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By Rachel Dobkin
Weekend Reporter
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Economists polled in a new survey said that former President Donald Trump's proposed economic policies are worse for the economy than Vice President Kamala Harris' economic plan.
According to a Gallup poll conducted from September 16 to 28, the economy is the most important issue to voters in November's election. Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, and Harris, the Democratic nominee, have vastly different plans for handling the economy. Experts say Trump's plan would create higher inflation, interest rates and deficits.
Inflation has been cooling, and unemployment has remained low. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4 percent over the past 12 months, according to the Labor Department's numbers from September. This is the lowest pace at which consumer prices have been growing since February 2021. Meanwhile, unemployment was at 4.1 percent in September. It has remained around or below 4 percent since November 2021 after peaking during the COVID-19 pandemic at 14.8 percent in April 2020.
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In a survey conducted from October 4-8 by The Wall Street Journal, 68 percent of the 50 economists polled said inflation would be higher under a second Trump administration, while 12 percent said inflation would be higher if Harris won the White House. The remaining respondents said there would be no material difference between Trump and Harris.
Meanwhile, 65 percent of economists said Trump's economic policies put more upward pressure on the federal deficit. Usually, if there are higher deficits and inflation, interest rates will be higher. Sixty-one percent of survey respondents said interest rates would be higher under Trump than Harris.
Brian Hughes, a Trump campaign senior adviser, told the Wall Street Journal, "Then—as now—Trump policies will fuel growth, drive down inflation, inspire American manufacturing, all while protecting the working men and women of our nation from lopsided policies tilted in favor of other countries."
"These Wall Street elites would be wise to review the record and acknowledge the shortcomings of their past work if they'd like their new forecasts to be seen as credible," Hughes added.
Newsweek reached out to Trump and Harris' campaigns via email for comment on Monday afternoon.
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What Are Trump and Harris' Economic Policies?
Trump has called for tax cuts on overtime pay and Social Security benefits. He also wants to reverse the cap on state and local taxes that Americans can deduct on their federal returns, a provision of his 2017 tax cut package.
The former president proposed up to 20 percent tariffs on all imports and a 60 percent tariff on imports from China. Additionally, he proposed making auto loan interest tax-deductible.
Harris wants to expand tax deductions for small businesses, restore and increase the child tax credit and lower housing costs by giving first-time homeowners down payment assistance. The vice president plans to pay for these social benefits by raising taxes on the wealthy and big corporations. She also wants to crack down on price-gouging to help with Americans' grocery bills.
Both candidates have also suggested getting rid of taxes on tips.
Dan Hamilton, director of the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at California Lutheran University, told the Wall Street Journal, "Both candidates have policies that are inflationary."
However, he said, "Since July, it became apparent to us that Trump is even more anti-free-trade than Harris."
In the past few months, Trump increased his proposed tariff policy on all imported goods from 10 percent to 10 to 20 percent.
Hamilton told Newsweek via email on October 15 that both candidates' economic policies would also "run serial multi-trillion dollar deficits (i.e. way too high) for their entire presidential career."
He also pointed out that the Journal's survey response "is only relevant for the next 12 months. The longer-run is a different."
"Harris is expected to expand the regulatory state, so the inflation outlook is higher for Harris two-four years out than it is for Trump. Again, whether it is short-run (one-year) or longer run (two-years and more), both candidates' policies are inflationary," Hamilton said.
Update 10/16/24, 10:51 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional comment from Hamilton.
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