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By Andrew Stanton
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Democrats received a boost on Monday in their chances of winning four critical Senate seats in the 2026 midterm elections.
Joanna Rodriguez, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), told Newsweek, “The 2026 Senate battleground is going to come down to a small number of very competitive races in true swing states that no one can take for granted, but Republicans remain favored to hold the Senate Majority and the NRSC has built our strategy, candidate recruitment, and resource deployment around winning exactly that kind of map."
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for comment via email.
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Why It Matters
Republicans have been favored to hold onto their 53-47 majority in the Senate, even though the national environment is likely to be friendly to Democrats. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating threatens to sink Republicans in key races.
But the Senate map is difficult for Democrats. GOP-held seats in Maine, a Democratic-leaning state, and North Carolina, which backed Trump by only about 3 points in 2024, are viewed as their top targets. But there are no other seats narrowly lost by Trump or carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris up for grabs in 2026, so Democrats must win in more conservative states to secure a majority.
Four Senate Races Shift Toward Democrats: What to Know
The Cook Political Report shifted four races toward Democrats in its Monday update.
“With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats’ favor. But due to the difficulty of the map, winning back a majority still remains a tall order. The GOP remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber. However, that outlook could change in the coming months,” Cook Political Report analyst Jessica Taylor wrote in the update.
Georgia and North Carolina shifted from toss-up to Lean Democrat in the latest update. Ohio’s Senate race shifted from Lean Republican to a toss-up, and Nebraska’s Senate race shifted from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
Here is a look at where things stand in each of those races.
Georgia
Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, is running for reelection in Georgia, a state that has become increasingly competitive over the past decade as Atlanta and its suburbs grow and become more liberal. Trump carried Georgia by about 2 points in 2024, after former President Joe Biden won it by less than 0.5 percentage points in 2020.
Ossoff, elected in 2021, has been leading in polls.
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Representatives Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, as well as former Tennessee Volunteers coach Derek Dooley, are all battling to take on Ossoff in November.
The latest Emerson College poll of the race gave Ossoff a lead over three of his potential Republican challengers. He led Carter by 3 points (47 percent to 44 percent), Collins by 5 points (48 percent to 43 percent) and Dooley by 8 points (49 percent to 41 percent).
It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from February 28-March 2, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Nebraska
Nebraska is not ordinarily considered to be competitive, as it backed Trump by more than 20 points in 2024. However, some analysts believe there is a possibility for a surprise in this year’s race due to independent candidate Dan Osborn’s decision to run against Republican Senator Pete Ricketts.
Osborn ran in 2024 against Republican Senator Deb Fischer and made the race more competitive than expected, losing by fewer than 7 points in the traditionally Republican state. Democrats are hopeful a more favorable national environment could help push him across the finish line this year.
The Nebraska Democratic Party has endorsed Osborn, who is viewed as a more moderate candidate. Osborn has not said whether he would caucus with either Democrats or Republicans if elected.
Early polls point to a competitive race. An Impact Research poll, a Democratic internal, gave Ricketts a single-point lead over Osborn (48 percent to 47 percent). It surveyed 600 likely voters from February 2-5, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
John Dolan, Osborn’s campaign manager, touted the update as a sign that his “momentum only continues to grow.”
“Every single poll shows this race is a dead heat. Dan has raised over $3 million. Now, this updated rating from Cook Political Report indicates that national pundits are catching on to what we’ve known all along: that this race is going to be one of the most competitive in the country. Nebraskans are ready to fix Washington, and the way to start is by replacing a corrupt billionaire with a mechanic in the United States Senate,” he wrote.
North Carolina
Republican Senator Thom Tillis opted to retire, leaving his North Carolina seat open heading into the midterms. Democrats are running former Governor Roy Cooper, while Republicans nominated former RNC Chair Michael Whatley.
Democrats have performed well in North Carolina's statewide races in recent years, but the state has backed Republicans in federal elections. It last elected a Democratic senator in 2008, the same year it backed a Democrat for president. But polling has been positive for Democrats so far in 2026.
A Harper Polling survey showed Cooper was up 8 points over Whatley (49 percent to 41 percent). It surveyed 600 likely voters from March 22-23, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A Public Policy Polling survey of 556 registered voters from March 13-14 showed Cooper up 3 points (47 percent to 44 percent).
Ohio
In Ohio, a former battleground that has become more conservative over the past decade, Democrats are hoping to flip the seat held by Vice President JD Vance prior to Trump’s 2024 victory. Senator Jon Husted, appointed by Governor Mike DeWine to serve the remainder of Vance’s term, is running unopposed in the GOP primary. Meanwhile, former Senator Sherrod Brown is likely to be the Democratic nominee. Brown lost reelection in 2024.
Polls have shown a close race.
A Quantus Insights poll gave Husted a narrow lead over Brown (45.5 percent to 44.4 percent). It surveyed 784 likely voters from March 13-14, 2026. An On Message Public Strategies Survey showed Brown up 2 points over Husted (47 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 600 likely voters from March 3-8, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
The DSCC wrote in a statement on Monday: “As Senate Democrats continue to build momentum heading into the November midterms, election analysts at Cook Political Report have moved multiple Senate races – including North Carolina, Georgia, and Ohio – in Democrats’ favor. Across the map, Democrats have created a clear path to taking back the Senate majority by recruiting all-star candidates, building strong general-election infrastructure, and capitalizing on a Republican field defined by weak and deeply flawed nominees.”
National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Nick Puglia previously told Newsweek: “While liberals like Jon Ossoff and Roy Cooper put criminals and violent illegals above hardworking Americans, President Trump and Senate Republicans are reversing years of Democrat chaos with historic middle-class tax cuts, secure borders, and safer communities. Democrats remain rudderless, unpopular, and out of touch as they drag each other farther to the left in messy primaries across the map."
Kyle Kondik, an analyst for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in a January 29 update: “The basic asset for Republicans, and problem for Democrats, is the structure of the Senate map. With Republicans having knocked out all of the remaining Democrats from states that voted for Donald Trump all three times he was on the ballot—a group of 25 states that accounts for half of all the Senate seats—Democrats either have to start winning in redder states again or, over time, essentially sweep all of the Senate seats in blue and purple states.”
What Happens Next
The Cook Political Report classifies Maine, where GOP Senator Susan Collins is running for reelection, and Michigan, an open race in a major swing state, as the two other toss-up races. New Hampshire is viewed as Lean Democrat, and Alaska is viewed as Lean Republican in its latest forecast.
Update 4/13/26 1:38 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 4/13/26 5:46 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Joanna Rodriguez.
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