...
By Jesus Mesa
Reporter
0
Share
Newsweek is a Trust Project member
See more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.
Democrats may have a narrow opening in Florida’s 2026 elections for governor and U.S. Senate, with a new poll suggesting the party is running closer to Republicans in statewide races than it has in recent years.
The survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab found Republican candidates holding single-digit leads in early potential matchups in the key races.
Why It Matters
Florida has shifted decisively toward the GOP in recent years. Once a notable battleground state, Republicans now hold a significant voter registration advantage, and the party dominated statewide races in 2022, when Governor Ron DeSantis won reelection by nearly 20 percentage points.
Read More on Politics
But Democrats, energized by their results in the November 2025 off-year elections and polling showing vulnerability for Republicans and President Donald Trump, see an opening in the Sunshine State that they have not seen in years.
What To Know
While Republicans still hold a clear advantage in Florida, the margins in polling appear smaller than recent results, giving Democrats hope in the key elections in the state in 2026.
“At least at this stage in these races, vote choice is much more about partisanship than candidate identity,” said Sean Freeder, director of the Public Opinion Research Lab. “Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn’t appear as strong as in previous years.”
The poll also highlights a challenge for Democrats: Many voters remain unfamiliar with their potential candidates.
According to the survey, 66 percent of voters said they had never heard of Senate candidate Alexander Vindman, while 74 percent said they were unfamiliar with Vindman's opponent in the Democratic primary, state House Representative Angie Nixon. The numbers suggest both candidates have significant room to raise their profiles before the August primary.
Who Is Running in Florida Governor's Race?
The early field for governor includes Representative Byron Donalds, a Republican congressman from southwest Florida and an ally of President Donald Trump; David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who later became a Democrat; and Jerry Demings, the Democratic mayor of Orange County and a former Orlando police chief and county sheriff.
...
Democrats' Chances of Beating Republicans in Florida Governor Race
While Republicans remain heavily favored in Florida, the new polling from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab suggests Democrats may be closer to contention than in recent cycles.
In a hypothetical matchup, Donalds leads Jolly 42 percent to 36 percent, with 17 percent of voters undecided. Donalds also leads Demings 43 percent to 36 percent, with 16 percent unsure.
The relatively large share of undecided voters leaves room for the race to shift as candidates become better known and the campaign develops.
Who Is Running in Florida Senate Race?
Florida’s U.S. Senate race is also expected to draw heavy Democratic attention as the party needs to flip four seats to wrest control of the upper chamber from the GOP.
Republican Senator Ashley Moody is running for a full term after getting appointed to the seat when former Senator Marco Rubio joined the Trump administration as Secretary of State. Moody previously served as Florida’s attorney general.
Democrats running for the seat include Vindman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel known for his role in Trump’s first impeachment inquiry, and Nixon, a progressive state representative from Jacksonville.
...
Democrats' Chances of Beating Republicans in Florida Senate Race
The poll shows Moody with a modest advantage over both Democratic contenders, though the margins remain within single digits.
In the survey, Moody leads Vindman 45 percent to 38 percent and holds a similar edge over Nixon, 46 percent to 38 percent.
What Do Floridians Think of President Donald Trump?
Democrats see a potential opening in Florida tied to voters’ mixed views of Trump. Poll director Sean Freeder said presidential approval often influences down-ballot races, meaning Trump’s standing could shape congressional and statewide contests as the 2026 midterms approach.
The University of North Florida poll shows Floridians closely divided on Trump, with 45 percent viewing him favorably and 48 percent unfavorably.
Opinions split sharply along party lines. Among Republicans, 83 percent have a favorable view of Trump, while 87 percent of Democrats view him unfavorably.
Independent voters are more negative. The poll found Trump’s favorability among independents at 31 percent, compared with 57 percent unfavorable.
What People Are Saying
Sean Freeder, director of the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab and a professor of political science, said in a press release: “Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn’t appear as strong as in previous years, which is not unusual given that the president’s party often struggles in midterm elections.”
Representative Byron Donalds said during a campaign rally in Bonita Springs, Florida, on March 28, 2025: “This is the free state of Florida, and as your next governor, it will remain the free state of Florida.”
Jerry Demings said during a campaign launch rally in Orlando on November 6, 2025: “If you vote for me, it’s a vote for a new style of leadership. It’s a vote for change. It’s a vote for democracy. It’s a vote for the right person at the right time.”
What Happens Next
Florida’s 2026 races are still in the early stages. The state has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994 and has not elected a Democrat to Senate since 2012.
The primary elections are scheduled for August 18, 2026, when voters will choose the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor, U.S. Senate and other offices.
The general election will take place on November 3, 2026, during the nationwide midterm elections.
View 0 Comments
Submit Correction
View Editorial & AI Guidelines