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By Anna Skinner
Associate News Editor
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Florida largely resisted the Democratic wave that swept across the country in the midterms, but with several congressional races shifting in Democrats’ favor as opposed to the last midterm election in 2022, the results are raising questions about whether the state could become more competitive in 2028.
While Republicans have celebrated Florida’s ability to remain largely red during the nationwide blue wave this week, the results tell a more complicated story. A post-election memo from Governor-elect Byron Donalds’ campaign called Florida the “premier Republican stronghold in America” now that Texas’ gubernatorial seat was won by Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Despite Republicans winning most of Florida’s congressional races, many shifted toward Democrats compared with the 2022 midterms, sometimes by significant margins.
Florida carries particular significance for President Donald Trump, who has made the state his primary residence since leaving New York and has seen it become increasingly Republican in recent elections. Trump won Florida by roughly 13 points over Kamala Harris in 2024, a dramatic shift from 2016, when he carried the state by just over 1 point.
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How Close Were Florida Midterm Races?
Republicans had a narrow victory over their Democratic opponents in many congressional races, including the special election for the U.S. Senate seat and in several House races, with four races still too close to call.
Florida Republicans had hoped to grow their congressional majority after DeSantis pushed through a mid-decade redistricting plan that reshaped several Democratic-held seats in the GOP’s favor. But despite the new map, Republicans failed to immediately flip any of the targeted Democratic seats, leaving the party without the congressional gains it had sought from redistricting. However, DeSantis said that had the congressional map not been changed, Democrats might have flipped several Republican-held seats in Florida.
“In 2024 Florida voters sent 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats to the US House. In April 2026, Florida enacted a revised map to unwind an unconstitutional racial gerrymander,” DeSantis posted on X after the midterms. “Last night, Florida voters likely elected 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats to the US House. Had the old map been in effect, it would have been 18 Republicans and 10 Democrats.”
U.S. Senate Results
A special election was held for the U.S. Senate seat to complete the remainder of former Senator Marco Rubio’s term, considering he left the seat to serve as Trump’s Secretary of State. Republican Ashley Moody, who was appointed to replace Rubio in 2025, won the Senate election during this week’s midterms over her Democratic challenger Angie Nixon by less than 3 percentage points. Moody received 50.9 percent of the vote compared to Nixon’s 48 percent. In 2022, Rubio, who was the Republican incumbent at the time, won the seat by more than 16 points over his Democratic challenger Val Demings.
Nixon’s three-point loss comes even as she didn’t receive funding from the Senate Majority PAC or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Nixon previously told Newsweek that she was “not getting massive amounts of money from ultra-wealthy billionaires, from these big major corporations,” despite support for her campaign from other political players like Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, among others.
That lack of major corporate funding raises another question: With more financial backing, could a Democrat win Florida’s U.S. Senate seat?
“I think Democrats are encouraged by Texas' election outcome and are preparing for 2028,” University of Florida political science professor Sharon Wright Austin told Newsweek on Friday. “Some candidates only lost by small margins. Mid decade redistricting also backfired because Democratic incumbents won despite it. We have to question whether [Democratic gubernatorial candidate David] Jolly or Nixon could've won if the national Democratic party had devoted more funds to their campaign.”
Florida Governor’s Race
Donalds won the gubernatorial election, becoming Florida’s first Black governor after receiving 50 percent of the vote compared to his Democratic challenger David Jolly’s 48.7 percent.
However, the competitive race was a change from the last gubernatorial election held in 2022, when then-incumbent Republican Ron DeSantis, who was term-limited this year, won his re-election bid by nearly 20 points.
Following the midterms, DeSantis issued a dire prediction for Republicans, saying the party might not win its congressional majority back in 2028 but should instead look to 2032 Senate control.
“Dems will get 55 Senate seats and 250+ House seats," he posted on X on Wednesday. "Looking at the Senate map and considering such a massive House margin, it is very unlikely Republicans will recapture the Congress in 2028. Might not have a shot at Senate control until 2032.”
U.S. House Race
U.S. House races in Florida, while many were retained by Republicans, also saw significantly different margins than in the last midterms.
Notable shifts include District 13, held by Republican Anna Paulina Luna, who won her re-election bid by only eight-tenths of a point this year, compared with 2022, when she first won the seat by 8 points over her Democratic challenger. In District 21, Republican incumbent Brian Mast won his re-election bid by 9 points over his Democratic challenger James Martin. While not a narrow victory, Mast’s margin was much higher in 2022, when he won by 27 points.
Republicans also made gains over their 2022 midterm performance in some U.S. House races. For example, Democrat Pia Dandiya won District 22 by just under 4 percentage points over her Republican opponent Casey Askar this year, whereas Democrats secured the seat by 10 points in 2022.
Four House races remain too close to call. They include District 7, where Republican Ryan Elijah leads Democrat Bale Dalton by half a percentage point. Republicans flipped the seat during the 2022 midterm elections.
In District 9, Democrat incumbent Darren Soto is leading his Republican challenger Dan Green by little over half a percentage point. This is a race where Republicans have made gains, as Soto won his re-election bid in the 2022 midterms by over 7 percentage points.
In District 26, only 0.8 percentage points separate Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart from his Democratic challenger Nicole Locklin. Diaz-Balart won by more than 40 points in 2022.
In District 27, Republican incumbent Maria Elvira Salazar leads by four-tenths of a percentage point over her Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez. Salazar won the seat by double digits during the 2022 midterm election.
What Happens Next
Attention will now turn to 2028, when Florida voters will again weigh in on all of the state’s U.S. House seats, its U.S. Senate seat, and the presidency. The election will offer another test of whether Democrats’ improved margins in 2026 signal a more competitive Florida or whether Republicans can maintain their grip on the state.
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