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By Mandy Taheri
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In this Midwestern state that President Donald Trump won three times and has been run by a Republican for 15 years, Iowa voters gave the edge to Democratic candidate Rob Sand in the Hawkeye State's gubernatorial race, polling shows.
Republican Governor Kim Reynolds announced she will not seek reelection in 2026 and a Democrat has not led Iowa since Chet Culver was governor from 2007 to early 2011. The GOP also holds a majority in the state’s House and Senate.
Why It Matters
For the first time since 1968 in Iowa, the governor's office and a U.S. Senate seat are open on the same ballot, following Senator Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek reelection. The gubernatorial polling reflects signs of a competitive shift toward Democrats in a state that has trended Republican.
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Top senatorial candidates include Ashley Hinson, U.S. representative for Iowa's 2nd District and former news anchor. She has significant financial backing, with over $6.5 million in cash on hand, and has been endorsed by Trump and Ernst.
State Senator Zach Wahls and state Representative and three-time Paralympic medalist Josh Turek lead the Democratic hopefuls for the Senate seat.
What To Know
A new Echelon Insights poll of 377 people found that Sand leads Republican Randy Feenstra 51 percent to 39 percent in the race for governor.
Sand, a lawyer who served as Iowa's assistant attorney general from 2010 to 2017, has been the state auditor since 2019. He also ran for governor in 2022.
Feenstra, the expected Republican front-runner, was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2020. He serves on the Ways and Means and Agriculture Committees. Other Republicans are competing in the race, like former Iowa state Representative Brad Sherman, state Representative Eddie Andrews and former Department of Administrative Services Director Adam Steen, among others.
Trump carried Iowa by about 13 percentage points in 2024, after winning the state in 2020 and 2016.
The Cook Political Report changed the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” earlier this month. Cook cited internal polling from both parties that shows Sand leading Feenstra, along with a significant fundraising edge for Sand. It reported Sand held $13.2 million in cash on hand compared with Feenstra’s $3.2 million, a gap expected to sustain Sand’s statewide media presence through November.
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At the time, Iowa Republican Party Chair Jeff Kaufmann called out the report, saying on X, “[the] analysis is lazy, naïve, uses Sand internal polling, and regurgitates Democrat talking points.”
A poll conducted by GBAO from March 10 to March 16 found Sand ahead with 50 percent to Feenstra's 42 percent. About 8 percent of participants were undecided. Among independents, Sand's lead grows, 57 percent to Feenstra's 29 percent. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent. It was sponsored by ModSquad, a group supporting moderate Democratic candidates, according to Politico.
An October poll conducted by Z to A Research, a Democratic pollster, found that 45 percent of respondents plan to back Sand and 43 percent chose Feenstra. Eleven percent were undecided.
Polymarket predicts a Democrat winning the Iowa governorship, with 74 percent odds, leaving Republican at 26 percent.
What Happens Next
The primary is set for June 2.
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