...
By Andrew Stanton
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Democrats are leading in the latest polls regarding four Senate races for seats currently held by Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Newsweek reached out to the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Democrats have been hopeful about their chances of winning control of the Senate in the November midterms as polls show them with a fighting chance in races where Republicans have been favored. The GOP currently holds a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need to flip four seats to win control of the chamber—or three seats for a tie, though the vice president would serve as the tiebreaker.
Read More on Politics
Early polls provide a glimpse of where the electorate stands around seven months before Election Day, though a lot can change from March to November.
What to Know
The party in the White House historically loses seats in the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating has fueled Democrats’ optimism about their chances in the House of Representatives. But the Senate has been viewed as a heavier lift.
This is because Democrats have few obvious flip opportunities. Maine, where GOP Senator Susan Collins is running for reelection in a state that Trump lost by nearly seven points, and North Carolina, where GOP Senator Thom Tillis is retiring in a state Trump won by three points, are viewed as top Democratic targets.
...
But there are no other seats up for grabs in states Trump lost or won by fewer than 10 points. If Democrats hold onto their current seats and flip Maine and North Carolina, they would still be held to a 49-seat minority. This means Democrats must compete in more solidly conservative states.
The latest Senate polls show Democratic candidates with leads in not only Maine and North Carolina—but in two states Trump won by double digits, as well. Here is a look at what those polls show.
Maine
Collins has won reelection by comfortable margins in Maine in the past, even in tough environments for her party like in 2020, when former President Joe Biden carried the state by nine points. But Democrats are hoping that an even more favorable national environment, as well as increasing political polarization, could make 2026 her toughest reelection yet. Republicans believe she can win reelection due to her personal popularity in the state and bipartisan credentials.
She is likely to face either progressive candidate Graham Platner or Governor Janet Mills in the general election. Polls of the Democratic primary currently give Platner, a political newcomer and oyster farmer, an advantage over Mills. Platner has also led Collins by wider margins than Mills in the general.
The latest Emerson College poll released this week showed Platner up 7 points over Collins in a general election (48 percent to 41 percent), while Mills led Collins by about 3 points (46 percent to 43 percent). It surveyed 1,075 likely voters from March 21-23, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
A Quantus Insights poll also gave Platner a lead over Collins (49 percent to 42 percent), though it showed Collins leading Mills by 2 points (45 percent to 43 percent). It surveyed 800 likely voters from March 3-5.
Republicans have noted that in 2020, Collins trailed her Democratic challenger Sara Gideon in nearly every poll but ended up winning with 51 percent of the vote.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.
North Carolina
North Carolina, a swing state that has been elusive for Democrats in federal elections over the past decade, has given Democrats some of their best polling results of any battleground state so far in the midterms. Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley are set to face off in November after winning their parties' nominations.
A Harper Polling survey showed Cooper was up 8 over Whatley (points (49 percent to 41 percent). It surveyed 600 likely voters from March 22-23, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A Public Policy Polling survey, which surveyed 556 registered voters from March 13-14, showed Cooper up 3 points (47 percent to 44 percent).
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as a toss-up.
Alaska
Alaska, typically viewed as a Republican-leaning state, is among the Democrats’ top targets. It backed Trump by 14 points in 2024, but the candidacy of former Representative Mary Peltola, who held the state’s at-large congressional district from 2022 to 2025, has boosted Democrats’ hopes they can unseat GOP Senator Dan Sullivan.
The latest Alaska Survey Research poll gave her an advantage. Forty-eight percent of respondents backed Peltola, compared to 46.4 percent who backed Sullivan, while an additional 5.6 percent were undecided. It surveyed 1,681 likely voters January 8-11.
An earlier Data for Progress survey gave Peltola a one-point lead over Sullivan (46 percent to 45 percent) among the 823 likely voters surveyed October 17-23, 2025.
The Cook Political Report gives Sullivan an advantage, rating the race as Leans Republican.
Texas
The latest polls out of Texas show Democratic state legislator James Talarico with a lead over his two potential Republican rivals. However, those polls are Democratic internals, which are generally viewed as less reliable than independent polls as they can be selectively released.
An Impact Research poll, which surveyed 900 likely voters from March 12-17, showed Talarico up 2 points over Senator John Cornyn (43 percent to 41 percent) and up one point over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (44 percent to 43 percent) A Public Policy Polling survey, which polled 576 registered voters from March 4-5, showed him up 2 points over Paxton (47 percent to 45 percent) and one point over Cornyn (44 percent to 43 percent).
Talarico defeated Representative Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary earlier in March, but the GOP primary will head to a May runoff because no candidate received an outright majority.
Cornyn, the incumbent senator, has been viewed by some Republicans as being insufficiently conservative over his stance on gun rights and previous comments about Trump. But Cornyn supporters view him as a stronger general election candidate than Paxton, who has faced years of scandals and an impeachment in the Texas House.
Earlier polls from before the primary favor Republicans.
A University of Houston poll, for instance, showed Paxton up 2 points over Talarico (46 percent to 44 percent) and Cornyn up one point (44 percent to 43 percent). It had surveyed 1,502 likely voters from January 20-31 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Likely Republican.
What People Are Saying
National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Nick Puglia previously told Newsweek: “While liberals like Jon Ossoff and Roy Cooper put criminals and violent illegals above hardworking Americans, President Trump and Senate Republicans are reversing years of Democrat chaos with historic middle-class tax cuts, secure borders, and safer communities. Democrats remain rudderless, unpopular, and out of touch as they drag each other farther to the left in messy primaries across the map."
Kyle Kondik, an analyst for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in a January 29 update: “The basic asset for Republicans, and problem for Democrats, is the structure of the Senate map. With Republicans having knocked out all of the remaining Democrats from states that voted for Donald Trump all three times he was on the ballot—a group of 25 states that accounts for half of all the Senate seats—Democrats either have to start winning in redder states again or, over time, essentially sweep all of the Senate seats in blue and purple states.”
CNN data analyst Harry Enten wrote in a post to X on March 19: “This is the most troublesome sign I've seen for Trump & the GOP. Trump's now a record low 41 pts underwater on the cost of living per Yahoo/YouGov. He's 60 pts underwater on the issue with indies!! Wave adios to the House & maybe Senate cause you can't win with these numbers.”
What Happens Next
Democrats are also viewing races in states like Iowa and Ohio as potentially competitive, while Republicans hope to flip Democratic-held seats in states like Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines