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By Andrew Stanton
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President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested that Greenland could become part of the United States, which he views as necessary for national security, but betting odds markets view an invasion of Greenland as a long shot.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement to Newsweek, "President Trump believes that Greenland is a strategically important location that is critical from the standpoint of national security, and he is confident Greenlanders would be better served if protected by the United States from modern threats in the Arctic region. The President is committed to establishing long-term peace at home and abroad."
Newsweek reached out to the Danish Foreign Affairs Ministry for comment via email.
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Why It Matters
Trump has argued that the U.S. acquiring Greenland, an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, is critical for U.S. security given the threats posed by Russia and China. The White House has declined to take off the table the option of using the military to acquire Greenland.
But that position has ruffled feathers on the global stage—European allies view it as a threat to Greenland's sovereignty and to NATO. Several NATO members plan to increase military presence in Greenland in light of Trump’s threats.
What To Know
In leading markets, traders are betting that Trump will not actually take military action to annex Greenland. Polymarket, Kalshi and BetOnline all show Greenland acquisition as a long shot despite escalating tensions over the possibility.
Polymarket betting odds on Thursday showed only an 18 percent chance that the U.S. would acquire Greenland by the end of 2026. While that is relatively low, it does mark an increase from late in 2025, when there was only about an 8 or 9 percent chance, according to the market.
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A separate Kalshi market asking whether the U.S. will “take control of any part of Greenland” at any point during Trump’s term suggested that it remains a bit less unlikely. On Thursday, the market gave a 41.5 percent chance, up from a 33.5 percent chance at the end of December.
However, Kalshi’s betting odds also showed there is only a 17.4 percent chance that Greenland would vote for independence in 2026.
BetOnline showed 5/1 odds that the U.S. would attack Greenland or Denmark before 2027. This means that for every $1 a person bets, they would win $5 if that actually happens. It means it is not particularly likely. The “no” answer had 1/10 odds, meaning it’s more of a favorite.
The question, “Will U.S. control Greenland before 2026?” had 4/1 odds.
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said on Wednesday there was still a "fundamental disagreement" on Greenland after meeting with U.S. administration officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in Washington.
Domestically, support for the U.S. invading Greenland has not been popular.
A recent YouGov poll found that only 6 percent of Americans support taking control of Greenland by military force; an additional 27 percent support it without force. The poll surveyed 1,134 adults from January 7-10, 2026.
Representative Don Bacon, a centrist Nebraska Republican who is not running for reelection, has dismissed the idea of taking over Greenland as “utter buffoonery” and warned it could lead to bipartisan impeachment efforts.
“If he went through with the threats, I think it would be the end of his presidency. And he needs to know: The off-ramp is realizing Republicans aren't going to tolerate this, and he's going to have to back off. He hates being told no, but in this case, I think Republicans need to be firm,” he said, according to the Omaha World-Herald.
What People Are Saying
Premier of Greenland Jens-Frederik Nielsen wrote on social media on Thursday: “Greenland is not for sale. Greenland does not want to be owned by the United States. Greenland does not want to be governed from the United States. Greenland does not want to be part of the United States.”
President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday: “The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security. It is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building. NATO should be leading the way for us to get it. IF WE DON’T, RUSSIA OR CHINA WILL, AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! Militarily, without the vast power of the United States, much of which I built during my first term, and am now bringing to a new and even higher level, NATO would not be an effective force or deterrent - Not even close! They know that, and so do I. NATO becomes far more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES.”
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen told reporters on Wednesday: “We, the kingdom of Denmark, continue to believe that the long-term security of Greenland can be ensured inside the current framework, the 1951 agreement on the defense of Greenland, as well as the NATO treaty. For us, ideas that would not respect territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark and the right of self-determination of the Greenlandic people are, of course, totally unacceptable.”
What Happens Next
Trump has made threats about annexing Greenland, but has not moved forward with actually doing so. It remains an issue that has loomed over U.S. relations with allies in Europe.
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