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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Former State Controller Betty Yee, a Democrat, suspended her bid for California governor this week, narrowing an already volatile primary field as betting markets show climate activist Tom Steyer and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra leading the race.
As the June 2 primary nears, Democrats worry that a splintered field could open the door to a Republican-heavy general election.
Remaining Democratic candidates now face increased pressure to consolidate support before ballots reach voters in early May.
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Why It Matters
California’s top-two primary system means only the two highest vote-getters advance, regardless of party, raising fears that vote-splitting among Democrats could lock them out of November—even as Democratic voters in the state outnumber Republicans by nearly two to one, according to the Los Angeles Times.
With multiple Democratic exits in April, including former frontrunner ex-California Representative Eric Swalwell, party leaders and traders alike are watching closely for signs of consolidation—and momentum.
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Another Democrat Drops Out of a Crowded Race
Yee announced Monday that she was suspending her campaign, just over a week after Swalwell exited the race amid sexual misconduct allegations that he denies.
Yee cited a lack of fundraising, limited polling traction and the realities of campaigning in some of the nation’s most expensive media markets as key reasons for stepping aside.
“It was becoming clear that the donors were not going to be there. Even some of my former supporters just felt like they needed to move on,” Yee told an online news conference about her decision, The Associated Press reported.
Her departure has little direct impact on polling, with Yee stuck near the bottom of the field.
How Prediction Markets View the Race
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, such as election winners.
Prices fluctuate based on trader sentiment, news events and available data, creating a constantly updated snapshot of perceived odds.
At the time of writing, Polymarket traders showed billionaire Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra effectively tied, with each at roughly a 36 percent implied chance of winning the gubernatorial race.
A second tier of candidates lags well back, with former representative Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and Republican Steve Hilton each hovering around 6 percent, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at roughly 4 percent.
Trading volume on the market has exceeded $11.5 million, reflecting unusually high engagement for a state-level contest.
Separate data from U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi paints a similar picture, but with former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra slightly ahead at around 41 percent, compared with Tom Steyer at roughly 38 percent.
What Prediction Markets Get Right—and Wrong
Supporters argue prediction markets quickly absorb new information, including campaign withdrawals, fundraising moves and polling shifts.
Traders also risk real money, which some view as an incentive for sober judgment rather than partisan optimism.
But markets are not polls. They can be distorted by limited liquidity, coordinated trading strategies or incomplete voter data, and they do not model turnout, ballot design, or late-breaking shifts in public opinion.
California’s unusually large undecided share and top-two primary rules add further uncertainty.
Democrats Warn of GOP Breakthrough Risk
Concerns about Democratic vote-splitting were echoed this week by California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks, who warned that too many candidates remain in the race.
Speaking after the release of a new California VOTER Index tracking survey, Hicks said the data still showed two Republicans leading early preference questions and urged lower‑performing Democrats to reassess their viability.
The survey, conducted April 15–17 among 1,200 likely voters, found that while Democratic awareness is increasing, fragmentation remains a central threat as ballots near voters’ mailboxes.
Hicks emphasized the risk of Democrats being shut out of the general election if the field does not narrow further.
He said he had “deep respect” for Democrats who step forward to serve, adding that they also understand the importance of electing a Democrat as the next governor—including, he said, the need to narrow the field to secure a win in November.
Hicks added that his call for candidates to honestly assess the viability of their campaigns still stands, “especially if you are stalled in the single digits, seeing financial resources drying up, and/or failing to pick up additional support.”
“I continue to believe there are too many Democrats in the field,” he said.
“Ballots are in the hands of voters in roughly two weeks and the clock is ticking for candidates to do what is best for California in this historic moment.”
What Happens Next
A televised debate is scheduled for April 28 and the primary is on June 2.
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