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By Hugh Cameron
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According to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, 49.6 million early votes had been cast as of Friday evening, with close to 22.9 million mail ballots returned, alongside 26.8 million in-person votes.
The regular early voting period will have ended in 20 states by the end of the day on Saturday, but this figure has already surpassed the previous record of 45.9 million set during the 2022 midterms.
And following the trend that has held since 2020, registered Democrats are leading Republicans. Those from the party account for 43 percent of the vote so far, compared with 32 percent for Republicans and 25 percent for those who are unregistered or registered with a smaller party.
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Democrats Lead in Early Voting Surge
As of 2026, 47 states along with the District of Columbia allow for universal early voting, with Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire being the exceptions. Only 27 states track early voting using party registration data, meaning the figures may not fully reflect nationwide voting patterns.
By 9:39 p.m. ET on Friday, Florida University’s Election Lab had tallied 10.3 million votes by registered Democrats, 7.5 million from Republicans and 5.9 million from the unregistered or those with a smaller party affiliation.
Courtesy of their size, Texas, California and Florida have seen the most votes so far, at 6.9 million, 5.1 million and 4.7 million, respectively. And accounting for population shows significant numbers in this year’s battlegrounds such as Georgia (2.8 million), Michigan (1.9 million), North Carolina (2.3 million) and Ohio (1.5 million).
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On Friday, analysis from The Associated Press revealed that 50 percent more Texans had voted early this year compared with the 2022 elections, with sizeable jumps in the Senate battlegrounds of Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Kansas and South Carolina—the latter seeing early voting soar by 83 percent.
This comes as both parties have urged voters to cast their ballots ahead of the Nov. 3 Election Day.
President Donald Trump has branded the practice “ridiculous,” while blaming it for his loss to Joe Biden in 2020 and pursuing restrictions on mail-in voting. However, the White House has encouraged voters to “avoid the wait” and cast ballots as early as possible in the 2026 midterms.
Meanwhile, Jane Kleeb, chair of the Association of State Democratic Committees, told NBC News in September that the party would be "really pushing people" to vote early in person this year.
"This is the best way that we can get Democrats elected is if you vote early in person,” she said.
What Polls Show in Last Days Before Midterms
While close to 50 million votes have already been cast, this is less than half the 108 million votes Pew Research Center tallied for the 2022 House elections, meaning many could still be swayed in the final days of the race.
As of Saturday, most surveys and poll aggregators give Democrats a significant edge in the House and slightly better odds in the Senate.
According to the most up to date generic congressional vote average from RealClearPolling, Democrats hold an 8.2-point lead over the Republican Party at 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent.
Election simulations from RacetotheWH currently give Democrats a 95 percent chance of winning a majority in the House. With 236.5 projected seats, this would mark the largest majority in the lower chamber since 2016, when Republicans had 241. The same forecaster gives Democrats a 78 percent chance of flipping the Senate, with 53 projected seats.
And an Economist/YouGov survey published Thursday—based on a poll of 1,440 registered voters between October 23 and 26—found that a plurality of 44 percent expect Democrats to win the House, compared to 31 percent who believe Republicans will protect their majority. Expectations were closer in the Senate, though Democrats still were still favored by 39 percent to Republicans’ 36 percent.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.
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