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By Jordan King
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President Donald Trump has said polls are "rigged" as many of them show a struggling approval rating at the end of his first year back in office.
He posted an image from the Trafalgar Group which said "over 50 percent of voters approve of President Trump" on Truth Social on Tuesday with the added caption: "The real number is 64%, and why not, our Country is ‘hotter’ than ever before."
The Trafalgar Group, which is classed as "center-right" by Media Bias Fact Check, has Trump’s approval rating at 50.2 percent (46.7 percent strongly approve and 3.5 percent approve) over a 44.6 percent disapproval rating, according to its latest survey carried out among 1,098 likely general election voters between December 26 and 27.
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The poll lists a 2.9 percent margin of error.
However, other major polling aggregators, including Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, shows Trump’s approval rating dropping from 51.9 percent in January to 42.2 percent in December.
Similarly, RealClearPolitics has given him a 43.4 percent approval rating, against a 53.3 percent disapproval rating.
But polls have consistently underestimated the popularity of Trump, who has outperformed pre-election expectations in all three of his presidential campaigns.
Newsweek has contacted the White House, via email, for comment.
Why It Matters
Presidential approval ratings serve as critical barometers of national mood and can foretell the outcomes of key elections. With the 2026 midterms on the horizon and control of Congress hanging in the balance, Trump's standing with the public impacts not only his policy agenda but also Republican electoral prospects.
It comes as the Democratic Party has seen several notable gains this year in down-ballot races. Most recently, Democrat Renee Hardman's victory in the Iowa state Senate special election Tuesday night has blocked Republican efforts to regain a supermajority in the chamber.
What To Know
Trump wrote on Truth Social: "The polls are rigged even more than the writers. The real number is 64%, and why not, our Country is ‘hotter’ than ever before. Isn’t it nice to have a STRONG BORDER, No Inflation, a powerful Military, and great Economy??? Happy New Year!"
But most national polls show Trump's approval rating well below these figures. The Silver Bulletin average, an aggregator run by polling analyst Nate Silver, currently estimates Trump’s net approval rating at -12, with especially low ratings on core issues such as immigration (-8), the economy (-20.5), trade/tariffs (-20.5) and inflation (-28.8) as of Tuesday.
The RealClearPolitics average places Trump’s job approval at 43.4 percent with 53.3 percent disapproving as of Tuesday, a negative spread of 9.9 percentage points that has remained relatively steady for months.
National and demographic polls reveal similar or worse figures. In a recent AtlasIntel poll, conducted December 15-19, Trump has a 39.3 percent approval versus 59.6 percent disapproval, for a net approval of -20.3 points. Some 2,315 respondents were surveyed and there was a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
AtlasIntel was rated by Nate Silver as the most accurate pollster of the 2024 election.
Trump has often spoken out against polls, branding them inaccurate and, in April, calling for them to be investigated for "election fraud."
The Pew Research Center attributes this common underestimation to the people being most likely to take part in polls also being more likely to vote for a Democratic president.
"This is super frustrating for pollsters," said Pew’s head methodologist Courtney Kennedy, "because we start by reaching out to a random sample of Americans, but after we’ve collected the data, it turns out that the people who have participated are no longer random and representative."
What People Are Saying
Pollster veteran Nate Silver said in his most recent Substack on Trump’s approval rating: "Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of statistical variation but because pollsters have long had trouble pegging down Trump’s popularity—and often underestimated it."
White House spokesman Kush Desai previously defended the administration’s record, telling Newsweek: "Over the past year, the Trump administration has delivered critical progress to turn the page on Joe Biden’s economic disaster: cooling inflation, rising real wages, private-sector job growth, and trillions in investments to make and hire in America. The Trump administration will continue to build on this progress in the new year to continue delivering economic relief for the American people."
What Happens Next
Trump’s approval ratings are expected to remain volatile as the 2026 midterms approach, with both parties focusing on issues driving dissatisfaction.
Control of Congress remains narrowly divided, heightening the stakes for both the administration and the opposition. Polling will likely become an even greater focus as party leaders, candidates, and theorists strategize around Trump’s political future—as both sides aim to win over the increasingly decisive demographics of young and working class Americans.
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