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By James Bickerton
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Voters across the nation cast their ballots Tuesday in high-stakes midterm elections that will determine which party holds control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate.
Republicans seek to defend their narrow majorities in Congress while Democrats look to capitalize on competitive races that could flip control of both chambers in their favor. In the House, Republicans have a 218-214 majority, and, in the Senate, have a 53-47 majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate and a net gain of three seats to win control of the House.
Should Democrats take control of the House, they will gain the ability to launch impeachment proceedings against members of the Trump administration, including President Donald Trump. During his first term, the president survived an unprecedented two impeachment bids launched by House Democrats.
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Securing majorities in either chamber would grant Democrats substantial authority over Trump's legislative agenda and broad oversight to investigate executive conduct, potentially turning the administration into a "lame duck" for its last two years. However, Trump has threatened to "veto everything" should the Democrats win control of Congress.
"I guess I'll become Mr. Veto," Trump said this week if Republicans lose control of Congress. "They'll be sending stuff up. You veto it. And eventually, after a month or two of getting all vetoed—they're just wasting time—they come over, and you make a deal. I think that probably would happen, but hopefully we don't have to worry about that."
Newsweek contacted the White House, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for comment on Tuesday via email.
Election Forecasts
Election forecasters are predicting a strong result for Democrats in the midterms as the national environment has become challenging for the GOP.
Final forecasts of the midterms have pointed to a “blue wave” for the Democratic Party. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, so Democrats have been optimistic about their chances to flip control of Congress. That optimism has grown as Trump’s approval rating has fallen amid voter frustration with the state of the economy and cost of living.
Polls have given Democrats an edge in the battle to control the House, as well as in key Senate races.
Public polling has overestimated Democrats in the past, particularly in presidential races. However, polls were generally more accurate in recent midterms. In 2022, RealClearPolitics’ aggregate showed Republicans with a 2.5-point lead, only a hair closer than the GOP’s eventual 2.8-point victory on the generic ballot.
As of Monday, RealClearPolitics gave Democrats an 8.9-point lead on the generic ballot.
Nate Silver is bullish on Democrats’ chances to win the Senate. His polling aggregate gave them an edge in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, while pointing to very close races in Louisiana, Nebraska and South Carolina. On the generic ballot, his forecast gave Democrats a 9.4-point lead, which would be the largest for either party in the national popular vote since 2010.
The last forecast by Elliott Morris' FiftyPlusOne model gave Democrats a 99 percent chance of winning the House, a 79 percent chance of flipping the Senate and a 79 percent chance of securing both the Senate and House.
Natalie Baldassarre, the national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, told Newsweek on Monday that polls historically “underestimate support for Republicans.”
“Polls may suggest one thing, but the American people get the final say, and Republicans remain laser-focused on driving voters to the polls, defying history, and protecting our majorities,” she said.
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How Does Impeachment Work?
The U.S. Constitution grants “the sole power of impeachment to the House of Representatives,” meaning Democrats must win the lower chamber if they want to launch an impeachment bid without at least some cross-party support.
An impeachment bid would begin with an investigation into alleged presidential misconduct by a House committee, often the Judiciary Committee, which can subpoena witnesses potentially including the president himself.
The Constitution lays out three categories for impeachment—“treason,” “bribery” and the much broader “high crimes and misdemeanors.” If a committee determines that sufficient grounds exist, it drafts formal articles of impeachment for consideration by the full chamber.
Impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House on any single article. If approved, the president is formally impeached, and the matter then advances to the Senate for trial.
An impeachment trial is presided over by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, which can examine evidence and subpoena witnesses. Conviction requires a two-thirds vote of the senators present—67 votes if all 100 senators participate.
If convicted, the president would immediately be removed from office and replaced by the vice president. The Senate could also vote to disqualify the president from holding office in the future.
What Have Democrats Said
When asked about a potential third Trump impeachment bid by ABC News in September, Jeffries said, “We haven’t ruled anything in, and we haven't ruled anything out.”
Representative Steve Scalise, the Republican House Majority Leader, has said he expects an impeachment bid against Trump on “day one” if Democrats win the midterms.
Representative Robert Garcia, the most senior Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, has indicated if the Democrats win the midterms, they plan to focus investigations on the Trump family’s business interests, the Epstein files, federal conduct during immigration enforcement, corporate profiteering and Secretary of Health Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vaccine policies.
Citing “nearly a dozen congressional staffers, political lobbyists, lawyers, investors and executives” The Washington Post reported last week that Democrats plan to investigate defense technology, manufacturing and mining companies that are linked to the Trump administration.
Should Democrats conclude any of these issues cross the threshold for impeaching Trump they will have to decide whether it is advantageous to proceed, given the likelihood the Senate will acquit him for a third time.
Past Trump Impeachment Bids
During his first term, Trump survived an unprecedented two impeachment attempts initiated by Democrats.
In 2019, the Democratic controlled House Intelligence Committee investigated allegations Trump had withheld military assistance from Ukraine in a bid to pressure Kyiv into launching an investigation that could damage Joe Biden, who became the 2020 Democratic presidential candidate. Trump strongly denied any wrongdoing.
The House voted by 230-197 to impeach Trump over alleged abuse of power and 229-198 to impeach him over alleged obstruction of Congress, with voting largely taking place along party lines.
However, on February 5, 2020, Trump was acquitted of abuse of power by 52 votes to 48, and of obstruction of Congress by 53 votes to 47. Then-Utah Republican Senator Mitt Romney was the only Republican to vote for Trump’s conviction, and only on the abuse of power charge.
In January 2021, Trump was impeached for a second time after his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6 in a failed bid to prevent the 2020 presidential election result being certified in Biden's favor. During the ensuing violence, one Trump supporter was shot dead and dozens of police officers injured.
This followed Trump's repeated claims, that have been repeatedly rejected in court, that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him due to widespread voter fraud.
Democrats introduced a single article of impeachment on January 11, 2021, accusing Trump of incitement of insurrection, which passed two days later by 232 votes against 197. All Democrats voted in favor of impeachment along with 10 Republicans.
However, following the subsequent Senate trial, Trump was acquitted with 57 senators supporting a guilty verdict, 10 less than the 67 required, while 43 backed not guilty. However, seven Republicans voted with Democrats for impeachment. Then-Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell backed acquittal though he also said “there is no question, none” that Trump is practically and morally responsible” for the events of January 6.
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Federica Bindi and Anthony Murray.
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