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By Brendan Cole
Senior Reporter
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President Donald Trump has said there could be “big surprises” ahead of the mid-term elections on November 3, raising speculation that he might pull something out of a hat before Americans go to the polls.
Trump made the comment on Wednesday during an address near Baltimore at a new Maryland shipyard that will construct submarines.
"We have some big surprises coming up in another few weeks,” Trump said, without specifying further, teasing the prospect of a big measure before the mid-term elections.
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The opaque statement raises speculation over whether Trump intended to make a major policy announcement, order a government action or was referring to another election-related development.
“The president has been suitably vague in suggesting what surprises he may unleash on the public this October,” Mark Shanahan, a U.S. political expert from the University of Surrey, England, told Newsweek.
“While he is not on the ballot, he has sought to make this election a referendum on his performance—and that's worrying GOP candidates as Trump 2.0 is not popular and is dragging the party down in the polls.”
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Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment.
Tax Cut or Tax Change
Trump referred to Russell Vought, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, when he suggested an imminent pre-election measure.
"He's going to be one of the very important people in the history of our country,” Trump said of one of his administration’s most influential officials. “He's got some great things happening."
Name-checking Vought could offer a clue given his role in the administration’s efforts to cut spending, shrink federal agencies and lay off federal workers.
One possibility for a big-ticket announcement could be a tax change to woo voters.
In an August Fox Business conversation, National Economic Council (NEC) director Kevin Hassett and host Larry Kudlow discussed how the White House may propose new tax breaks.
Kudlow said he had spoken to Trump about indexing capital gains to inflation and making changes to capital gains taxes on home sales, which could protect more of the homeowners’ profits from taxes.
However, changes to the home sale capital gains exclusion would need congressional approval, and it is not certain how committed the Trump administration would be to this.
More Direct Payments?
Trump could make an announcement as dramatic as when he told a rally in Dallas on September 9 that every American adult would get $5,000 if the GOP kept control of both houses of Congress after the election.
Figures from both sides criticized Trump’s proposal and experts have also priced the measure at $1.2 trillion, noting that it would require approval from Congress already dealing with a ballooning budget deficit.
Another direct payment could be a headline grabber and a potential vote winner, especially as the Trump administration began sending $500 checks to over 950,000 Americans in 30 states.
These payments were refunds for what the administration said were in response to overcharges through the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
“A nod to Russ Vought would suggest some kind of economic benefit —or bribe— but with prices rising leading to inflationary pressures, there's very little wiggle room for giveaways,” said Shanahan.
Announcement on Energy Prices?
The $500 checks come amid a growing affordability crisis in the U.S. as Americans face sky-high costs at the pump.
The national average price for regular gas is $4.36 a gallon as of Thursday, up from $3.12 a year ago. Diesel costs $6.28 a gallon, up from $3.68 a year ago.
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Any announcement that could ease the pressure at the pump would be welcome for American voters. At the end of last month, Trump said his administration was considering a unilateral ban on U.S. diesel exports.
The administration would hope this could increase domestic supply and put downward pressure on fuel prices, but there have been warnings that it could cause shockwaves across international energy markets.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last month that no move had been formally enacted yet, and that voluntary refiner commitments and targeted domestic supply allocations were also being looked at.
"Trump may still stop selling U.S. diesel abroad," said Shanahan, which might ease prices at the pump but "risks further global economic turmoil which will hit the U.S. economy hard too."
Iran War Development?
The high energy prices faced by Americans have been a political cost for Trump, caused in part by the Iran War he co-launched with Israel.
This means that any announcement of a breakthrough on the conflict could give Trump a boost.
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But with energy markets remaining upended by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said Wednesday he no longer wants a deal with Tehran.
“I think the deal isn’t really something that I want to do,” Trump said, “but they’re (Tehran) willing to offer us anything to stop.”
His comments follow an NBC report citing unnamed officials that the U.S. is weighing up whether to resume large-scale U.S. military operations in the coming weeks.
Axios reported that this could include “massive bombing” of Iranian energy, infrastructure, and nuclear targets and that this military aggression could influence the midterm elections.
“Trump may be looking to land a deal on Iran, but the Tehran regime seems very unwilling to negotiate to get Trump out of a hole of his own making,” said Shanahan.
Election Interference?
Trump’s hint about “big surprises” prompted some to suggest some sort of electoral intervention.
Joyce Vance, a former Obama-appointed U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, posted on X “election interference in the offing” after Trump’s announcement.
Trump tried to overturn his 2020 election loss and still falsely claims that he won.
In the run-up to the midterms, Trump has accused Democrats of cheating to win elections and has tried to cast doubt about the integrity of U.S. ballots.
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Trump has issued executive orders for new voting restrictions and directed the Department of Homeland Security to look for noncitizens on the voting rolls.
In an interview with Time, Trump did not rule out declaring a national emergency at the time of the midterms or invoking the Insurrection Act, which would allow him to deploy the military during civil disorder.
“The most chilling October surprise, especially if Republican votes are on the slide, would be to invoke the Insurrection Act,” said Shanahan.
“Trump has treated the whole of his second term as an emergency. Don't rule him out from pressing the Constitutional nuclear button,” he added.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Gray R. Thomas
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