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By Anna Commander
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A new Fox News poll is giving Texas Democrats fresh optimism in one of the country's most closely watched Senate races as Democratic State Representative James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. The survey showcases a strong polling performance for a Democrat in a statewide Texas contest.
The results suggest that what was once considered a safe Republican seat could become one of the most competitive Senate races of the 2026 election cycle. Democrats, however, have not won a Senate race in the Lone Star State in decades.
The poll shows Talarico leading Paxton by a slim margin, driven by support among moderates, Black voters, younger Texans and other key demographic groups. Talarico's advantage grows to a 6-point lead among both extremely motivated and extremely interested voters, the poll shows. The findings align with other recent surveys showing Talarico ahead.
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When reached for comment about the new poll, Nick Maddux, spokesman for Paxton's campaign, told Newsweek via email, "The only poll that matters is November 3rd. When Texans get a look at James Talarico's actual record including endorsing reparations, voting against protecting kids from irreversible transition procedures, attacking oil and gas jobs, and backing the largest tax increase in Texas history, there is no amount of panicked flip-flopping that is going to save him. Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream."
JT Ennis, spokesperson for Talarico's campaign, also told Newsweek via email on Thursday night that “Texans are tired of this broken, corrupt political system and are ready to elect a leader who will fight for working people – not billionaire mega donors. This November, Texans will choose the preacher over the pedophile protector.”
Talarico has assailed Paxton’s office over declining to release communications surrounding what Talarico called an "Epstein-style sweetheart deal" given to attorney Adam Hoffman, who was charged in the repeated sexual abuse of a young boy in Waco, Texas, CBS News Austin reported.
Hoffman pleaded guilty to the lesser charges of display of harmful material to a minor and indecent assault, received a 60-day jail term and lost his law license. Hoffman also did not have to register as a sex offender in the state, according to the outlet.
A campaign spokesperson for Paxton has previously accused Talarico of “intentionally re-traumatizing the child victim for personal gain,” according to The Texas Tribune.
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What To Know
According to the Fox News survey, Talarico leads Paxton 51 to 48 percent, within the survey's margin of error. Among those who are both extremely motivated and extremely interested to vote, Talarico leads 53 percent to 47 percent in both groups.
"In addition, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than worry Democratic challenger James Talarico is too extreme, and more Democrats than Republicans are extremely motivated to vote (by 7 points) and extremely interested in the midterms (by 6)," the poll shows.
Talarico's support among independents is 68 percent and 98 percent among Democrats. Paxton has 89 percent of Republican support, the poll shows. Non-MAGA Republicans also support Talarico with 24 percent, and Hispanics back him 59 percent compared to Paxton's 41 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,006 Texas registered voters from July 23 to July 27 and has a margin of error of 3 percent.
Those figures suggest Democrats hold the intensity advantage that could prove decisive in midterm elections. Those are particularly troubling numbers for Republicans because highly engaged voters are the most likely to turn out on Election Day, making enthusiasm a key factor for potential electoral performance.
Republicans in the Senate hold a 53-45 majority—excluding independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats—and Democrats view flipping the Texas seat as a potential pathway to reclaiming the upper chamber, while Republicans see it as essential to maintaining their lead.
For Paxton, who has been backed by President Donald Trump, the poll underscores the challenges of unifying the Republican electorate after a divisive nomination battle against GOP Senator John Cornyn. While Paxton continues to enjoy strong support among men and rural voters, Democrats are likely hoping that shifts in key voting blocs and enthusiasm among moderates will keep the race competitive through November. Political observers, however, have cautioned that Texas remains a Republican-leaning state.
"Although Paxton dominated Cornyn in the GOP primary, that bruising contest left scars," Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, said in the poll. "He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left."
If future polling continues to show Talarico ahead of Paxton, the race could become one of the defining Senate battles of 2026, carrying major implications for control of the U.S. Senate. While months of campaigning remain, the latest poll offers Democrats one of their clearest signs yet that Texas may be more competitive than previously believed.
What Other Polling Shows
A New York Times/Siena poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied at 47 percent. The poll surveyed 656 likely voters in Texas from June 19 to June 27. The poll's margin of error was 4.5 percent.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 45 percent to 40 percent. The poll surveyed 1,048 likely Texas voters from July 15 to July 17 and had a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
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