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By Sam Stevenson

Associate News Editor

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A new national poll shows President Donald Trump's approval rating at 30 percent, the lowest level recorded in the survey's recent trend and a figure that, if reflected more broadly, would place him in territory historically associated with difficult midterm environments for incumbent presidents.

The June 16-20 American Research Group survey found that 66 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's job performance, while just 30 percent approve. The poll of 1,100 adults carries a theoretical margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The findings come as economic pessimism deepens across the electorate and as both parties begin positioning themselves for the 2026 midterm elections, where voter perceptions of the economy are expected to play a central role.

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Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment on the poll.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle has dismissed polling results, stating: "The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected him."

Ingle said the administration's policies are producing results and that "this is just the beginning" as Trump's agenda continues to take effect.

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Although this survey places Trump below most national polling averages—the mid-June NPR/PBS News/Marist national poll (36 percent overall, 33 percent on the economy) and the AP-NORC poll (37 percent)—it highlights a broader trend that has emerged across multiple pollsters: more Americans disapprove than approve of the president's performance.

Historically, presidents entering a midterm cycle with approval ratings below 40 percent have often faced significant political headwinds. While a single poll does not determine electoral outcomes, sustained weakness among independent voters and growing economic pessimism have frequently preceded congressional losses for the party in power.

The latest survey also sheds light on what political scientists often describe as a "lived experience gap"—the disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and how Americans feel about their own financial circumstances. Even when headline economic measures appear relatively stable, voters frequently base their political judgments on everyday experiences such as grocery prices, housing costs, debt burdens and household budgets.

Key Points

• New American Research Group poll puts Trump at 30 percent approval and 66 percent disapproval
• Economic handling fares worse: 26 percent approve, 70 percent disapprove
• Approval has steadily slipped from 38 percent last summer to 30 percent now
• Public outlook is bleak: 73 percent say the economy is getting worse
• A growing majority—65 percent—believe the U.S. is already in a recession
• Even among supporters, pessimism is rising about both the economy and personal finances

Overall Approval Drops Further

Those numbers illustrate one of the administration's most significant challenges. While Trump continues to retain support from a majority of Republicans, his standing among independents is substantially weaker and closely mirrors his overall national rating.

The latest result continues a longer-term slide in this polling series. In June 2025, American Research Group measured Trump's approval rating at 38 percent. By May 2026, it had fallen to 31 percent before reaching 30 percent this month.

For historical context, the same pollster measured Trump's approval at 40 percent in June 2018 during his first term, compared with 54 percent disapproval.

Economy Ratings Are Even Worse

If Trump's overall approval numbers are weak, his economic ratings are weaker still.

Just 26 percent approve of his handling of the economy while 70 percent disapprove. That represents a notable deterioration from May, when 29 percent approved and 67 percent disapproved.

The contrast with Trump's first term is particularly striking. In June 2018, 41 percent approved of his handling of the economy in comparable American Research Group polling.

Among registered voters, the pattern holds: 27 percent approve and 70 percent disapprove on the economy.

Partisan Polarization Remains Stark

The electorate remains sharply divided along party lines:

• Republicans: 67 percent approve, 31 percent disapprove
• Democrats: 1 percent approve, 98 percent disapprove
• Independents: 25 percent approve, 69 percent disapprove

This entrenched polarization means overall movement is driven largely by independents, where approval remains particularly weak.

Economic Outlook Turns Deeply Negative

The broader economic sentiment data reveals the depth of public concern.

Only 6 percent of Americans say the national economy is getting better, while 73 percent say it is getting worse.

Looking ahead, pessimism dominates: 75 percent expect the economy to be worse a year from now, compared with just 7 percent who expect improvement.

Those expectations are even more pronounced among critics of the president. Among the 66 percent who disapprove of his job performance, 82 percent believe the economy will worsen further.

The 'Lived Experience Gap'

A striking 65 percent of Americans say they believe the country is already in a recession, compared with 19 percent who disagree.

That figure has been edging upward in recent months, suggesting a growing perception gap between official economic indicators and lived experience.

Personal Finances Under Pressure

Public concern is not confined to abstract economic indicators—it is reflected in household sentiment.

• 69 percent rate their own financial situation as bad, very bad, or terrible
• 73 percent say their household finances are getting worse
• Looking ahead, 68 percent expect their finances to be worse in a year

Even among Trump’s supporters, confidence is softening. Of those who approve of the president:

• Only 12 percent expect their household finances to improve
• 45 percent expect them to get worse

Shift Among Supporters

Perhaps the most revealing trend lies within Trump’s own base. In February 2025, when 43 percent approved of his performance, 46 percent expected the economy to improve within a year.

Now, among the smaller group of supporters who approve of his performance (30 percent), only 13 percent expect improvement, while 59 percent say the economy will worsen.

That shift suggests not just a shrinking coalition, but a more pessimistic one.

Polling Averages Show Trump Deeply Underwater

Aggregated polling reinforces the same trend seen in individual surveys.

The New York Times average puts Trump at 39 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval as of June 22, while a recent Times/Siena poll showed just 37 percent approval, placing his standing at the low end of modern presidential ratings.

Other trackers align closely. CNN’s "Poll of Polls," averaging major surveys conducted between June 8 and June 19, finds 37 percent approve and 61 percent disapprove, keeping Trump firmly underwater.

A Consistent Trend Across Pollsters

Across recent national polls—from YouGov, AP-NORC, Reuters/Ipsos and others—approval consistently sits in the mid- to high-30s, with disapproval in the high-50s or low-60s.

That consistency matters. When multiple surveys point in the same direction, it typically signals a sustained shift in public opinion rather than a statistical outlier.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly and James Debens

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