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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Democrats begin Election Day on Tuesday favored to capture the Senate, but several races central to their path remain within the range of the polling margins of error.
Silver Bulletin gave Democrats an 81.5 percent chance of control at 2 p.m. ET Monday, with an average projection of 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican seats.
VoteHub placed their probability at 68 percent, while Decision Desk HQ gave them a 65 percent chance and projected a 52-48 chamber.
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Democrats need a net gain of four seats for outright control because Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie in favor of Republicans.
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Why It Matters
Senate control will determine which party leads committees, advances legislation and confirms presidential nominees during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term.
Democrats' path depends on several close contests moving in the same direction.
What to Know
Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that a small numerical advantage does not necessarily amount to a meaningful lead when candidates’ possible ranges overlap.
“A 48-44 race that’s within the margin of error is not necessarily implying a lead for one of the candidates,” he said. “Statistically, it’s a dead heat.”
Likely-voter models create further uncertainty because pollsters use different methods to identify which respondents will cast ballots.
“Deciphering who the likely voters are and being accurate about that for Election Day is as much an art as it is a science,” Panagopoulos said.
Against that uncertain backdrop, eight contests stand out as the races most likely to determine control of the upper chamber of Congress.
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Alaska
Democrat Mary Peltola, a former representative and the first Alaska native to serve in Congress, is challenging Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in a ranked-choice election.
Silver Bulletin put Peltola up 2.6 points, 47.8 percent to 45.1 percent. Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 61 percent chance and rated the contest Lean Democratic.
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Iowa
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, a former television journalist, faces Democrat Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic wheelchair-basketball gold medalist.
Silver Bulletin showed Turek leading by 0.7 points, 47.3 percent to 46.6 percent. Decision Desk HQ gave Republicans a 53 percent chance, effectively treating Iowa as a coin flip.
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Kansas
Democrat Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of the nation’s largest United Methodist congregation, is attempting to unseat Republican Senator Roger Marshall in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
Silver Bulletin put Hamilton up 3.3 points, 49.4 percent to 46.1 percent. Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 51 percent chance, its closest Senate forecast.
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Ohio
Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a return to Washington against Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by Vance.
Silver Bulletin gave Brown a 3-point advantage, 48.3 percent to 45.3 percent. Decision Desk HQ rated Ohio a toss-up and assigned Democrats a 54 percent probability of winning.
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Maine
Democrat Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former state Senate president, is challenging Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term.
Silver Bulletin placed Jackson above 50 percent and 4 points ahead, 50.3 percent to 46.3 percent.
Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 65 percent chance and rated the race Lean Democratic.
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Michigan
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, faces Republican former Representative Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and House Intelligence Committee chair.
Silver Bulletin showed El-Sayed leading by 4.7 points, 49.9 percent to 45.2 percent. Decision Desk HQ placed his probability of winning at 75 percent, making Michigan less precarious for Democrats than the other races examined.
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South Carolina
Republican Senator Darline Graham, appointed after the death of her brother, Lindsey Graham, faces Democrat Annie Andrews.
Silver Bulletin gave Graham Nordone a 1.3-point lead, 47.1 percent to 45.8 percent. Decision Desk HQ favored the Republican with a 61 percent chance but classified the race as Lean Republican.
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Texas
Democratic state Representative James Talarico is challenging Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for a seat the GOP would ordinarily expect to retain.
Silver Bulletin placed Talarico ahead by 3.5 points, 49.8 percent to 46.3 percent. Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 62 percent probability and rated Texas as Lean Democratic.
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Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and Dave Siminoff.
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