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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump returns to Ohio today to campaign for Jon Husted, but neither polling nor prediction markets suggest his previous visits delivered a lasting boost for the incumbent Republican senator in the state’s special U.S. Senate election.
Both campaigns are now fighting for turnout before the November 3 election as Trump prepares to appear in Chillicothe, his third Ohio stop in 26 days.
The rally will also be the fifth visit to the state this month by either the president or Vice President JD Vance, who vacated the seat to join the Trump administration.
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Democrat Sherrod Brown currently leads Husted by 3.3 points in the RealClearPolling average, 48.2 percent to 44.9 percent, while prediction markets give the former senator a wider advantage.
At the time of writing, Kalshi priced the race at 68 percent for Brown and 32 percent for Husted. Polymarket put them at 69 percent and 31 percent respectively.
While polling has remained broadly stable, prediction markets have moved against Husted since Trump’s first visit.
Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, told Newsweek that unified control of Washington could make it difficult for Republican candidates to distance themselves from public dissatisfaction.
"There’s no escaping accountability when voters are looking for a finger to point," he said. "They know exactly where to point it, and right now it’s pointing directly at Republicans."
That dynamic may complicate the value of repeated presidential visits.
While Trump can energize the Republican base, each appearance also connects Husted more closely with an administration carrying the burden of voter concern over prices, health care and federal policy.
Panagopoulos also pointed to pressure on working- and middle-class communities, including concern about health care and the effects of reductions in government programs.
"Some of Trump’s policies have hit the Midwest especially hard, particularly farmers affected by his trade policies and tariffs," he said.
Newsweek emailed the Husted and Brown campaigns for comment on Wednesday morning and is awaiting responses.
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Why It Matters
Midterm elections have historically created difficult conditions for the president’s party, making every competitive Senate seat important to control of Congress.
Republican concern is particularly striking in a state Trump carried by 11.2 points in 2024.
The current contest will determine who completes the Senate term won by Vance in 2022 before he resigned to become vice president.
Key Points
- Prediction markets have moved toward Brown since Trump began his October campaign swing, although market prices do not prove the rallies caused that shift.
- Three major election forecasters regard Ohio’s Senate contest as highly competitive.
- The latest survey from Echelon Insights has the candidates level within a relatively wide state margin of sampling error.
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Trump Returns Without a Clear Husted Bounce
Trump opened the run in Vandalia, near Dayton, on October 3, telling supporters to vote as though his own name were on the ballot.
Nine days later, the president appeared in Youngstown to campaign for Husted and Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
Individual surveys have produced results ranging from a two-point Husted lead to a six-point Brown advantage.
The averages provide a steadier picture of a race in which the Democrat holds a narrow but persistent edge.
Brown led by 4.2 points in the Silver Bulletin polling average at the first rally, with 48.3 percent to Husted’s 44.1 percent. By the Youngstown appearance on October 12, the gap had narrowed to 3.8 points, 48 percent to 44.2 percent.
Ahead of the third visit, the average stood at 48.2 percent for Brown and 45.1 percent for Husted, a margin of 3.1 points.
That represents a 1.1-point movement toward the Republican across the three dates, driven primarily by a one-point increase in Husted’s support. It is a modest improvement, but not enough to show that the president’s appearances caused a meaningful change.
The Silver Bulletin average weights surveys according to factors including pollster quality, sample type and house effects. It also adjusts older polls to reflect movement in the national political environment.
Brown led by 3.6 points in the Call the Map polling average just before Trump made his first October visit to Vandalia.
That advantage narrowed to 3.4 points from October 6 through 8 before returning to 3.6 points around the president’s second appearance, in Youngstown on October 12.
The margin briefly reached 3.8 points on October 13, settled at 3.6 points through October 17 and stood at 3.2 points ahead of Wednesday’s rally in Chillicothe.
Across the period covering all three trips, the average therefore shifted by just four-tenths of a point toward Husted, far too little to identify a meaningful rally effect.
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Latest Survey Finds a Dead Heat
The newest published survey, conducted by Echelon Insights for NetChoice from October 16 through 23, placed both candidates at 47 percent.
It surveyed 508 members of Ohio’s likely electorate and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.2 points. This means neither candidate held a statistically significant lead.
Its sample appeared favorable to Republicans on paper: 53 percent identified as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, compared with 42 percent who identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party.
Despite that composition, the Senate ballot remained level.
This suggests either that Brown was attracting voters beyond the Democratic coalition, that Husted had not fully consolidated Republican-leaning voters, or a combination of both.
The result also underlines why the averages are more informative than a single poll.
One survey may capture a temporary movement or use a sample and methodology that produce a different result from other pollsters.
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Prediction Markets Move Toward Brown
Prediction markets turn election contracts into a real-time gauge of trader sentiment. However, liquidity, bias and market structure can distort their price; this means they should supplement rather than replace polling and statistical forecasts.
On U.S.-regulated platform Kalshi, Husted’s implied chance moved from 39.4 percent around the first visit to 40.7 percent near the second. It then fell to 32 percent ahead of the third, a net decline of 7.4 percentage points from the first visit.
Polymarket showed a more consistent decline, pricing the Republican at 42 percent in early October, 39 percent around Youngstown and 31 percent at the time of writing, a drop of 11 percentage points.
Those prices incorporate polling, spending, early voting and news beyond the rallies, so they should be read as traders’ changing assessment rather than a verdict on Trump’s influence.
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Forecasters Keep Ohio in the Toss-Up Column
The difference between the polling average and prediction-market prices has not persuaded major forecasters to move the contest out of their most competitive category.
The Cook Political Report rates Ohio a toss-up, a classification it uses when either party has a good chance of winning.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from Leans Republican to Toss-up in June and retained that classification in its October ratings.
Decision Desk HQ also labels the contest a toss-up while giving Brown a 56 percent probability of victory. Its model combines polling, fundamentals and prediction markets rather than treating any single source as decisive.
Turnout Is the Remaining Test
"Midterms really come down to turnout," Hunter Lovell, the Republican National Committee’s Midwest regional communications director, told Spectrum News. He said that electing Husted was necessary to maintain the party’s Senate majority.
Wednesday’s rally gives Trump one final opportunity to mobilize supporters before voting concludes.
The question is no longer whether another visit generates attention, but whether three presidential appearances can turn that attention into enough Republican ballots.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Register for our November 10 discussion, 'Newsweek Webinar: How the Politics of AI Could Shape Midterms,' which will examine how AI policy played in key races, data centers, lobbying and the political lines that emerged.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and James Debens
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