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By Andrew Stanton
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Dan Osborn, an independent candidate challenging Republican Senator Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, allegedly said President Donald Trump’s wall along the U.S.-Mexico border is a “symbol of racism.”
Why It Matters
The comments underscore a central challenge for Osborn, who is seeking to build a winning coalition to unseat a Republican incumbent in a reliably red state. The independent candidate is hoping to win over some Republicans and independents while also holding support among Democrats to win in November.
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Ricketts and Republicans have attacked Osborn's record as being more aligned with Democrats, but Osborn has said he would not plan to caucus with either party if elected.
Prior to the new report, the race looked to be competitive in some recent polls. But defeating a Republican in such a conservative state remains an uphill battle.
Nebraska backed President Donald Trump by more than 20 points, but some Democrats hope the seat could become more competitive due to growing voter frustration over the economy, the unpopular war in Iran and backlash over Trump’s plan to import foreign beef.
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An Osborn victory would have major implications for the Senate. He would become a key swing vote in the chamber and could deny Republicans a vote on some of Trump’s priorities in a state they would otherwise be expected to easily win.
Dan Osborn Shifts Tone on Trump’s Border Wall
Politico reported on leaked audio on Tuesday that Osborn criticized the border wall, a cornerstone of Trump’s political legacy, during a meeting with Latino and Black Democrats from July.
Participants pressed him on his immigration stance, asking him about using the term “illegal” to describe undocumented immigrants and how he really feels about the border wall.
“I knew the wall—it’s a joke. It’s a symbol of racism, really, is what the wall represents. It does nothing, you know,” Osborn allegedly said.
It’s a shift from Osborn’s 2024 run, when he said in an advertisement that he aligned with Trump on the border. He said in the ad, “If Trump needs helping building a wall, I’m pretty handy.”
Victory in Nebraska would require Osborn to win some Republican votes in November due to the GOP’s strong advantage in the state. While Trump’s approval has plummeted among Democrats and independents, he remains popular with Republicans, particularly on immigration issues.
Max Oberg, Ricketts’ deputy campaign manager, wrote in a statement to Newsweek, "This is now the second leaked audio of Dan Osborn revealing who he actually is: a socialist Democrat in disguise. Fake Dan Osborn is fully comfortable lying to Nebraska voters to gain power.”
Newsweek reached out to the Osborn campaign for comment via email.
The latest poll from Ipsos and Reuters showed that overall, Trump’s net approval on immigration was -18 points, 55 percent disapproving and 37 percent approving. Among Republicans, however, his net approval on the issue was +71 points, 84 percent approving and only 13 percent disapproving.
It surveyed 1,167 Americans from August 28 to 31, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent among all respondents.
Nebraska Senate Race: What Polls Show
Polling on the race has been quite limited, but a few recent surveys have suggested a potentially close race in Nebraska despite its conservative lean.
Osborn and Ricketts were tied in a recent poll from Impact Research, a Democratic polling firm. They each received 47 percent support in the poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters from August 9 to 13, 2026.
A Tavern Research poll from May showed Osborn with a 5-point lead over Ricketts, 47 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 1,165 likely voters from May 8 to 11, 2026 and had a margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.
There is no Democratic candidate running in the race. Democrats in the state have largely coalesced around Osborn’s candidacy.
Ricketts Leads Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have favored Ricketts. The Republican incumbent had a 71 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and a 69 percent chance on Polymarket as of Tuesday morning.
Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.
Osborn’s Independent Pitch
Osborn has cast himself as a true independent who aligns with neither party on all issues. He told CNN in August that if elected, he does not plan to caucus with either party.
“I plan on remaining an independent,” he said.
He also dismissed concerns about whether he could serve on a committee without being part of either party.
“People are going to want to be able to earn my vote and get things done. The way I understand it is every senator is guaranteed at least three committees,” he said.
Republicans, however, have pushed back on the idea that he is independent.
“Democrat Dan Osborn is a grifter who wants to raise taxes on Nebraska families and work with the radical left to open our borders. Nebraskans will reject Osborn again,” NRSC regional press secretary Nick Puglia said in a statement in July.
Republicans’ Advantage in Nebraska
Osborn faces a steep challenge in Nebraska, particularly because Republicans have a large advantage in voter registration.
As of September, there were 619,984 registered Republicans and 327,935 registered Democrats across Nebraska. There were only 282,473 people who are nonpartisan and 28,277 Nebraskans registered with other parties, according to registration numbers from the Nebraska Secretary of State office.
The state backed Trump in all three of his presidential runs, though his margins were narrower than Republican victories earlier in the century.
Trump won Nebraska by just over 20 points in 2024 after winning it by 19 points in 2020 and 25 points in 2016. The state also voted for Republicans by 22 points in 2012, 15 points in 2008, 33 points in 2004 and 29 points in 2000. Democrats haven’t carried the state presidentially since 1964.
Democrats last won a Senate race in Nebraska in 2006, when Senator Ben Nelson won reelection. He retired six years later in 2012, and Nebraska picked Republican Deb Fischer to replace him.
Even as Trump won by 20 points in 2024, Osborn was able to keep the race in the single digits against Republican Senator Deb Fischer, who won by roughly 53.2 percent to 46.5 percent.
Nebraska’s vast, rural regions keep the state Republican, despite a few blue dots in cities such as Omaha and Lincoln.
Democrats’ Chances of Flipping the Senate
Overall, the Senate map presents Democrats with a challenging path to a majority after the midterms, but Democrats are increasingly hopeful about their chances of pulling off an upset to flip control of the chamber. An Osborn victory in Nebraska would make it easier for them to flip the upper chamber.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to secure a majority because Vice President JD Vance would serve as the tiebreaker in a 50-50 Senate.
Democrats are defending two seats in states Trump won in 2024, Georgia and Michigan. Republican-held seats in Maine, which Trump lost by 7 points in 2024, and North Carolina, which he won by 3 points, are viewed as Democrats’ top pickup opportunities.
But no other Republican-held seats in states that Trump either won by single digits or outright lost are up for grabs this year. That means Democrats need to turn to more conservative territory to win a majority.
GOP-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are viewed as potential pickup opportunities despite backing Trump by double digits in 2024. The Cook Political Report rates each of those races as tossups.
Prediction markets showed a close race for Senate control, with Kalshi giving Republicans a 53 percent chance of winning and Polymarket giving Democrats a 53 percent chance as of Tuesday morning.
What Happens Next
Ricketts remains favored by elections forecasters, with both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball considering the race to be Likely Republican. The impact of the leaked audio tape and whether it alienates potential Republican supporters may be seen over the coming weeks. Both Osborn and Ricketts will spend the next few months making their cases to voters in Nebraska.
Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.
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