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By Martha McHardy
US News Reporter
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Republican support among white women is on the decline, according to polling analysis, a trend that could impact former President Donald Trump's election chances.
Historically, white women have leaned Republican, with Mitt Romney winning the group by 9 points in 2012, and Trump by 6 and 7 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
However, this year Trump holds just a 1-point lead among white women, marking the weakest performance in this demographic for any Republican candidate this century, according to CNN political analyst Harry Enten, who cited an average of postelection surveys from 2012-2020 and preelection surveys this year.
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"He's doing the worst, if this holds, for a GOP candidate this century among white women," said Enten, who previously worked for FiveThirtyEight.
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Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris via email for comment.
Meanwhile, a Fox News poll conducted between October 11 and 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters found that Trump had a lead among white women of just 4 points. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus percentage points.
Another poll, conducted by Harris X between October 9 and 11 among 1,622 likely voters found that Trump's lead among white women stood at 3 points, with 34 percent of white women polled saying their vote is a vote against the Republican nominee. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
Without a strong backing from white women, who make up 36 percent of the electorate, Trump may face challenges, particularly as women voters have consistently favored Vice President Harris nominee, in polling.
Enten attributes the shift to issues like abortion, which is a top priority for female voters in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, where more than 80 percent of voters are white. In these states, a New York Times/Siena College poll from September, which surveyed 688 likely voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio, showed abortion is the leading concern for women, with 27 percent citing it as their top issue, compared to only 8 percent of men.
Although Trump has taken credit for the U.S. Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which ensured a constitutional right to abortion, he has adopted a more moderate stance on the issue compared to many of his Republican peers. Earlier this year, he refused to endorse a national abortion ban, instead supporting the idea that abortion laws should be determined by the states. He also expressed support for exceptions in cases of rape and incest.
However, during his debate with Harris on September 10, Trump avoided directly answering whether he would veto a national abortion ban if it came to his desk. When pressed by moderator Linsey Davis, he said, "I won't have to because it won't happen," and downplayed any discussions about it with his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance.
In contrast, Harris has positioned herself as a staunch advocate for reproductive rights. She has led the Democratic Party's efforts on the issue, launching a nationwide campaign for reproductive freedoms and visiting a Planned Parenthood branch in Minnesota earlier this year.
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Carrie Baker, a professor of women, gender and sexuality at Smith College in Massachusetts, agreed that Trump's platform surrounding reproductive rights is what has driven white women toward Harris.
"Over the last two years, due to Trump's appointment of anti-abortion extremists to the Supreme Court who overturned constitutional abortion rights, many states have banned and restricted access to abortion," Baker told Newsweek. "Pregnant women are being denied lifesaving medical care and are having to travel out of state to get the care they need. Some have died, like Amber Nicole Thurman and Cindi Miller in Georgia."
Thurman and Miller died after experiencing complications from abortion procedures after the state's six-week abortion ban was implemented following the repeal of Roe v. Wade.
"Criminalization of pregnant women has skyrocketed and access to contraception is decreasing," Baker added. "Women are feeling these realities on the ground, particularly young women."
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), nearly four in 10 (39 percent) women voters under 30 say abortion is the most important issue in the election, doubling the share who said the same in June.
Enten suggested that Harris' strong support for abortion rights may be a key factor in the shifting views of white women voters, particularly in battleground states.
"After Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, white women in these suburban areas, in these key battleground states, have very much turned against Republicans," he said, adding that white women could be crucial to a victory for Harris. "If she wins, it could ultimately be because she did so well with white women."
The KFF study also showed that women trust Harris more than Trump to look out for their interests (60 percent to 23 percent), and that white women voters trust Harris over Trump to address health care costs (43 percent to 42 percent) and 61 percent of white women believe that this presidential election will have a "major impact" on access to abortion in the U.S., up 8 percentage points since June.
Jackie Payne, founder and executive director of Galvanize Action—an advocacy group that targets ideologically moderate white women in rural, small town and suburban America to support left-of-center candidates, according to its website—added that while white women are "not a monolith," telling Newsweek that they are becoming "less undecided and increasingly choose the Harris/Walz ticket."
Payne cited research by Galvanize Action from September which found that moderate white women support Harris at 46 percent and Trump's 44 percent.
Katie Gaddini, associate professor in sociology at University College London, U.K., echoed Payne, telling Newsweek: "College-educated and younger white women voters who are concerned about reproductive rights support Harris, and her campaign has emphasized 'reproductive freedom' in recent months."
However, she said, "older white women without a college degree are still more likely to favor Trump, as their top concerns are the economy and immigration, and they feel Trump would deal with these issues better than Harris."
According to a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, conducted between September 27 and October 1, Trump holds a 13-point lead among non-college-educated white women, with 55 percent support to Harris' 42 percent. The poll surveyed 1,294 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
"It's very important to win white women voters this year because they vote at higher rates than white men and they are strongly motivated to vote this year," Baker said.
According to the latest Fox News poll, 72 percent of white women said they are "extremely motivated" to vote in November.
"White women represent the largest voting bloc in the nation and they're going to be pivotal in this election," Payne said. "It's clear that this group will play a major role in deciding our next president."
In August, the group White Women: Answer the Call raised $8.5 million for Harris' campaign through a Zoom call attended by 200,000 women. Organizer Shannon Watts cited the Trump campaign's rhetoric surrounding abortion as a reason for their support.
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