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By Aliss Higham
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Betting platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have put the chances of the Democrats taking back the House and the Senate at 50 and 49.8 percent respectively, the highest both platforms have recorded for the upcoming November 2026 midterms.
Why It Matters
Democrats are hoping to win some legislative power back in the upcoming midterms following a Republican sweep in the 2024 election.
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All House seats will be contested in November, giving Democrats a shot at reclaiming the chamber for the first time since Republicans took it in 2022.
Midterm elections have traditionally been difficult for the incumbent president’s party. President Donald Trump’s approval numbers have slipped since returning to office in January 2025, amid voter anxiety over the economy and living costs.
What To Know
Polymarket’s betting market tracker currently shows Democrats as the most likely outcome to control the House while Republicans control the Senate, at 49.8 percent. The next most likely result is Democrats winning the House and Republicans winning the Senate at 36.0 percent.
A full Republican win, with Republicans taking both the House and the Senate, stands at 14.5 percent. The least likely of the listed outcomes is a split in the other direction, with Republicans winning the House and Democrats holding the Senate, at just 1 percent.
Kalshi’s market tracker shows Democrats winning both the House and the Senate as the most likely outcome, at 50 percent. The next most likely result is Democrats taking the House while Republicans hold the Senate, at 36 percent.
The chances of Republican maintaining control of both chambers stands at 15 percent. Again, the least likely listed outcome is Republicans winning the House while Democrats keep the Senate, at 1 percent.
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National Polling
Recent national polling on the 2026 midterm elections suggests a modest Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot, a widely used measure asking voters which party they would support for Congress if the election were held today.
Polling averages compiled by outlets such as RealClearPolitics’ generic congressional ballot tracker show Democrats leading Republicans by roughly four to five points nationally, with the average placing Democrats at about 47 percent support compared with roughly 42–43 percent for Republicans.
Individual national surveys have produced similar margins. A March 6 to 9 Economist/YouGov poll of 1,563 registered voters showed a 45 percent to 41 percent Democratic advantage.
An NBC News national survey conducted between February 27 and March 3 among 1,000 registered voters found Democrats leading the congressional ballot 50 percent to 44 percent - a six-point advantage.
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