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By James Bickerton
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At a National Press Club appearance on September 26, Senator Gary Peters, chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), said his party was making a "multimillion-dollar investment" in TV advertising in a bid to win Senate races in Texas and Florida.
Peters added that he's "very confident there's going to be more [money] coming," though he didn't specify how much would be spent in the two traditionally Republican-leaning states, in remarks recorded by the local Spectrum News network.
The Democrats currently have a wafer-thin Senate majority, with 51 senators aligned with the party versus 49 with the Republicans.
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However, they are widely expected to lose one senator in November as Joe Manchin of West Virginia, an independent caucusing with the Democrats who developed a cross-party appeal, isn't standing for reelection in what is typically a red state. Republicans are also hoping to unseat Democratic Senator Jon Tester in Montana, a state Donald Trump won by over 16 percentage points in 2020.
To compensate, Democrats are making considerable efforts to unseat Republican Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott in Florida. Cruz, who narrowly won reelection by less than 3 points in 2018, is seen as particularly vulnerable to a challenge from current House Democrat Colin Allred.
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Polling has shown Cruz and Allred locked in a tight race with a recent Morning Consult survey of 2,716 likely Texan voters, conducted between September 9 and 18, finding the Democrat narrowly ahead with 45 percent against 44 for the Republican incumbent.
A Public Policy Polling survey of 759 registered Texan voters, conducted over September 25-26, put Cruz ahead of Allred with 47 percent against 46.
According to an analysis by Open Secrets, a nonprofit that tracks the impact of money on American politics, some $97,440,144 have been raised in the Texas Senate battle as of June 30, more than in any other single Senate campaign. The group also found $79,424,485 has been spent on the Texas Senate race, putting it third highest nationally on Senate campaign spending. This includes $45,224,413 recorded as spent by Cruz and $27,403,500 deployed by Allred.
Reached for comment about the increased TV ad spending, Allred's team referred Newsweek to a statement from his campaign manager, Paige Hutchinson.
She said: "Ted Cruz is weaker and more vulnerable than ever because of his failure to secure the border, his extreme abortion ban that has put women in danger, his efforts to cut Social Security and Medicare and his record of only looking out for himself. On November 5, Colin Allred is going to beat Ted Cruz and give Texas the leadership we deserve."
Newsweek contacted the Cruz campaign for comment via email on Wednesday outside of regular business hours.
Cruz has raised more money than Allred, but he has also been in the campaign longer, as sitting senators effectively start running for reelection as soon as they're sworn in.
Allred joined the race in May 2023, so his fundraising lagged behind Cruz's head start. But Allred's candidacy has drawn substantial Democratic donations to the race, outraising Cruz each quarter since entering the race.
A Rational Move
Speaking to Newsweek, Joshua Blank, director of research for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, argued that pouring resources into their efforts to unseat Cruz is a rational move from the Democrats.
"Elections in Texas have been getting closer and closer, and with Trump and Cruz leading the ticket, Texas Republicans are relying on two candidates who won their previous elections here by 5.58 and 2.58 points, respectively," he said.
"If Texas is really only plus-3 to plus-5 points Republican, it may very well be one of the state's that Democrats should be spending money in. It just so happens that, because of Texas' size, it takes many millions of dollars to have even a marginal impact."
Dafydd Townley, an American politics expert who teaches at the University of Portsmouth in the U.K, told Newsweek Democrats have a plausible chance to secure their first Texas Senate seat since 1988.
He said: "The Cruz/Allred race for the Senate has given Democrats hope that they can achieve victory in a state that has been dominated by the Republican Party in recent history.
"For decades, the hope that Texas could be a 'purple' state, and therefore key to both congressional majorities and the presidential election, has dissipated with continued Republican victories. However, the margin of those victories has been diminishing and this Senate race really does seem to be a genuine contest."
Townley continued: "Cruz has been identified as a susceptible target to keep his Senate seat. He has been constantly on the defensive in his campaign on abortion and his trip to Cancun during a winter storm in 2021.
"The Democrats spending on their campaign in the state has seen the Cook Report change its assessment of Texas from likely Republican to leaning Republican, a subtle but important change that will give Democrats hope of a first senatorial victory in the state since 1988."
Cruz came under fire after taking a family vacation to Cancun, Mexico, in early 2021 in the midst of a winter storm which left millions of Texans without power. The Texas senator later told local network KTRK-TV that he "was trying to be a dad," adding: "It was obviously a mistake and in hindsight I wouldn't have done it."
'Bullish' Democrats
On Tuesday, the influential Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan group that analyzes elections in the U.S., changed the Texas Senate race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" in a boost to Allred's chances.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the U.K.'s University of Surrey, told Newsweek that Democrats are likely focusing on Texas and Florida in the expectation they will lose Senate seats elsewhere.
He said: "The Democrats are bullish that they can hold on to the White House and flip the House of Representatives, but the Achilles' heel in their plan for government is that they're currently on track to lose the Senate. They'll lose Manchin's seat in West Virginia, Jon Tester holding on in Montana looks to be a forlorn hope, and Sherrod Brown remains locked in a too-tight race in Ohio. So, the party is looking for flipable Senate seats and has landed on Rick Scott in Florida and Ted Cruz in Texas.
"Cruz is seen by many as yesterday's man. He's polling well below Trump across the state and his opponent, former NFL football star-turned-civil rights lawyer Colin Allred is the kind of young, telegenic politician likely to appeal to independents and the paler red among Republicans and is thus worth significant DSCC investment."
During his National Press Club appearance, Peters insisted the Democratic emphasis on Texas and Florida won't come at the expense of defending Senator Tester in Montana.
He said: "There is no world that you can conceive of that I'm not going to be in the Montana race to the very end. Jon Tester will have everything that he needs to win."
However, National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Philip Letsou said Peters' comments were "effectively an admission from Chuck Schumer and the DSCC that Jon Tester, who is polling very badly, looks like a lost cause."
He added: "Allred and [former Florida Representative Debbie] Mucarsel-Powell are bad fits for Florida and Texas, and voters will reject them."
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