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More than 6.3 million Texans had voted early heading into Friday, the last day of early voting, in a Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton that polls still show as a toss-up.
That figure, as of Wednesday, is a 50 percent increase from the 4.2 million Texans who had voted at the same point in 2022, according to a Newsweek analysis of voting data. Nationwide, more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or by mail, nearly 10 million more than four years ago.
Democrats are chasing their first statewide win in Texas since 1994, while Republicans, who hold a 53-47 Senate majority, are counting on a late push from their own voters, who tend to wait, to offset heavy early turnout in the state's big Democratic-leaning counties.
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Newsweek reached out to the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment via email on Friday.
Early Voting Turnout in Texas
In Harris County, which includes Houston, 862,700 people had voted as of Wednesday, compared with 564,500 at the same point in 2022, according to voting records reviewed by Newsweek. The county set a midterm record on the first day of early voting, when more than 127,000 people cast ballots, while Dallas County logged more than 88,000, its most on an opening day for any election, The Texas Tribune reported.
Harris County has voted Democratic in recent elections by varying margins. In 2024, former Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by nearly 6 percentage points over Trump, while Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred won it by roughly 11 points over Republican Senator Ted Cruz.
Turnout in Tarrant and Denton counties hit about 32 percent of registered voters by early this week. The Rio Grande Valley was running about 64 percent ahead of its 2022 pace, though all four counties there trailed the state average, and Starr and Willacy sat near 17 percent.
Texas also has a record 19 million registered voters, 7.7 percent more than before the last midterm. The Secretary of State's office is expected to post Friday's totals over the weekend.
How It Compares to Past Elections
Democrats keep measuring this year against 2018, when Beto O'Rourke came within 2.6 points of Republican Senator Ted Cruz on the back of unusually high midterm turnout. About 53 percent of registered Texans voted that year, and nearly three-quarters of ballots were cast early or by mail.
Against the last midterm, 2026 is well ahead. By the 10th day of early voting, 31.4 percent of registered voters had cast ballots in person, compared with 22.36 percent on the matching day in 2022, according to state data. The gap was there from the start: 4.12 percent on day one this year, 2.7 percent four years ago.
A presidential year is another story. In 2024, in-person turnout had reached 38.87 percent by day 10.
The race against 2018 has been tighter. After seven days, 23.4 percent of registered voters had voted, slightly behind the 24.3 percent at that point in 2018, a Texas Tribune analysis found. By early this week KERA had 2026 at about 26 percent, ahead of the roughly 24 percent recorded at the same stage eight years ago.
Texas political analysts and experts have projected that as many as 10 million Texans could vote, near the 2018 rate.
Who is voting has shifted as well. Through the first week, voters with a history in Democratic primaries made up 35 percent of early ballots, edging out the 33 percent with Republican primary history. Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas, who has watched the trend since March, when Democratic primary turnout beat Republicans' in raw numbers, says he is worried.
"That was a concerning data point back then and it still worries me a bit now," he told Newsweek.
Hispanic voters accounted for 18 percent of early voters through last Sunday, a point higher than in 2024 and 2 points above 2022, his data showed.
Texas does not register voters by party, though, and primary history only goes so far. Democrats have tried to keep expectations in check.
"It's fair to be skeptical, and even Texans, we are not counting any chickens here," Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist and director of the Lone Star Project, told Newsweek.
James Talarico Vs. Ken Paxton: What Latest Polls Show
Most recent surveys give Talarico a small edge. Almost none falls outside the margin of error.
CNN released a poll on Thursday showing Talarico narrowly ahead with five days to go. ActiVote's newest survey of 400 likely voters, fielded October 22 to 28, had him up 52.1 percent to 47.9 percent, a lead that grew from 2 points a week earlier. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 points.
Texas Public Opinion Research had Talarico ahead 51 percent to 47 percent among 969 likely voters surveyed October 15 to 18, with a 3.9-point margin of error. His lead in that series has slipped by about a point a month since August, though he still carried independents 66 percent to 28 percent.
A Fox News poll of 1,398 likely voters, taken October 15 to 19, found the race tied at 49 percent after Talarico led by 2 in September. Texas Southern University put the Democrat up 49 percent to 47 percent.
Fox's September survey also caught how differently voters see the two men. Talarico's favorability was 8 points positive; Paxton was 18 points underwater.
The University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs had Talarico at 48 percent and Paxton at 46 percent among 2,000 likely voters polled October 10 to 14, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent and a 2.9-point margin of error.
Party loyalty drove much of that result. Ninety-eight percent of Democrats in the poll backed Talarico, while 88 percent of Republicans backed Paxton and 6 percent planned to cross over. Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist who co-authored the survey, told Houston Public Media those defections are "the difference between Paxton being ahead by a few points and Talarico being ahead by a few points."
Why Republicans Are Banking on Election Day
Republican voters in Texas are more likely than Democrats to wait for Election Day. Surveys by Joshua Blank, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, show about two-thirds of Texas Democrats prefer to vote early, while Republicans are closer to evenly split. In Texas Politics Project polling, 40 percent of Republicans said they planned to vote on Election Day.
The Democratic edge among voters with a primary history has been shrinking. CBS Texas reported it was down to nearly 57,000 ballots through Wednesday, and Republican researchers cited by NBC DFW said more than 1 million reliably Republican voters still had not voted as of Thursday.
Mike Madrid, a former GOP strategist who has followed the race closely, said earlier this month that GOP turnout was the number he was watching most. "What I'm really keeping an eye on is what the turnout rate for Republicans is going to be," he told Newsweek.
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In his view, Democrats need what he called "the perfect trifecta" to win Texas: "very high Democratic turnout, a historic break of independents away from Republicans and depressed and defected turnout amongst Republicans. You need all three of those to win Texas."
Turnout has lagged in rural counties. Republican consultant and data analyst Derek Ryan said on social media that turnout there was about 21 percent of registered voters, trailing the state's more heavily Democratic population centers.
Rural margins alone may not be enough for Paxton. "Now he's going to crush Talarico in the rural areas, but that's not a large enough share," Jones told Newsweek.
Governor Greg Abbott and Paxton spent Monday working deep-red territory, including a joint rally in Wichita Falls. Vice President JD Vance followed on Thursday in Parker County, west of Fort Worth, and told supporters to vote Friday or on Election Day.
In Corpus Christi, Republican Greg Graves told KEDT he backed Senator John Cornyn in the primary but was fine voting for Paxton now.
Steinhauser acknowledged that Democrats are more enthusiastic this year but did not count his party out. "I think that Republicans still can win," he said. "I still think there's a decent chance for them to win."
Talarico vs. Paxton: An Expensive Senate Race
Talarico holds a wide fundraising lead. He had raised $146.3 million in total campaign receipts through October 14, compared with $22.3 million for Paxton, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
Outside money has narrowed the gap on the airwaves. Republican-aligned PACs backed by Trump, Senate Republican leaders and Elon Musk have committed more than $214 million to advertising supporting Paxton and attacking Talarico, according to media-tracking firm AdImpact.
Talarico has also signed up more donors in Republican territory. A Newsweek analysis of third-quarter FEC filings found that Collin County, north of Dallas, gave Talarico $480,000 from about 1,850 donors and Paxton $223,000 from about 490. In Montgomery County, the GOP stronghold north of Houston that includes The Woodlands, Talarico raised $220,000 to Paxton's $162,000.
The pattern held in West Texas. Talarico raised $96,086 from 306 Lubbock County donors in the third quarter, compared with $53,204 from 97 donors for Paxton, according to Newsweek's review of FEC records.
Why Texas Senate Race Matters in 2026 Midterm Elections
The race could help decide who controls the Senate. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four to take the majority.
The seat opened when Paxton, the state's attorney general, beat Cornyn in the May runoff with 63 percent of the vote. President Donald Trump, who had called both men friends, endorsed Paxton on May 19.
Talarico, a state representative from the Austin area, won the Democratic nomination in March over Representative Jasmine Crockett of Dallas. He has built his campaign around the cost of living, and voters have picked him over Paxton on that issue in every Texas Public Opinion Research poll since May.
Hundreds of millions of dollars have poured into the race as Republicans defend a state Democrats have not won statewide in more than three decades. Trump visited Texas earlier this week, his third trip to the state in a month.
Polls open at 7 a.m. on Tuesday and close at 7 p.m.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Kate Nalepinski and Trevor Davies
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