...
By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Since the Dolphins acquired wide receiver Tyreek Hill after the 2021 season, their offense has been electric, but injuries and struggles against top-tier defenses have led to a lack of playoff success the past two years.
Miami did pay QB Tua Tagovailoa in the offseason, committing to him as their guy for the foreseeable future, so he will need to prove that he can stay healthy and get it done against the best of the best. Here is what the oddsmakers think of the Dolphins' chances in 2024.
Miami Dolphins 2024 Futures Odds
Read More
NFL Win Totals: 3 Teams to Consider Betting to Go Under This Season5 min read
Buffalo Bills 2024 Futures Odds: Will Bills Actually Take a Step Back?5 min read
Detroit Lions 2024 Futures Odds: Lions Among NFC Favorites7 min read
For the past two years, the Dolphins have found themselves in the "good not great" category, going 9-8 in 2022 and 11-6 in 2023. They lost in the first round of the playoffs in both of these seasons as well. They are priced accordingly in 2024, with most books giving them the 12th-best odds to win the Super Bowl, and the seventh-best odds in the AFC.
They actually have the third-best odds to win the AFC in their own division, behind both the Bills and the Jets. Unsurprisingly, the Dolphins are also the third-favorite to win the AFC East.
As for our thoughts on their 2024 chances, let's dive right into it.
Miami Dolphins 2024 Betting Outlook
Despite going over their win total by two games last year, the Dolphins' win total over/under is priced at 9.5 for this upcoming season. Granted, the over is priced at minus odds, which means the books think the Dolphins winning 10-plus games is the more likely scenario.
Still, oddsmakers are projecting the Dolphins to be the third-best team in their division, and it is hard to argue with that when looking at this roster, and most importantly the quarterback position.
Can QB Tua Tagovailoa take the "leap?"
We see the term "leap" tossed around all the time in sports, but it does feel as though it applies to Dolphins QB Tagovailoa. He is capable of putting up gaudy, video-game numbers when facing bad defenses, but he has struggled immensely when facing the elite units.
That is what separates Tagovailoa from elite QBs such as Joe Burrow and Josh Allen (not to even mention Patrick Mahomes, who is an unfair comparison), who have shown the ability to perform at a high level even against top defenses.
In 2023, the Dolphins had a 10-1 record against teams that ended the season with a losing record, and they went 1-6 against teams with a winning record.
Tua Tagovailoa 2023 regular-season stats vs. above-.500 opponents
- 1,394 passing yards (232 passing yards/game)
- seven touchdowns, six interceptions
- 65% completion%
- 6.9 Yards/attempt
- 84.06 QB Rating
Tua Tagovailoa 2023 regular-season stats vs. below-.500 opponents
- 3,230 passing yards (293.6 yards/game)
- 22 touchdowns, eight interceptions
- 72% completion%
- 9 Yards/attempt
- 110.74 QB Rating
Those numbers do not even include a playoff loss to the Chiefs in which Tagovailoa threw for 199 yards with one touchdown and one interception in a lifeless, 26-7 loss.
The good news is that Tagovailoa was able to play all 18 games last year, including the playoffs, as injuries have been a major concern for him since entering the league. He suffered a hip injury in his final season at Alabama, which limited him to nine starts as a rookie, and he has a scary history with concussions that led him to miss five games in the 2021 season.
Elsewhere, the Dolphins offense is loaded. One could make an easy argument that the Dolphins have the best 1-2 combination of receivers in the NFL in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, along with the best 1-2 combination at running back in Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane.
PFF gives the Dolphins both the second-best receiving unit (including tight ends) and the second-best running back unit in NFL. At offensive line, PFF ranks the Dolphins No. 18, with the caveat that they could ascend higher on that list if they are able to stay healthy in 2024, most notably left tackle Terron Armstead.
An argument can be made that the Dolphins' struggles against top units is not all on Tagovailoa, as the Dolphins scheme, architected by head coach Mike McDaniel, is more to blame for the struggles against these elite defenses.
So, both McDaniel and Tagovailoa will need to prove that they can get it done against the best before they should be put into the category of the best teams in the NFL.
What will Dolphins defense look like?
All the talk is about the Dolphins offense because it boasts big names, but thedefense has just as much intrigue heading into 2024. Last year's defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, is no longer in Miami, as he was replaced by Anthony Weaver.
Weaver has coached in the NFL for 13 seasons after a seven-year career at defensive end. He comes over from the Baltimore Ravens, where he served as assistant head coach and defensive line coach the past two seasons. He has impressively worked his way up the coaching ranks, starting out as a graduate assistant for the University of Florida and slowly working his way to now becoming the Dolphins' DC.
Weaver does have some talent to work with, especially in the secondary. PFF gives the Dolphins the fifth-best secondary in the NFL, headlined by elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
Even with four-time Pro Bowler Xavien Howard no longer on the roster, the Dolphins have talent in the secondary outside of Ramsey, with elite safety Jevon Holland in the mix. Holland, who is entering his fourth season in the league, is yet to make a Pro Bowl or All-Pro team, but PFF graded him as the third-best safety in the NFL in 2023.
Unfortunately, Miami's defensive line is not as loaded. The Dolphins lost their best defender from the 2023 roster in Christian Wilkins to free agency, and they also said good-bye to productive pass rusher Andrew Van Ginkel. PFF has the Dolphins with the 25th-ranked defensive line in the NFL.
With a new defensive coordinator and talent issues among the defensive line, the Dolphins would probably be happy an average defense at this point, without much hope for a top-10 defensive unit.
Miami Dolphins 2024 Best Bets
- Win Total: Over 9.5 Games (-122) FanDuel
While the Dolphins are not on our list of Super Bowl contenders, they are still a great bet to win at least 10 games. They went over this total last year, and they were able to win nine games in 2021 despite having QB injury issues for most of the year.
What it comes down to for the Dolphins is their strength of schedule. Despite playing in a tough AFC East, the Dolphins have the seventh-easiest schedule in the NFL, according to SharpFootballAnalysis. They should not be trusted to win deep in the playoffs or even finish first in their division, but 10 or more wins seems safe.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines