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By Hugh Cameron
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Presidential historian Allan Lichtman took a verbal jab at former President Donald Trump on Friday, mocking the Republican nominee for his apparent reluctance to debate Vice President Kamala Harris.
Lichtman, often dubbed the "Nostradamus" of U.S. presidential elections given his track record of accurately predicting the result, said on X (formerly Twitter) that "tough guy" Trump was "trying to duck out" of a potential debate after Trump's campaign team said he would not commit to taking part. Trump had previously agreed to two debates with President Joe Biden, including the one on June 27 that many commentators believe was the beginning of the end of Biden's re-election campaign.
In his post, Lichtman appeared to take a leaf out of Trump's book by giving the former president a nickname: "Donald Duck." Lichtman has been a frequent critic of Trump and what he sees as the former president's threat to American democracy.
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Newsweek has reached out to the Trump campaign for comment.
On Thursday, Harris told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland that she was willing to debate Trump, but that the Republican candidate was "backpedaling" on his commitment to do so.
Two days prior, Trump said that he would "absolutely" be willing to debate Harris, but that he was "not thrilled" with ABC hosting the encounter, which has been scheduled for September 10.
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On Thursday, however, the former president's camp said they would not agree to a debate until Harris had been confirmed as the Democratic nominee.
Communications Director Steven Cheung said: "Given the continued political chaos surrounding Crooked Joe Biden and the Democrat Party, general election debate details cannot be finalized until Democrats formally decide on their nominee."
"It would be inappropriate to schedule things with Harris because Democrats very well could still change their minds," Cheung's statement continued.
While Harris will not be the official nominee until delegates cast their votes in early August, she has already secured the support of far more than the 1,976 delegates needed to win the first round of voting, according to the Associated Press.
Along with the endorsement of the current president and other high-profile Democrats, her nomination is all but secured.
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Lichtman has previously suggested that Vice President Harris was on track to secure the White House, based on his "Keys to the White House" election prediction model.
Lichtman, along with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, created the system in 1981, utilizing methods that the latter designed for the prediction of earthquakes.
According to Lichtman, Harris meets eight criteria on the model's 13-point checklist, implying that she is on course for victory come November 5.
Lichtman's forecast holds a lot of sway in political circles, as his predictive method has been proven correct in all but one presidential elections since 1984.
The only outlier is the contentious 2000 election, when then-Vice President Al Gore clinched the popular vote, but fell five Electoral College votes behind then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush.
In 2016, Lichtman's model forecasted Trump's victory but inaccurately indicated that he would win the popular vote as well.
The 13 keys, as set out by Lichtman in a 2012 article for Social Education, are as follows:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
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Update, 7/29/24, 2:30 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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