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By Ewan Palmer
News Reporter
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Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden by five points in the swing state of Georgia, where the first 2024 presidential debate will be held on Thursday.
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia poll of 1,000 likely voters released Tuesday found that Trump is leading Biden on 43 percent to 38 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is not expected to qualify for Thursday's debate, is in third place at 9 percent.
The survey was released as Trump and Biden prepare to debate live on television. CNN will host the event at its Atlanta studios.
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Newsweek has approached both Trump and Biden's teams via email for comment.
The Context
Polls have frequently suggested November's White House race between Trump and Biden is neck and neck. However, the AJC survey is the latest example that suggests that Trump is beating the president in battleground states, which could ultimately determine who wins the 2024 election.
Biden flipped Georgia from Trump in 2020 by a margin of just over 11,700 votes.
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What We Know
Trump's five-point lead over Biden in the AJC poll is just outside the margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
When broken down further, the polls suggest voters are split as to whether Trump's felony conviction in his hush money trial has hindered or improved his White House chances.
Trump became the first U.S. president in history to be convicted of a crime after a jury found him guilty of 34 falsifying business records charges on May 30. Trump denied any wrongdoing and accused the investigation of being a politically motivated "witch hunt" that aimed to stop him from winning the 2024 election.
The topic of his conviction will almost certainly be raised at Thursday's CNN debate.
The AJC poll of likely voters found that 17 percent were now more likely to vote for Trump in November following his conviction, while about a quarter said they were less likely. More than half (56 percent) said it makes no difference on how they plan on voting in November.
Elsewhere, the poll suggests Biden is losing support from Black voters in Georgia, a key demographic for the president's reelection hopes.
About 70 percent of Black Georgia residents said they will back Biden in November. This is down from the 88 percent of Black supporters for Biden seen in Georgia's 2020 exit poll.
Nine percent of Black voters in the state said they would support Trump.
The AJC poll was conducted by the University of Georgia's School of Public and International Affairs from June 11 to June 22 among 1,000 likely voters.
Views
Gary Eubanks, a 75-year-old military veteran and Trump supporter, told the AJC the former president's hush money trial was a "travesty."
He said that if people "do something wrong, you have to face the circumstances. But at the same time, I'm for fairness. I think that whole thing was a sham."
Jessica See, a Marietta health care worker, said she may support Kennedy over Biden and Trump in November.
"I feel like I'm typically a Democratic voter, but I can't support the funding for Israel that the party has pushed through," she said.
"I really can't support a criminal either. I'm screwed either way, so I'm going to support the candidate who hasn't done anything horrible yet."
What's Next
The CNN live presidential debate, the first one to take place between an incumbent and a former president, will be held on June 27.
The second presidential debate, hosted by ABC, will take place on September 10.
Update 6/25/24, 8:12 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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