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By Ewan Palmer
News Reporter
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Betting companies are offering odds on President Donald Trump potentially seeking a third term in office, despite him being constitutionally ineligible to run.
U,K bookmaker William Hill has recently offered odds on Trump winning the 2028 election, while online betting company Polymarket suggests there is a long-shot chance the Republican could repeal presidential term limits.
Why It Matters
Trump appears to be taking more seriously the suggestion that he could run for what would be an unconstitutional third term, proposing legal routes never before tested in U.S. history. Democrats previously warned during the 2024 campaign that Trump would govern as an authoritarian figure if he returned to the White House.
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What to Know
Trump told NBC's Kristen Welker on Sunday he was "not joking" about considering a third term in office, adding there are "methods which you could do it."
One option floated by Welker during the interview is having Vice President JD Vance lead the GOP ticket in 2028 with Trump as his running mate. Vance could then resign once in office in 2029, allowing Trump to assume the presidency for a third time.
Trump added there are "others too," but when asked for further details, he replied, "No."
The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution states: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once."
The wording of the 12th Amendment also states that anyone who is "constitutionally ineligible" to serve as president also cannot be vice president.
Any amendment to the Constitution would require approval by a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate and then ratification by at least 38 of the 50 U.S. states—meaning strong bipartisan support would be essential.
Legal experts have largely dismissed suggestions that Trump could bypass term limits by first serving as vice president.
William Hill is currently offering Trump 5/1 odds of winning the 2028 election at time of writing, despite questions about the legality of a third term. The bookmaker has Vance as the favorite at 5/2, with Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., third at 9/1.
Polymarket, an online platform where users bet on the likelihood of world events, is also offering people the chance to bet "yes" or "no" on whether the two-term presidential limit will be repealed.
The site currently gives a 5 percent chance that Trump will either sign a bill into law aiming to repeal or alter the 22nd Amendment, or that the Supreme Court will rule in a way that allows a president to serve more than two terms by July 31, 2025.
A number of Trump allies are also pushing the idea that he could run for a third term because his two terms were not consecutive.
Republican Representative Andy Ogles of Tennessee introduced a House Joint Resolution in January to amend the 22nd Amendment, proposing that no person shall be elected president more than three times or serve any additional term after serving two consecutive terms.
The wording of Ogles' proposal would prevent previous two-term presidents such as Barack Obama or George W. Bush from running again.
Steve Bannon, former White House chief strategist and host of the War Room podcast, has frequently argued that the Constitution allows Trump to run again because his two terms were not back-to-back.
What People Are Saying
A William Hill spokesperson told Newsweek: "Donald Trump's recent comment that he is 'not joking' about a third term as President has created a tide of speculation and he's been a popular pick in our market to win the 2028 U.S. election. We have him at 5/1 second favorite to be re-elected in 2028."
Former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani previously told Newsweek: "Politically, Trump doesn't have the votes to repeal the 22nd Amendment, either in Congress or the states. I would expect even the conservative Supreme Court to enforce the ban on a third term. Failing to do so would trigger a constitutional crisis and throw the country into chaos. Of course, Trump hasn't been shy about pushing or even ignoring legal boundaries. But there is no legal way for him to do so when it comes to a third term."
Harvard law professor and constitutional expert Laurence Tribe posted on X, formerly Twitter: "Anyone discounting a third Trump term per the 22nd Amendment + the 12th Amendment is thinking magically: The 22nd doesn't bar serving a 3rd term, only being elected 3 times. The 12th doesn't bar running for VP unless 'ineligible' to serve as Pres, but Trump isn't ineligible."
Derek Muller, a professor of election law at Notre Dame, told The Associated Press: "I don't think there's any 'one weird trick' to getting around presidential term limits. A lame-duck president like Donald Trump has every incentive in the world to make it seem like he's not a lame duck."
Senator John Curtis, a Utah Republican, to NBC News in March when asked about a possible third Trump term: "I wouldn't have supported a third term for [former President] George Washington," he responded, laughing. "That's a no, yeah."
What Happens Next
Any attempt for Trump to run a third term in 2028 one way or another is sure to be met with legal challenges.
There are currently no plans to take Ogles' amendment proposal to a House vote.
Update 04/02/2025: This article has been updated with comment from William Hill.
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