Southern Methodist University, told Newsweek that the states "all had Republican senators and state leaders, and in this election cycle, four of them are leaning Democrat. This tells you quite clearly that the playing field is tilting increasing toward the Democrats."
He added that the data from polls and Polymarket "suggest a good Democrat year, but the partisan history of these states is Republican, so voters will be conflicted as the enter the voting booth; Tuesday night we'll find out which way they went."
Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, said prediction market movements reflect expectations about the election rather than providing a guarantee of what will happen.
"These are betting odds and as such indicate how people are reacting to the polls, and what they EXPECT to happen, just like in the stock market," Reeher said. "In some ways, they are more useful than polls, if the bettors know what they're doing."
He added that some narrowing in the closing stages of the campaign cycle should not be surprising.
"I would expect all of them to tighten as the day approaches because that is what usually happens in campaigns, and the bettors are reacting to that," he continued.
Reeher added: "Most of these odds are moving in a Republican direction, probably in reaction to the evidence suggesting that the blue wave may be more muted than some anticipate."
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson, Grayson Thomas and Shakeema Edwards.
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