By Peter Roff
Newsweek Contributing Editor
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On Tuesday, before an enthusiastic Orlando, Florida, crowd estimated to be in the tens of thousands, Donald Trump announced he'd be a candidate for re-election. Not that it was ever in doubt he would. He's enjoying himself too much to choose to be a one-term president.
His last campaign was, he said, about making America great again. The next one will be about keeping it that way, a promise that was met with thunderous approval by those in attendance, some of whom had traveled many miles to be there.
Generally, the whole thing was a fizzle as far as the national political media was concerned. To them, the question isn't and never has been whether he would run again. Everyone presumed he would. What they want to know is, Can he win?
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On that point, the data that usually informs the smart set's opinion regarding what's going to happen is at best fuzzy. There are plenty of metrics suggesting he's a strong favorite to win a second term, while others suggest he's going to be blown out in a landslide comparable to what Ronald Reagan did to Jimmy Carter in 1980.
The truth is nobody knows—and that's usually the case this far out. The Democrats started running early, probably because they sensed blood in the water because of the collusion accusations, the generally bad press aimed at president, the outsize negative reaction to his tweets and what they expected the Mueller report to say.
On that last point at least, they must be disappointed. Despite what some of them claim, the report didn't deliver a "smoking gun" persuasive enough to turn Trump's supporters against him. His average approval rating, which is determined by looking at a variety of polls, has held steady around 45 percent for most of his presidency, according to polling analyst Ron Faucheux's newsletter, Lunchtime Politics. It can be inferred that the people who put him in office are sticking with him.
On the other hand, there are plenty of state polls showing Trump running well behind former Vice President Joe Biden and others in the herd of Democratic contenders for the nomination. The president is said to be behind in Florida and Texas—which he won in 2016 and which no Republican can win the White House without—as well as in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. Whether this is because of his trade policies, which are said to be hurting manufacturing interests in the latter states, or because his presidential style grates on marginal Republicans and independents, no one can be sure. But it's an issue his campaign team—which is raising record amounts of money, according to the Republican National Committee's consistent press releases on the topic—is going to have to address.
It's also important to remember it's early. Reagan was, at this point in the 1984 cycle, losing badly to Walter Mondale. In case anyone forgets, Reagan ended up carrying every state but Mondale's Minnesota (which he lost by only 7,000 votes) and the District of Columbia. Early polls conducted before the race is set, either state by state or nationally, aren't exactly meaningless, but it would be a big mistake to bet the farm on what they predict.
Another thing to think about is how wrong the polls have been over the past few years, and not just in the United States. Something is either wrong with the data being collected or with the methods used to analyze it. The next time someone says the polls show Trump is sure to lose, remember they also said he'd lose to Hillary Clinton, that the British Brexit referendum would be defeated and that the governing conservative party would lose to the left in the just-concluded Australian parliamentary elections.
No one is sure why the polls have been off by so much so often lately. It may be that the emergence of cellphones over landlines has inherently distorted survey samples. It may also be that supporters of conservative politicians like Trump and issues like Brexit are embarrassed to tell pollsters what they really think and what they really intend to do, since those positions are criticized so heavily and frequently in print and on the 24-hour cable station chat shows.
The second point is understandable when the president and his policies are routinely described by supposedly credible sources and outlets as hateful, racist, anti-women, divisive, ignorant and worse. There are plenty of people who might be embarrassed to admit they support Trump if it means having to explain why they are none of these things.
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On the plus side for Trump, the economy is roaring. The incentive-leading-to-growth approach his administration has taken to the economy is working. Gross domestic product is growing by about 3 percent or more per quarter, unemployment is down—to record lows among some groups like black, women and Hispanics—and there are more jobs available than there are people looking for work. There's no inflation, and interest rates are steady. If it really is about "the economy, stupid," as Bill Clinton's campaign famously said, then right now Trump is a lock for a second term.
The truth is in the middle. He has a high climb to re-election, but so does the Democrat eventually chosen to run against him. It's a long time until November 2020. A lot can happen between now and then.
Newsweek contributing editor Peter Roff has written extensively about politics and the American experience for U.S. News and World Report*, United Press International, and other publications. He can be reached by email at RoffColumns@GMAIL.com. Follow him on Twitter @PeterRoff*
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
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