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By Sam Stevenson
Associate News Editor
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Democrats are strengthening their position in Michigan’s gubernatorial race as Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson consolidates her support, according to a new poll.
A MIRS/Mitchell Research poll, conducted between May 1-7, shows Benson leading Republican John James on 42 percent to 30 percent, while independent candidate Mike Duggan is on 13 percent. The poll questioned 607 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- six percent.
This result marks a clear shift from late 2025, when James held a six-point lead in the same three-way matchup.
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Newsweek contacted the leading Michigan gubernatorial campaigns for comment.
What To Know at a Glance
• The race has moved from a near-dead heat earlier this year to Benson leading in two recent polls.
• Duggan's role remains pivotal, but polling suggests his coalition and vote-splitting effects have shifted over time.
• The latest MIRS/Mitchell poll shows a larger Democratic margin than a Chamber/Glengariff poll (shown in the chart below), taken around the same period, underscoring uncertainty over the size of the lead.
Why It Matters
Michigan is the definition of a modern swing state: it is competitive at the presidential level, polarized, and often decided on turnout and marginal persuasion rather than sweeping realignments.
The series of polls indicate possible shifting attitudes in the state: late-2025 data showed Benson trailing, early-2026 data showed a three-way tie, and the newest surveys now place her in the lead.
From GOP Edge To Dead Heat To Democratic Lead
In the MIRS/Mitchell Research poll from November 2025, James was ahead on 37 percent to Benson’s 31 percent, with Duggan at 18 percent and 14 percent undecided. The poll was conducted on 616 likely voters, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.
A Detroit Regional Chamber/Glengariff Group poll, conducted between January 27 and February 2, 2026, found a three-way dead heat with Duggan on 29.8 percent, James on 28.3 percent, and Benson on 27.8 percent. The poll was conducted on 600 registered Michigan voters and had a margin of error of +/- four percent.
A follow-up Detroit Regional Chamber/Glengariff poll, conducted between April 28 and May 1, put Benson ahead on 34.2 percent, followed by James on 29.2 percent and Duggan on 23 percent. The survey included 600 likely November general election voters and had a margin of error of +/- four percent.
What The Benson Camp Is Saying
Benson's campaign has seized on the polling momentum to frame the race as a referendum on competing economic visions.
"Not one but two polls released this week confirm what we already know: Jocelyn's vision for a more affordable state is resonating with voters all over Michigan," said campaign manager Nikki Goldschein.
"This momentum and grassroots support for her campaign to lower costs, raise wages and protect our rights and freedoms will continue to grow as we get closer to Election Day," she added, arguing that Republican candidates are "more focused on appeasing Donald Trump, courting corporate PACs and MAGA donors."
Goldschein concluded with a confident prediction: "Come November, Jocelyn will win and make good on her promise to build a Michigan where all can get ahead and thrive."
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What Prediction Markets and Forecasters Say
Prediction markets tracking the Michigan governor's race point to a consistent Democratic advantage, though not a locked race.
On Kalshi, traders currently price a Democratic victory at around 64 percent, compared with 13 percent for Republicans and roughly 16 percent for Duggan, reflecting a clear but not overwhelming lead for the party.
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
Yes 70% · No 30%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
Polymarket shows a similar picture, with Democrats at 70 percent, Republicans at 17 percent, and independents at 14 percent.
Professional election forecasters, however, are more cautious.
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rated the race a "Tossup" in late summer 2025, while Race to the White House shifted it slightly toward Democrats, listing the contest as "Tilt D" as of May 7, 2026.
What Happens Next
Michigan's gubernatorial race is still months away, with the primaries set to take place on August 4, before the general election on November 3.
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