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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Six states vote in primaries today, with a mix of safe races, competitive battlegrounds and quieter contests where the real action is downballot.
Voters in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania are choosing party nominees on May 19, setting November matchups for Senate, governor and key House seats.
Key Points
- Alabama's Republican contests are the most structurally volatile: an open U.S. Senate seat and a governor's race where the front-runner is dominant, but the Senate fight looks headed for a runoff.
- Georgia's GOP is choosing a Senate challenger for Jon Ossoff and battling through a crowded governor primary where undecideds have stayed unusually high.
- Kentucky is the day's key Republican-on-Republican battleground: the post-Mitch McConnell Senate primary plus the Thomas Massie showdown.
- Oregon's GOP governor primary is the tightest high-profile race on the board, with late polling signaling real movement.
- Pennsylvania’s governor primaries are uncontested, but general-election polling and one key House primary frame the battleground picture.
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These primaries lock in candidate quality, unify or fracture party coalitions, and shape the battlefield for a midterm cycle where margins are thin and turnout dynamics matter.
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Alabama: Tuberville Coasts as Senate Primary Heads Toward a Runoff
- Tommy Tuberville dominates the governor primary and is effectively uncontested at the top
- The former Auburn coach and current senator held a commanding lead across every demographic, age group, and region in a Cygnal poll.
- The GOP Senate race remains fragmented, with no candidate close to 50 percent
- A runoff for the Senate race looks likely unless one contender breaks late
Governor (Republican Primary)
A Cygnal survey, conducted April 29-30, 2026, of 500 likely Republican primary voters, with a plus-or-minus 4.4 percent margin of error, found Tuberville at 65 percent, Ken McFeeters at 7 percent, and Will Santivasci at 3 percent.
And a Quantus Insights poll, fielded October 13-14, 2025, of 1,050 likely voters, with a plus-or-minus 3.2 percent margin of error, found Tuberville leading at 63 percent, with McFeeters at 4 percent and 22 percent undecided.
U.S. Senate (Republican Primary)
The same Cygnal poll found Barry Moore at 36 percent, Steve Marshall at 25 percent, and Jared Hudson at 25 percent.
Meanwhile, a Tarrance Group poll conducted from April 11-14, 2026, of 500 likely Republican voters, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent in 95 out of 100 cases, found an even tighter three-way race, with Moore at 28 percent, Marshall at 27 percent, and Hudson at 24 percent.
Georgia: GOP Senate Front-Runner Emerges as Governor Race Stays Wide Open
- Mike Collins leads the Republican primary Senate field but remains well short of a majority
- The governor primary is tightly clustered, with high runoff risk
- Both races still hinge on undecided voters who could decide who makes the runoff
U.S. Senate (Republican Primary)
An InsiderAdvantage poll of 800 likely GOP primary voters, with a 3.5 percent margin of error, conducted May 16–17, 2026, put Collins at 32 percent, Derek Dooley at 26 percent, and Buddy Carter at 21 percent.
A Quantus Insights poll conducted April 28–May 2, 2026, of 1,677 likely voters, with a plus-or-minus 2.7 percent margin of error, found Collins leading on 33 percent, with Dooley at 23 percent and Carter at 14 percent. Another 3 percent backed other candidates, while 27 percent were undecided.
Governor (Republican Primary)
The same InsiderAdvantage poll found Rick Jackson leading with 31 percent, followed by Burt Jones at 27 percent and Brad Raffensperger at 16 percent, with Chris Carr on 10 percent.
And the same Quantus Insights poll similarly showed Jackson ahead on 27 percent, with Jones at 22 percent, Raffensperger at 14 percent and Carr at 8 percent. Another 15 percent backed other candidates, while 14 percent were undecided.
Idaho: Incumbents Cruise With Little Signs of a Competitive Primary
- Jim Risch is heavily favored and faces no serious primary threat
- Limited primary polling, with most data focused on the general election
- Governor's race shows little sign of real competition
U.S. Senate (Republican Primary)
A Public Policy Polling survey conducted March 16–17, 2026, of 639 registered voters, with a plus-or-minus 3.9 percent margin of error, found Jim Risch ahead on 48 percent, with independent candidate Todd Achilles at 34 percent. Another 18 percent of voters were undecided.
Kentucky: Barr Leads Senate Fight as Massie Faces Serious Pressure
- Andy Barr holds a clear lead but with a large undecided bloc
- The KY-04 race has tightened, with Massie under real threat
- Trump’s influence looms over both contests
US Senate (Republican Primary)
An UpONE Insights poll conducted May 9–11, 2026, of 600 likely voters, with a plus-or-minus 4.0 percent margin of error, found Andy Barr well ahead on 46 percent, with Daniel Cameron at 27 percent and Nate Morris at 8 percent. Another 3 percent backed other candidates, while 16 percent were undecided.
A Public Opinion Strategies survey conducted May 3–5, 2026, of 600 likely voters, with a plus-or-minus 4.0 percent margin of error, also showed Barr leading on 43 percent, with Cameron at 24 percent and Morris at 9 percent. Another 5 percent supported other candidates, while 19 percent were undecided.
KY-04 House (Republican Primary)
A new GrayHouse survey fielded May 16–17, 2026, of 435 likely GOP primary voters, with a plus-or-minus 4.7 percent margin of error, found Ed Gallrein leading 51 percent to 44 percent, with 5 percent undecided.
A Quantus Insights poll published May 13 and fielded May 11–12, 2026, of 908 likely GOP primary voters, with a reported weighted margin of error of 3.3 percent, found Gallrein ahead on 48.3 percent to Massie’s 43.1 percent.
Oregon: Dead Heat in Polling Even as Markets Favor Drazan
- A late poll shows a tight race within the margin of error
- Earlier surveys gave Drazan a clearer lead
- Markets still point to Drazan as the favorite
Governor (Republican Primary)
A Predict Oregon poll conducted May 7–13, 2026, of 656 likely Republican voters, with a plus-or-minus 3.83 percent margin of error, found Drazan at 40.5 percent, Ed Diehl at 37.6 percent, and Chris Dudley at 17.2 percent.
Earlier, a Hoffman Research survey of 620 likely voters, with a plus-or-minus 3.9 percent margin of error, found Drazan at 35 percent, Diehl at 18 percent, and Dudley at 14 percent.
Pennsylvania: Quiet Primaries but a Clear Governor Favorite and One Race to Watch
- The governor primaries are uncontested, so the best read on the race comes from general-election polling.
- Josh Shapiro holds a clear lead over Stacy Garrity in recent head-to-head surveys.
- Downballot, PA-07’s Democratic primary is crowded, with a large undecided share that could still scramble the outcome.
Governor (General Election Frame)
A Susquehanna Polling survey conducted March 18–29, 2026, of 700 likely voters, with a plus-or-minus 3.7 percent margin of error, found Shapiro at 58 percent and Garrity at 36 percent, with 6 percent other or undecided.
A Quinnipiac poll conducted February 19–23, 2026, of 836 registered voters, with a plus-or-minus 4.7 percent margin of error, found Shapiro on 55 percent to Garrity’s 37 percent.
PA-07 (Democratic Primary)
A Tavern Research poll fielded May 17, 2026, of 613 likely primary voters, with a 4.4 percent margin of error, put Bob Brooks at 26 percent, Ryan Crosswell at 16 percent, and Lamont McClure at 17 percent, with 31 percent undecided.
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