10
Loading video...
By Hollie Silverman
News Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis criticized several elements of President Donald Trump's second-term agenda on the eve of the midterms, arguing that the prolonged Iran conflict, higher gasoline prices and the administration's handling of immigration enforcement had contributed to a difficult political environment for the GOP.
In an interview with Stephen A. Smith on his podcast Straight Shooter, the term-limited governor said Democrats had "more momentum" heading into Tuesday's elections and claimed Republican campaigns and committees were seeing some of the same warning signs reflected in public polling.
"The polls you're seeing that show the Democrats making potentially big gains, those numbers are the same that Republican campaigns are getting right now, Republican committees," DeSantis said. "When you're in a midterm cycle, it tends to go against the party in power. I think we're seeing some of those headwinds."
Read More on News
DeSantis argued that Republicans were confronting voter dissatisfaction over inflation, gasoline prices and the Iran conflict.
"Our candidates are running into the wind on that," he said. "And the Democrats have more momentum."
Election Forecasts
Final forecasts of the midterms have pointed to a “blue wave” for the Democratic Party. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, so Democrats have been optimistic about their chances to flip control of Congress. That optimism has grown as Trump’s approval rating has fallen amid voter frustration with the state of the economy and cost of living.
Polls have given Democrats an edge in the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as in key U.S. Senate races.
As of Monday, RealClearPolitics gave Democrats an 8.9-point lead on the generic ballot.
Nate Silver is bullish on Democrats’ chances to win the Senate. His polling aggregate gave them an edge in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, while pointing to very close races in Louisiana, Nebraska and South Carolina. On the generic ballot, his forecast gave Democrats a 9.4-point lead, which would be the largest for either party in the national popular vote since 2010.
The last forecast by Elliott Morris' FiftyPlusOne model gave Democrats a 99 percent chance of winning the House, a 79 percent chance of flipping the Senate and a 79 percent chance of securing both the Senate and House.
Natalie Baldassarre, the national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, told Newsweek on Monday that polls historically “underestimate support for Republicans.”
“Polls may suggest one thing, but the American people get the final say, and Republicans remain laser-focused on driving voters to the polls, defying history, and protecting our majorities,” she said.
GOP's Donalds, Moody Lead in Latest Florida Polling
The comments from DeSantis, who unsuccessfully challenged Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, come as he prepares to leave office and speculation continues about whether he could make another White House bid in 2028.
Republicans, meanwhile, face a competitive political environment in Florida, a state that has moved sharply toward the GOP in recent elections.
Republican Representative Byron Donalds and former GOP Representative turned Democrat David Jolly won their parties' nominations to succeed DeSantis. And in the state's U.S. Senate race, GOP Senator Ashley Moody and Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon are running against each other. Nixon won her Democratic primary with 55.2 percent of the vote at the time the race was called.
The political environment is a significant change from the previous presidential election. Trump carried Florida by 13.1 percentage points in 2024, representing a shift of 9.7 points to the right compared with the 2020 presidential election.
Recent polling shows Republicans maintaining an advantage in Florida’s governor and Senate races.
A New York Times/Siena University that was released on October 28 found Donalds leading Jolly 48 percent to 44 percent, while an October 19 YouGov/Univision survey put Donalds ahead 50 percent to 42 percent. Together, the surveys show Donalds leading by between 4 and 8 percentage points in the closing weeks of the race.
For the Senate race, the Times/Siena poll put Moody ahead of Nixon 50 percent to 44 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll that was conducted between October 28-29 showed Moody leading Nixon (49 percent to 43 percent).
Newsweek reached out to the White House Tuesday for comment.
Related Story
Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly—Latest Top-Rated Poll as Trump Jr. in Florida
...
DeSantis Warns Republicans About Florida
DeSantis said Democrats were trying to turn the gubernatorial contest between Donalds and Jolly into a referendum on Trump.
"What the Democrats are doing in Florida, what they are doing is they're just saying, 'Donalds has voted with Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump,'" DeSantis said.
He acknowledged that such a strategy could be risky given the president's strength in the Sunshine State, but said Democrats were betting that dissatisfaction with Trump could hurt Donalds.
DeSantis said he was particularly concerned about an enthusiasm gap between the parties, arguing that Democrats were turning out at a stronger rate while Republican voters were less energized than in recent elections.
"The atmospherics are different now," he said. "Democrats are energized. Our voters are not as energized."
DeSantis nevertheless said Republican candidates retained an advantage and argued that a large number of reliable GOP voters were still likely to cast ballots. However, he warned Republicans not to assume Florida's political transformation would be permanent.
The governor pointed to voters who have switched their registration from Democratic or independent to Republican in recent years, arguing that the GOP still needed to earn their support.
"It isn't like you're a Republican from the grave and would never vote for Democrat," DeSantis said. "So those are people you got to work to keep in the party."
Prediction markets also continued to favor Republicans in Florida on Election Day. Kalshi gave Donalds a 66 percent chance of winning the governor’s race, compared with 34 percent for Jolly.
Polymarket similarly put Donalds at 66 percent in the governor’s race. In the Senate contest, it gave Moody a 90 percent chance of winning, compared with 11 percent for Nixon. Prediction-market prices fluctuate and reflect traders’ expectations rather than polling of voters.
DeSantis Breaks With Trump on Iran
DeSantis' sharpest criticism of Trump came over the Iran war, which the governor described as a "big, big drag" on Republicans.
He argued that some voters who supported Trump because of his opposition to prolonged American involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts had become disillusioned.
"We have some of our voters who've checked out because they're like, 'I didn't want any more Middle East wars, and now we're doing it,'" DeSantis said.
He said the political consequences might have been different if the conflict had ended quickly. Instead, he blamed the prolonged conflict for higher gasoline prices, an economic pressure that he argued voters encounter directly.
"Gas is higher. It hurts people, working class people, and it's higher because of this conflict," DeSantis said. "That's just the fact. If you can't admit that to voters, then you're gaslighting them and they're not going to listen to you on other things."
DeSantis warned that the political damage could continue well beyond the midterms if the conflict remained unresolved.
"If it drags on for the rest of his presidency, it's going to be devastating to his ability to get anything done," he said. "And it is going to be very, very difficult for Republicans in the next cycle."
DeSantis Calls Kristi Noem Appointment a 'Mistake'
DeSantis also offered a pointed criticism of the Trump administration's approach to immigration enforcement, singling out former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.
"I just think having Kristi Noem be the secretary was a mistake," DeSantis said.
His criticism was not directed at the administration's broader objective of enforcing immigration law, which he said he supported. Instead, DeSantis argued that the implementation of the policy had created unnecessary confrontations.
"She wanted these conflicts," he said of Noem. "I think she wanted because it created news and created conflict. That's not the way you do it."
Noem was fired as DHS secretary by Trump in March after a turbulent tenure marked by controversy over the administration’s immigration enforcement, including several deaths of civilians at the hands of federal agents, and a $220 million advertising campaign featuring Noem.
Her departure followed congressional hearings in which she faced criticism from lawmakers in both parties. She was replaced with Markwayne Mullin by the president.
Noem later served as a special envoy for the Shield of the Americas initiative. That envoy status ended in September, and she subsequently became a senior adviser to Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, continuing work on the initiative.
DeSantis contrasted the administration's approach with policies in Florida, where he said local law enforcement authorities cooperate with federal officials when they encounter people accused of crimes who are also in the country illegally.
"I think the public still wants the law enforced, and many Latinos do, by the way," DeSantis said. "But I think that was unnecessary in terms of how that happened."
'Only Trump Can Pull That Off'
Despite his criticisms, DeSantis made clear that he believes Republicans should preserve some of the political and policy priorities that Trump brought to the party.
He cited immigration, prioritizing American workers and confronting China among the issues on which he believes Republicans should build on Trump's approach.
"The core things that Trump came on the scene with, I think those are things you need to build on," DeSantis said.
But he argued that other Republicans should not attempt to imitate Trump's political persona.
"Only Trump can pull that off," he said. "You just got to be yourself. You're never going to be him. He is one of one."
That distinction could become increasingly important as Republicans begin looking toward the 2028 presidential election and deciding how closely the party's next nominee should resemble Trump.
DeSantis Revisits Failed 2024 Run
When Smith raised the prospect of another presidential campaign, DeSantis did not rule out running again. Instead, he offered a candid assessment of why his 2024 campaign failed.
DeSantis said that he believed the election presented Republicans with an unusually favorable opportunity and that Trump's grip on Republican primary voters proved difficult to overcome.
"I just ran into a brick wall," DeSantis said.
He recalled meeting Republican voters who told him they believed he could be a better president than Trump but nevertheless intended to support the president.
DeSantis also argued that Trump's legal troubles during the campaign strengthened his support among Republican primary voters.
"They kept indicting him and he got more popular," DeSantis said. "I'm sitting there praying, don't indict him. Don't indict him because I know he's got to get more popular."
DeSantis ultimately ended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump.
DeSantis, 48, would be 50 when the next president takes office in January 2029, leaving him young enough to mount another presidential campaign in 2028 or potentially in later election cycles.
DeSantis Looks Toward 2028
DeSantis did not announce another presidential campaign in the interview, but he openly discussed the strategic choices Republicans could confront in 2028.
"Will '28 be a continuation election where they want another term effectively of Trump, or is it going to be a change election?" he said. "If it's a change election, the public wants change. Republicans can offer it."
DeSantis suggested that a future Republican nominee could retain what he considers the successes of the Trump presidency while departing from the president on other issues.
"We're going to take the successes that Trump had, build off them," he said. "But guess what. We're also going to do A, B and C."
The immediate test, however, comes in Tuesday's midterms.
DeSantis said Republicans still had advantages in Florida, but his assessment of the national environment was notably more pessimistic.
"We're seeing it in Florida," he said. "You're seeing it in some of these other places. So this is a tough environment."
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Jason Lemon and Anthony Murray.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines