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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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President Donald Trump is hemorrhaging support among one of the most important groups that powered his rise to the presidency, raising fresh questions about the political fallout heading into the 2026 midterm elections, according to new polling.
Trump’s approval rating among non‑college white voters has collapsed since early 2025, flipping from strongly positive to negative, according to an average of recent national polls presented on CNN.
Those voters formed the backbone of Trump’s winning coalition, and their drift away from him is coinciding with mounting economic anxiety and backlash over U.S. military action abroad.
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The shift could reshape competitive Senate races, particularly in states Trump has dominated in recent elections, creating unexpected openings for Democrats.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek in an emailed statement: "The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.
"No other president in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more. The president has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect."
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Why It Matters
Non‑college white voters were instrumental in Trump’s victories in 2016 and again in 2024, making their rapid disapproval politically significant.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten pointed to economic dissatisfaction and backlash over U.S. military action against Iran as key drivers of the shift.
What To Know
Trump’s eroding support among non‑college white voters was laid out starkly on CNN as Enten, one of the network’s top political experts, walked through recent polling averages.
"We are talking about non‑college white voters," Enten said, describing them as "the group that helped put him in the White House."
That same group, he added, has now turned sharply against the president, calling the moment a political "ruh‑row"—a reference borrowed from Scooby‑Doo.
In February 2025, Trump’s net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) with non‑college white voters stood at plus 32 points.
Today, Enten said, that figure sits at minus two—a dramatic 34‑point swing. And importantly, he noted, this was not the result of a single outlier poll.
"This is an average of polls," Enten noted, explaining he combined data from three major polls conducted for CBS, Fox News, and CNN. "Donald Trump is actually underwater with non‑college whites."
‘It’s the Economy, Smarty’
CNN anchor John Berman pressed Enten on what could explain such a sharp drop among one of Trump’s core constituencies. The answer, Enten said bluntly, comes down to economics.
"It’s the economy, smarty," Enten said, borrowing a familiar political phrase as he pointed to Trump’s collapsing approval on financial stewardship.
In February 2025, Trump’s net approval on the economy among non‑college whites was 26 points above water. It has since fallen to 15 points underwater—a swing of more than 40 points.
Foreign policy has compounded the problem. Enten pointed to polling on U.S. military action against Iran, noting non‑college white voters give that action a net approval rating of minus five points.
Trump himself fares even worse on the issue, with a net rating of minus 13.
"It turns out he’s alienating a lot of folks with this war," Enten said.
Impact on Midterm Elections
While Trump cannot be elected president again under the 22nd Amendment, Berman noted the political consequences may soon surface elsewhere—especially during the 2026 midterm elections.
Attention turned to Ohio, a state Trump carried comfortably in 2016, 2020 and 2024 after Barack Obama won it in 2012.
According to the Kalshi prediction market, the probability of Democrats winning the Ohio Senate race has surged.
On January 1, the market put Democratic chances at 37 percent. That figure has since climbed to 60 percent. Enten described the shift as dramatic, particularly given Trump’s double‑digit margins in the state less than two years earlier.
"Donald Trump’s chances are sliding," Enten said, while Democratic prospects in Ohio are "rising."
What Happens Next
Berman ended the segment by posing a question for future analysis: If Trump’s support among one of his most loyal groups has fallen this far, which voters are still standing by him?
"That’s for another time," Enten replied.
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