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By Andrew Stanton
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Democrats have their largest lead yet over Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, a new Emerson College poll shows.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Justin Chermol responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek: “Republicans have broken their core campaign promise to lower the high cost of living. Instead, they’ve gutted health care and rubber stamped Donald Trump’s cost-spiking tariffs. Voters will punish these extremists in November.”
Newsweek reached out to the National Republican Congressional Committee for comment via email.
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Why It Matters
Every seat in the House of Representatives is up for reelection in November, giving Democrats the opportunity to win control of Congress for the first time since Republicans flipped the chamber in 2022. Historically, the president's party loses seats during the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen since his return to office last January amid concerns about the economy and the cost of living. This has fueled Democrats’ optimism about their chances in the midterms.
What To Know
The new poll from Emerson released on Thursday gave Democrats an 8-point lead over Republicans (50 percent to 42 percent). It's the largest lead yet in an Emerson poll, which until January showed a relatively tight race for control of the House.
Democrats held a 6-point lead (48 percent to 42 percent) in January after having only a 2-point lead in December (44 percent to 42 percent). The pollster gave Democrats a 4-point lead in November (44 percent to 40 percent) and a single-point lead in October (44 percent to 43 percent).
Emerson showed a tied race in August, with both parties receiving 43 percent support, and Democrats led by 2 points in July (44 percent to 42 percent).
Among critical independent voters, Democrats led by 13 points (50 percent to 37 percent).
The poll surveyed 1,000 voters from February 21-22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Democrats' surge is a "cumulative effect" driven by factors like the public's experience with the economy, the response to the administration's ICE operations, tariffs and Trump's "inflammatory rhetoric," Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek.
*"*Most of the public does not feel good about where the country is at present, and that never bodes well for the incumbent party," he said.
He noted that it is still months from the midterms but that the dissatisfaction with the direction of the country matches that of 2018, when there was a blue wave.
"The administration is less internally chaotic and more effective than it was 2017-2018, but nonetheless, the public is not happy with what it’s experiencing or what it’s seeing out of the White House and Congress," he said. "So at this point, I’d expect a change in majority control of the House, and a bigger majority for the Democrats than what the Republicans currently have."
To reverse this trend, Republicans must "demonstrate that they are taking measures to improve people’s economic lives," he said.
"Maybe people will feel a little better after they submit their taxes, if they see a better refund or lower tax bill. Perhaps Republicans will also get lucky with some economic indicators pointing up," he said.
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Donald Trump Looms Over Midterms
Trump’s approval rating is likely to be a major issue for the midterms. Democrats are seeking to make the elections a referendum on his policies, including tariffs, as well as highlighting issues of affordability. Midterm outcomes often hinge on presidential approval.
The Emerson poll also found Trump’s approval rating reached its lowest point yet, with a net approval of -12 points. In the January poll, the president’s net approval rating was -8 points.
In recent midterms, the president’s party lost control of the House. That was true in President Joe Biden’s 2022 midterm, as well as Trump’s 2018 midterm and President Barack Obama’s 2010 midterm.
Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House, with 218 seats to the Democrats’ 214, while three seats are vacant. So even if only a handful of seats flip to Democrats, Republicans would lose control of the chamber.
Which House Seats Are Most Competitive?
The Cook Political Report gives Democrats an advantage in 211 seats and Republicans an advantage in 206. Eighteen seats are viewed at toss-ups that could go either way.
Four Democratic-held House seats are classified as toss-ups—those held by Greg Landsman of Ohio, Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Vicente Gonzalez of Texas and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez of Washington.
The GOP-held seats considered toss-ups include those held by Representative David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, David Valadao and Darrell Issa of California, Gabe Evans of Colorado, Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn of Iowa, Tom Barrett of Michigan, Thomas Kean of New Jersey, Mike Lawler of New York, Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin.
How Has House Vote Gone In Recent Elections?
Republicans won control of the House in 2024 with less than a 2-point lead in the popular vote. They won 220 seats to the Democrats’ 215. In 2022, the GOP won the popular vote by just under 3 points, securing 222 seats to the Democrats’ 213.
Democrats held a slim majority after the 2020 elections—222 seats to 213 while winning the popular vote by about 3 points.
In 2018, the last blue wave, Democrats won 235 seats to the Republicans’ 199. They won the popular vote by nearly 9 points.
What Other Polls Show About Midterms
Other polls also give Democrats a lead on the generic ballot.
A YouGov/Bowling Green State University poll released this week gave Democrats an 8-point lead (49 percent to 41 percent). It surveyed 1,200 registered voters from February 13-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos poll gave Democrats a 4-point lead (43 percent to 39 percent). It surveyed 2,589 U.S. adults from February 12-17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
Kalshi’s betting odds gave Democrats an 82 percent chance of winning control of the House, while Polymarket on Thursday gave them an 86 percent chance of flipping the majority.
What People Are Saying
Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek: "If Democrats retake either or both of the chambers in 2026, it will mean the end of any significant legislation, and the beginning of more investigations, and maybe even another impeachment effort. I could possibly foresee, if Republicans and Democrats were willing to gamble, some kind of “grand bargain” on an immigration policy, now that border crossings have been curtailed. The president does like to surprise sometimes. But I wouldn’t expect to see any other kind of large piece of legislation until 2029, at the earliest."
DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton previously told Newsweek: “The data is clear: the American public is souring on House Republicans’ broken promises. People are upset about rising costs, and voters want leaders who will fight for them, not the wealthiest few. Going into the midterms, House Democrats have the better message, stronger candidates, and it’s why we are favored to retake the majority.”
Anthony Scaramucci, the financier who briefly worked as White House communications director during Trump’s first term in office, on X this week: “President Trump is deeply unpopular. He has failed to deliver on campaign promises while engaging in deep corruption and Epstein cover-up. Republicans will get destroyed in mid-terms if they don't change course.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, told Newsmax this week: “If we lost the midterms, heaven forbid, if we lost the majority in the House, it would be the end of the Trump presidency in a real effect.”
What Happens Next
Candidates will spend the coming months making their cases to voters ahead of the midterms. States will begin holding primaries in March, but the general election nationwide is set for November 3.
Polls will be closely watched as a metric of how the American electorate is feeling, but numerous factors, including economic data, foreign policy events, candidate recruitment and localized campaigns, could alter the map.
Update 2/26/26, 2:28 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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