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By James Bickerton
News Reporter
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President Trump’s odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize this Friday have fallen noticeably over the past couple of days from 4.9 percent to 2.7 percent, according to the online betting website Polymarket.
Separately, bookmaker Star Sports is offering odds of 5/1 (16.7 percent) on Trump clinching the award, down from 2/1 (33.3 percent), as talks about a Gaza peace deal backed by the president continue.
Newsweek contacted the White House for comment on Tuesday via email outside of regular office hours.
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Why it Matters
President Trump has made repeated references to the Nobel Peace Prize over recent months, and during an address to top generals and admirals at the end of September, he suggested it would be “a big insult to our country” if he didn’t secure the award.
Trump has received a number of nominations for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, including from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as the governments of Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Rwanda and Cambodia.
Just eight months into his presidency, President Barack Obama was controversially awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, described this as “affirmative action” earlier this year.
What To Know
As of 8 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Polymarket was offering odds of just 2.7 percent on Trump winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, down from a high of 4.9 percent on Sunday.
Overall, Trump was Polymarket’s sixth favorite, with the list led by Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, which are providing support to the war-torn country, at 26 percent, followed by Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of the deceased Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny, at 10 percent.
Trump was also behind the International Court of Justice and Médecins Sans Frontières on 8 percent each, and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) with 7 percent. The high point for Trump was on August 19, when Polymarket gave Trump a 14.5 percent chance of winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.
Polymarket allows customers to buy and sell shares on the likelihood of future outcomes for between $0 and $1, and receive $1 per share if the outcome they predicted takes place.
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The price is controlled by the market, which operates via cryptocurrency. This means that lots of bets on one side of an event will make it cheaper to buy shares in a different outcome. Rather than betting against Polymarket itself, each customer is effectively betting against other website users.
Separately, Star Sports is currently offering odds of 5/1 (16.7 percent) on Trump winning, putting him third behind Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms on 9/4 (30.8 percent) and Yulia Navalnaya with 9/2 (18.2 percent).
The figure for Trump fell from 2/1 (33.3 percent) when the Trump-backed Gaza ceasefire deal was first announced at the end of September. Israel has accepted the deal while Hamas is still negotiating on certain points.
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek, William Kedjanyi, a political betting analyst at Star Sports, said: “The Nobel Peace Prize is announced this Friday and there’s been plenty of speculation around the possibility of US President Donald Trump winning the award. Trump has made it no secret that he’s been targeting this prize and has taken credit for a number of conflicts that have either come to a ceasefire or a halt during this year.
“The United States has been heavily involved in some of these negotiations, and less involved in others, but that hasn’t stopped Trump from putting himself front and centre claiming the credit for various resolutions in these conflicts.
“There are a lot of contenders for this year’s prize, but Trump has been a consistent mover in market, going from a price of around 16/1 into 2/1 after the Gaza announcement and has been floating between that price and 6/1 for the last three months, currently sitting at 5/1. Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms have gone into favouritism at 9/4, with Yulia Navalnaya second in the market at 9/2, and Trump rounding off the top three.”
Addressing Newsweek a White House spokesperson said: "Leaders from Pakistan, Cambodia, and other countries have called for President Trump to win the Nobel Peace Prize, and they are the best authority to do so because they have benefitted directly from the President’s peacemaking efforts. President Trump is being widely hailed as the Peacemaker-in-Chief because he deserves it, but he doesn’t care about betting odds – only saving lives."
What Happens Next
The Nobel Peace Prize selection is now in its final phase. The laureate or laureates will be announced on Friday, October 10, 2025, at 11:00 a.m. CEST at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo, per nobelpeaceprize.org, with the award ceremony and Nobel Lecture scheduled for December 10. All deliberations remain confidential for 50 years, in accordance with Nobel Foundation rules.
Update 10/7/25, 2:21 p.m. ET: This story has been updated to include comment from a White House spokesperson.
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