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By Andrew Stanton
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Two new polls suggest warning signs for Democrats in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, though other surveys have pointed to a rosier picture for Representative Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and former Representative Abigail Spanberger in Virginia.
Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of Sherrill and Spanberger, as well as their Republican rivals Jack Ciattarelli and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Election Day is in less than a month, and Sherrill and Spanberger have led nearly every poll of their respective races. Two polls released over the weekend suggest their races could be tightening—with one poll showing Sherrill and Ciattarelli locked in a dead heat. It is to be seen whether those polls will be replicated or if they are outliers, but they underscore the potentially competitive nature of the off-year elections.
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Typically, the party outside of the White House performs well in these races, fueling Democratic optimism about their chances in November. But polls have pointed to a single-digit race in New Jersey, where Ciattarelli outperformed polling in his 2021 run. While Spanberger has held a larger lead, recent controversy over text messages sent by Democrats’ attorney general nominee Jay Jones has injected the race with new uncertainty as Republicans seek to tie Spanberger to the scandal.
What to Know
Candidates are entering the final weeks of the campaign and working to convince their voters to head to the polls. These off-year elections are typically lower turnout, meaning it is critical for both parties to activate their bases to secure a victory in November. There are several factors that appear to benefit Democrats—both states have a blue lean, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating continues to struggle.
But Republicans are still optimistic about their chances in these races—particularly in New Jersey, where they believe polls could again be underestimating Ciattarelli, as they did four years ago when he came close to unseating incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy.
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The latest survey of New Jersey’s race, conducted by conservative pollster Neighborhood Research and Media, showed the two candidates tied with 44.1 percent of the vote. The poll surveyed 311 New Jersey voters from October 6 to October 9 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. It also found that Ciattarelli led unaffiliated voters by a 49-30 margin.
But other polls showed Sherrill up over Ciattarelli.
A survey released by pollster John Zogby found Sherrill leading by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent). Independents backed Sherrill by 5 points in that poll (45 percent to 40 percent). It surveyed 912 likely voters from September 30 to October 2 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
A Fox News poll yielded similar results—showing Sherrill up 8 points among likely voters (50 percent to 42 percent). It surveyed 822 likely voters from September 25 to September 28.
Meanwhile, in Virginia, the latest poll released by the Trafalgar Group showed Spanberger up 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent). It polled 1,066 likely voters from October 8 to October 10, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
This is a contrast from a Washington Post poll released last month, which showed Spanberger up 12 points (55 percent to 43 percent), surveyed 1,022 likely voters from September 25 to September 29. An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 729 likely voters from September 28 to September 29, found Spanberger up 10 points (52 percent to 42 percent).
Those were notably conducted before the release of text messages sent by Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones in which he allegedly suggested a former Virginia House speaker should receive "two bullets to the head.” Republicans have sought to tie Jones and Spanberger, but whether the scandal really affects other races on the ballot is yet to be seen.
What People Are Saying
Matthew Klein and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report wrote in an October 9 update: “Some Democrats’ blood pressure spiked last week after an onslaught of unfriendly headlines and an unusually close poll made them question their odds in the New Jersey gubernatorial contest. But most key indicators still suggest that Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill remains favored over Republican former state Assemblymember Jack Ciattarelli, even if she’s unlikely to notch a blowout.”
Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket wrote on X: “Bookmark it because it will probably blow up in my face: From polling and advertising data, neither Virginia nor New Jersey are tracking to be GOP wins and I remain baffled by the amount of people on X who think Republicans are within striking distance (~3 points) in either.”
Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, wrote on X in response to Trafalgar’s Virginia poll: “Massive shift in momentum.”
What Happens Next
Early voting in Virginia began on September 19 and lasts until November 1. New Jersey early voting will take place from October 25 to November 2. Election Day is set for November 4.
Forecasters give Democrats an advantage in each race. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rank Virginia as Likely Democratic and New Jersey as Leans Democratic.
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