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By Mandy Taheri
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Betting odds on President Donald Trump leaving office, through any means including resignation, impeachment or removal under the 25th Amendment, before the end of his term have risen in recent days on the prediction market Kalshi.
Why It Matters
Democratic critics of the president have called for his impeachment upon his return to office, but those efforts have not advanced through the Republican-controlled Congress.
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Critics have pointed to Trump's foreign policy, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his recent rhetoric to acquire Greenland, among others, as reasons as to why he should be impeached, saying he is abusing his presidential powers. Republican Representative Don Bacon has signaled he could back an impeachment effort.
Some Democrats have also floated the idea of invoking the 25th Amendment, which allows members of the president's Cabinet to legally remove him from office if they do not believe he is fit to lead.
Betting odds reveal trader sentiment about current events, but they may not necessarily be predictive.
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What To Know
The prediction market, which has a volume of nearly $1.4 million bets on Wednesday, has jumped up in predictions that Trump will be “out as president” before his term ends in 2029.
On January 13, bettors said there was a 27 percent chance he would be out of the Oval Office before his term ends on January 20, 2029, whereas on January 21, there’s a 40 percent chance.
The market finds that if he is to leave office, it’s most likely to happen later in his term, with 34 percent believing he would be out before 2028 and 18 percent this year.
The market predictions come as more talk of Trump being impeached or removed form office via the 25th Amendment. However, any impeachment efforts must receive the support of a majority of the House of Representatives. The current makeup of Congress makes that difficult, as that would mean any impeachment bid must receive support from a handful of Republicans, who have not been supportive of those efforts thus far, although there has been some signaling of leeway, but not in strong numbers.
Bacon signaled earlier this month that some Republicans may support impeachment if Trump uses the military to take over Greenland, however, on Wednesday Trump dismissed speculation that he might use military power to acquire the Arctic island.
Although, control of the House is up for grabs in November, and Democrats are hopeful about their chances of victory. If Democrats win a majority of seats, they may move forward with impeachment.
Trump has previously faced impeachment efforts, with 7 GOP Senators voting alongside Democrats in 2021 to convict Trump on an impeachment charge for inciting the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
Some Democrats have brought renewed attention to the 25th Amendment, with Section 4 allows the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare in writing that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office, making the vice president the acting president. If the president contests that declaration, Congress must decide the issue. The president remains sidelined only if two-thirds of both the House and Senate vote that he is unable to serve. Congress has 21 days to reach a decision once the question is formally before it.
What People Are Saying
U.S. President Donald Trump said during his Davos speech on Wednesday: "Nobody can dispute it. We give so much, and we get so little in return. I've been a critic of NATO for many years, and yet I've done more to help NATO than any other president by far, than any other person. You wouldn't have NATO if I didn't get involved in my first term. … They have a choice: You can say yes, and we will be very appreciative, or you can say no, and we will remember."
Representative Yassamin Ansari, an Arizonan Democrat, said in an X post: “The president of the United States is extremely mentally ill and it’s putting all of our lives at risk. The 25th Amendment exists for a reason—we need to invoke it immediately.”
Representative Sydney Kamlager-Dove, a California Democrat, said in a January 19 X post: “Donald Trump is unfit to lead and clearly out of control. Invoke the 25th Amendment.”
Senator Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, said in a Monday X post: “Invoke the 25th Amendment.”
Democratic political commentator Harry Sisson said in an X post: “It’s 1 am and Trump is awake posting AI images of him taking over Greenland. This is where we are as a country. 25TH AMENDMENT NOW!!!”
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said in a statement on Monday: "Norway's position on Greenland is clear. Greenland is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Norway fully supports the Kingdom of Denmark on this matter. We also support that NATO in a responsible way is taking steps to strengthen security and stability in the Arctic. As regards the Nobel Peace Prize, I have clearly explained, including to President Trump what is well known, the prize is awarded by an independent Nobel Committee and not the Norwegian Government."
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday in Davos: "Let's not accept a global order which will be decided by those who claim to have, I would say, the bigger voice or the bigger stick."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday, per the Associated Press: "Now it's not the Collective West writing the rules but just one of its representatives. It's a major upheaval for Europe, and we are watching it. The Euro-Atlantic concept of ensuring security and cooperation has discredited itself."
What Happens Next
As Trump’s Greenland push continues to unfold, the market is likely to keep shifting.
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