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By Joe Edwards
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Americans in northern and mountainous parts of the country could have the best odds for a white Christmas this year, while those in the South are unlikely to see one, according to a recent forecast from Farmers’ Almanac.
A map issued by the publication shows which parts of the country may have the best chances for snow on the ground on Christmas morning, with the Rocky Mountains, northern Midwest and inland Northeast among the areas given an advantage.
While hurdles in the way of a white Christmas will likely vary by region, Farmers’ Almanac editor Tim Konrad told Newsweek that temperatures could be a common factor.
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“Mild weather can mean rain instead of snow—or melt snow that’s already fallen before December 25. Even a snowy December doesn’t guarantee a white Christmas if a warm spell arrives at the wrong time,” Konrad said.
He added that the ideal setup for a white Christmas is snow close to the date followed by sustained cold temperatures to help it stay on the ground.
The Farmers’ Almanac explained that its white Christmas guide combines the publication’s seasonal outlook for winter with historical snow-cover patterns and, as such, should be viewed as an “early regional assessment” rather than a confirmed forecast for December 25. It also cautioned against treating its regional summaries as statewide guarantees, noting that even neighboring mountain and valley communities can experience different Christmas morning conditions.
To be officially classed as a white Christmas, an area must have at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
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Which Regions Could See Snow This Christmas?
The Farmers’ Almanac map suggests northern and mountainous regions of the country have the best prospects of seeing a white Christmas in 2026, although the publication cautions that changing weather patterns could alter the picture for some.
Across the West, the outlook favors snow in the Rocky Mountains and at higher elevations in California, while depicting valleys and lower-lying areas as less certain. Lowland Washington and Oregon also fall into an uncertain category, with the map noting that conditions in mountain communities may differ.
Northern parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region are shown as having an advantage, though the Farmers’ Almanac suggests that potential thaws could limit snow cover.
In the Northeast, inland areas and locations farther north are given better prospects than communities along the coast, where the publication says rain or mixed precipitation can limit snow coverage.
The outlook for snow is least favorable across the South, including much of Texas, the Gulf Coast and Florida, where the map describes it as unlikely.
The Farmers’ Almanac suggested the prospects for Christmas snow across the South Central states and Southeast would hinge on cold air coinciding with stormy weather.
How The Farmers’ Almanac Predicts Weather
The Farmers’ Almanac says its predictions are produced using the publication’s long-standing formula developed in 1818. It says the method draws on natural cycles, solar activity, lunar influences and historical weather patterns.
“Though weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting, in particular, remains an inexact science, many longtime Almanac followers maintain that our forecasts are 80 percent to 85 percent accurate,” it says on its website.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Rebecca Flood and Emma Lee-Sang
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