10
Loading video...
By Anna Commander
News Editor
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Democrats have their eyes on a potential upset in Kansas, where recent polls show the U.S. Senate race in a dead heat and the Cook Political Report rates the contest Lean Republican with roughly four weeks until Election Day.
The position is held by Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall, a doctor, who is battling Democrat Adam Hamilton for the seat that has been held by the GOP since 1919, the longest ever for any party, High Plains Public Radio says.
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. Republicans now hold a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
Read More on News
President Donald Trump carried Kansas by double digits over then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, underscoring the state’s Republican tilt. But Democrats have maintained a foothold in the state, with Laura Kelly in the governor’s mansion even as Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats.
Newsweek reached out to both Marshall and Hamilton's campaigns via email on Monday for comment.
...
What To Know
According to recent polling, Hamilton either leads by a very slim margin or the race is statistically tied.
However, on prediction market site Kalshi Monday night, Marshall has 66 percent versus Hamilton's 34 percent. According to prediction market site Polymarket, Marshall has 68 percent compared to 33 percent for Hamilton.
Cook says Hamilton is running an "increasingly strong race" and has been launching an attack ad against Marshall, an OB-GYN, over billing and collection practices at his office. Marshall has branded the ad targeting his practice a "lie." The forecaster also highlights that agriculture—and economic concerns impacting fertilizer and gas—are major factors in the Sunflower State and the rising prices make the race more competitive.
Meanwhile, Marshall has branded Hamilton as a "radical Democrat," adding that "his sermons are identical to the Democratic Party platform."
Related Story
Who Will Win the Midterms? Play Our Prediction Game
Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Trump's dropping approval ratings in state and national polls as the midterm elections loom. The president's overall approval and ranking on key policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have slipped as households across America are flagging affordability concerns.
Robert Y. Shapiro, professor of political science at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia, told Newsweek on Monday when asked if Democrats realistically could flip the seat: "If this is a 'Wave' election it can flip. Or even otherwise since Hamilton is a very good moderate Democrat running against a very vulnerable opponent. This would be then a one off election unless this establishes a viable precedent for future Democratic candidates in Kansas. And possibly for Democrats elsewhere."
What the Polls Show
In a poll by The New York Times and Siena University last month, Marshall had 47 percent of the potential vote compared to 46 percent for Hamilton, and 7 percent of respondents said they did not know. The poll surveyed 605 likely voters from September 22 to September 30 and had a margin of error of 4.6 points.
A Trafalgar Group poll shows Hamilton has 44.4 percent of the potential vote compared to 43.5 percent for Marshall, 2 percent for Libertarian Party candidate David C Graham and 10.1 percent are undecided. The poll surveyed 1,095 likely voters across the state from September 29 to October 1 and has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
Breakdown of Hamilton vs. Marshall
Hamilton is pastor of the largest United Methodist Church in the country, the Church of the Resurrection.
He founded the Kansas City-area church in 1990 at age 25, according to his campaign website. He won the Democratic Senate primary in August and is running on affordability; a theme Democrats across the country are emphasizing.
His campaign is focused on bringing down energy, housing and healthcare costs as well as protecting Social Security, agriculture and ending “chaos and corruption” in Washington, D.C., his website says.
Meanwhile, Marshall has been in the U.S. Senate since winning his 2020 election. He has been an OB-GYN in the state for 25 years, his campaign website highlights, and calls himself a fifth-generation "farm kid."
Trump endorsed Marshall, labeling him a "strong advocate" for the people of Kansas. His campaign website touts bills from agriculture, border security and rural healthcare as a guide for voters to see what policies are important to the Republican.
Map Shows Toss-Up Senate Races Ahead of Midterms
For more analysis from us on the numbers shaping U.S. politics and the 2026 midterms, sign up for Newsweek's Midterms Monitor newsletter**.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward T. Cummins
Correction, 10/21/26, 07:15 a.m. ET: This article previously featured data from Wedgewood Polls, which has since been revealed to be an operation targeting the media with fake information. The polling data from Wedgewood Polls has now been removed from the story.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines