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By Anna Skinner
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The odds of El Niño developing later this year have jumped sharply, according to federal forecasters, with early U.S. weather impacts increasingly possible as soon as next month as the Pacific Ocean continues a rapid warming trend.
In its latest forecast discussion, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said El Niño is now likely to emerge during the May-July period, following weeks of rising subsurface ocean temperatures and shifting wind patterns across the equatorial Pacific. While conditions remain technically ENSO‑neutral for now, forecasters say the atmosphere‑ocean system is increasingly aligned toward El Niño, a climate pattern known to influence temperature, rainfall and storm tracks across the United States.
However, the change will be gradual, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines told Newsweek.
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"I think a lot of people have the impression that with El Niño coming this summer, that all of a sudden one day everything is going to change, and that's not going to be the case," Kines said.
Changes will occur, though, especially as El Niño gets underway. In a post on X on Thursday morning, the Climate Prediction Center shared a chart showing the skyrocketing chances of development.
"El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 – February 2027)," the post said.
The chart showed that ENSO-neutral conditions far outpaced El Niño chances in the April-June period, then reversed for the May-July period. El Niño chances remain high through the summer, nearing 100 percent from July through January, according to the chart.
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The change was noted by other meteorologists as well, with The Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll sharing that weather-related impacts associated with El Niño could begin within the next month.
"El Niño ocean-atmosphere coupling is coming soon. Rising air is predicted to develop across the tropical Pacific, signaling an atmosphere that's responding to the fast-warming ocean," Noll posted on X. "Weather-related impacts from this building El Niño should begin to be felt over the next month."
The first weather-related impacts the U.S. will see from El Niño are rising temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the summer months, Kines told Newsweek, as well as an increased risk of rain showers in the Rocky Mountains and U.S. Southwest beginning in June, both regions that desperately need the moisture.
Increased rain and thunderstorm activity in the Southeast is also associated with El Niño, but Kines said these impacts likely won't be felt until later in the year, potentially during the winter months.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a naturally recurring climate pattern driven by changes in ocean temperatures, winds, and atmospheric pressure across the tropical Pacific. It develops when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than average for an extended period, disrupting normal weather patterns worldwide.
According to NOAA, ENSO cycles typically shift every two to seven years and can last anywhere from several months to more than a year, depending on strength. El Niño events are officially identified when sea surface temperature anomalies exceed specific thresholds across multiple consecutive seasons, indicating a sustained warming trend rather than a short‑term fluctuation.
Some forecasters have warned a potential “super” El Niño could develop later this year, meaning an unusually strong warming of the Pacific that could amplify U.S. weather extremes, including heavier rainfall in parts of the South, altered jet streams, and broader global impacts if it fully materializes.
How Does El Niño Impact U.S. Weather?
El Niño’s influence on the U.S. varies by season, but forecasters say its impacts can begin to emerge even before the event is fully established. In the near term, developing El Niño conditions can affect jet stream behavior, sometimes altering storm tracks, precipitation patterns, and temperature anomalies across different regions of the country.
Historically, stronger El Niño events are associated with wetter conditions across parts of the southern U.S. and milder conditions in the North during the colder months, while also increasing wind shear over the Atlantic, a factor that can suppress hurricane development later in the year.
NOAA cautions, however, that spring and early‑summer transitions can be variable, and not all impacts appear immediately or uniformly across the country.
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