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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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A Florida meteorologist has raised the alarm about the possibility of a tropical system forming this weekend or early next week in the Eastern Pacific, an "extremely rare" occurrence that has never hit that region in January, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek.
The warning comes long after the Eastern Pacific hurricane season ended on November 30. The season begins on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic season. Although highly unusual, tropical systems can form outside those dates.
Noah Bergren, who works as a senior meteorologist at Fox 35 in Orlando, posted the forecast on X on Monday night.
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"TROPICS? IN JANUARY? It's at least mildly possible this weekend into early next week in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico," Bergren posted. "A vigorous upper level trough may help spin up a surface low over the still warm ocean waters. Many models show at least a brief window for a small tropical system."
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DaSilva said there have been six tropical systems that have formed in the Central Pacific in January and several in the Atlantic as well, though he could find no reported cases of such a storm forming in the Eastern Pacific in January.
"It's exceptionally rare," DaSilva said. "The water temperatures are very cold...during this time of year. So it's really hard to get anything to form."
In addition to cool waters, wind shear is normally stronger during the winter months and can tear storms apart before they form. However, DaSilva said "the chance is not zero" that a tropical system, likely a subtropical storm, could form.
"It's a very low chance, 10 percent maybe that something could form down there in the next several days," he said. "I don't think it would be fully tropical. It would likely be subtropical because of those cooler ocean temperatures."
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) occasionally issues a name for subtropical systems. As of Wednesday morning, the NHC was not officially tracking any potential tropical disturbances in the Eastern Pacific, or in the Central Pacific or Atlantic, but NHC Warning Coordination Meteorologist Robbie Berg told Newsweek that the NHC was monitoring the situation.
"Right now, all we see is a trough of low pressure. Some model guidance shows it could spin up a weak depression in a couple days, but there's nothing there at the moment," Berg said. "If we think it has a higher chance of forming, we will issue a special outlook, but right now, probabilities are still too low."
Should such a storm form, DaSilva said he doubted it would impact California or Mexico. The storm would likely die in the cold water not long after it develops.
"Canadian and Euro AI models pretty consistent trying to advertise a weak tropical system off the coast of Mexico in the Pacific Ocean this weekend," Bergren said in a follow-up post on X. "Honestly, it would be really remarkable and rare if it actually happened. Already a mass of thunderstorms on the satellite [so it has] at least a brief fighting chance of happening."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) labels a tropical storm as "a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph [34 to 63 knots]."
A subtropical cyclone is defined as "a non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Subtropical cyclones originate over tropical or subtropical waters and have a closed circulation about a well-defined center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, the maximum winds occur relatively far from the center [greater than 60 nautical miles] and have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection."
Update 1/14/26, 2:11 p.m. ET: This article was updated to include comment from the National Hurricane Center.
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