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By Martha McHardy
US News Reporter
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With the election just days away, Vice President Kamala Harris received a boost from the final round of polling in key Rust Belt states, where recent data shows her pulling ahead of Donald Trump.
According to the latest polling by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, conducted between October 16 and 23, Harris is 1 point up in Pennsylvania, while she is 4 points ahead of Trump in Michigan. Both results were within the margin of error.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
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Together, Pennsylvania and Michigan account for 34 crucial Electoral College votes, making them key targets for both campaigns. Polls in these states remain tight, with FiveThirtyEight showing Trump with a slim 0.4-point lead in Pennsylvania and Harris holding a 1-point lead in Michigan. President Biden successfully reclaimed both states from Trump in 2020, underscoring their importance in the upcoming race.
Meanwhile, individual polls from both states have fluctuated in terms of who has the lead, with surveys putting the candidates within 3 points of each other. However, the 4 most recent polls from Pennsylvania showed Trump ahead by between 1 and 3 points among likely voters.
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But Michigan and Pennsylvania are not the only close states. The University of Massachusetts Lowell poll put Trump 2 points ahead in North Carolina, well within the margin of error, while it showed Harris 7 points ahead in New Hampshire, outside of the margin of error. Polls are very close in both state, with RealClearPolitics classing both as toss-ups.
With less than a week to go, the election is close than ever. Polling aggregators currently suggest that Harris is winning the popular vote, while Trump is on track to win the Electoral College, which would send him back to the Oval Office. Pollster Nate Silver's forecast shows that Harris is 1.1 points ahead, with a 74 percent chance of winning the popular vote. However, owing to Trump's position in the swing states, his forecast shows that Harris has a 46 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to Trump's 54 percent chance.
Meanwhile, 538 shows Harris 1.4 points ahead nationally but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning to Harris' 48 percent.
Both aggregators show Trump ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Harris is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, though her margins have declined in both states in the past month. Silver's forecast shows Harris 0.1 points ahead in Nevada, while 538's forecast shows the candidates tied. Harris previously was ahead by at least 2 points in the state.
Silver's forecast shows that if Harris were to only win Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, she would have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the election. With Pennsylvania, her chances increase to 98.9 percent. But, according to Silver's model, there is only a 2.9 percent likelihood of this scenario occurring.
Nonetheless, all 7 battleground states are still in play for both candidates, with the race only getting tighter.
"The race has gone from almost a toss-up to definitely a toss-up," Jon Parker, senior lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the U.K., told Newsweek last week.
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