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By Jesus Mesa and Leonardo Feldman
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Senate Democrats blocked Department of Homeland Security funding in mid-February, betting that public anger over immigration enforcement would sustain their leverage and extract meaningful reforms to ICE and Customs and Border Protection.
It was a bet rooted in recent history. Democrats had spent the Biden years defending themselves against attacks over border security and immigration enforcement. The political ground seemed to shift after two U.S. citizens were killed by federal immigration officers in Minneapolis. Polling showed majorities disapproved of how ICE and CBP conducted enforcement in American cities. This time, Democrats thought, they could turn immigration into Republican vulnerability.
Nearly a month into the shutdown, that calculation is falling apart.
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An Airport Crisis
By mid-March, families heading to spring break destinations faced a different kind of chaos. More than 300 TSA agents had quit since the shutdown began on February 14. Absences doubled. At Houston's Hobby Airport, security lines stretched past three hours. Travelers missed flights. Parents delayed vacations. On Monday, CEOs from American, Delta, United, and other carriers published a joint letter warning that the system was at a "breaking point."
The human cost was immediate and visible. TSA officers were missing their second full paycheck of the shutdown. Callout rates spiked nationwide, with Houston Hobby reporting a single-day airport callout rate reaching 55 percent on March 14. Each new TSA officer replacement requires four to six months of training and certification, leaving critical gaps in staffing.
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With 171 million travelers expected during spring break season, airlines faced cascading delays that rippled through the economy.
"It's not just unfair. It's reckless. You can't run an industry with $3 trillion in economic impact on IOUs," Geoff Freeman, CEO of the U.S. Travel Association, said during a press conference.
In a statement shared with Newsweek, the White House added pressure. TSA officers were "working around the clock WITHOUT PAY—struggling to put food on the table and gas in their cars," the administration stated, demanding that "the Democrats MUST reopen DHS NOW."
All or Nothing, Republicans Say
As airport lines grew longer and federal workers missed paychecks, pressure mounted within the Democratic caucus. Senators began acknowledging what their strategy had wrought. Senator John Hickenlooper, a Democrat from Colorado, acknowledged the strain in a Newsweek interview. "The key is to make sure we get money to TSA, to everywhere, right?" he said.
Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, went further. He told Newsweek: "Yeah, Ice, there's a $75 billion slush fund for ice. That's why they should pass funding that we have offered, you know, for, you know, TSA and Coast Guard and FEMA."
Yet Republicans have blocked Democratic proposals to fund those agencies separately. Democrats have put forward bills six times to fund TSA, FEMA, CISA, and the Coast Guard without ICE and CBP, allowing negotiations to continue on immigration enforcement. Republicans rejected all six proposals. Only one Democrat voted to advance full DHS funding: Senator John Fetterman, a Democrat from Pennsylvania.
The GOP position: fund all of DHS, including $28 billion more for ICE and CBP beyond the historic sums already allocated, without reforms. The Democratic position: we've already funded ICE and CBP substantially; we won't provide additional funding without immigration enforcement reforms."
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The structural problem became harder to ignore. Congress had allocated $75 billion specifically for immigration enforcement through 2029 in last year's spending bill. That money sat untouched, fully available to ICE, while TSA agents missed paychecks and critical agencies suffered. Democrats were holding the entire department hostage to constrain an agency that could operate regardless of whether DHS received funding.
Polling data crystallized the political vulnerability. A Harvard/Harris survey showed 53 percent of voters oppose using a DHS shutdown to force ICE reforms—59 percent among independents. While 55 percent disapprove of how ICE and CBP enforce laws in cities, voters oppose the shutdown because they want enforcement to proceed, not because they oppose it.
"Immigration" and "national security" remain Trump's most popular issues. Voters had elected him specifically for immigration enforcement,” said Andrew R. Arthur, a Center for Immigration Studies Fellow, in a blog post Tuesday.
The same polling revealed that 73 percent of voters favor deporting immigrants convicted of crimes, and more than half support deporting all undocumented immigrants.
“They simply wanted it done differently than the tactics that led to Minneapolis," he wrote.
The White House Counter-offer
The Trump administration sent its counteroffer to Senate Republicans on Tuesday, outlining concessions that a senior White House official described as "reasonable" and "serious." The letter to Sens. Katie Britt and Susan Collins proposed expanding body-worn cameras for federal immigration enforcement, limiting civil enforcement operations at sensitive locations like hospitals and schools, increasing detention facility oversight, and mandating visible officer identification for agents who are not undercover.
The offer also pledges adherence to existing law against deporting U.S. citizens and commits to not knowingly detaining citizens except when they violate state or federal law. According to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the proposal includes up to $100 million for body cameras and provisions for inspector general audits and compliance reviews.
Democrats have rejected it. They argue Republicans have blocked their own proposals to fund TSA, FEMA, and the Coast Guard separately—without reopening ICE and CBP, which remain flush with $75 billion in previously appropriated funds.
They are also pressing for an outright ban on agent masking and a requirement for judicial warrants before immigration arrests, neither of which the White House will accept. With the shutdown now grinding into its second month and Easter recess approaching on March 28, neither side shows signs of budging.
Update 3/17/26, 6:09 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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