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First lady Melania Trump has helped to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine around the occupied city of Oleshky. But could it pave the way for a Nobel Peace Prize?
The White House has said that the first lady initiated discussions with both countries and that she and a representative worked with Russian and Ukrainian leadership to establish the terms of the ceasefire.
The temporary ceasefire is set to begin on October 29 and halt military action so that humanitarian aid can enter and civilians can be evacuated through a designated safe passageway, the White House said.
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Her office described her role as the agreement's "exclusive intermediary."
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Pope Leo XIV has also supported the effort.
The first lady has been commended for her role, which marked an unusual diplomatic turn for a first lady, as Trump pushes for an end to the conflict.
Bets Start Coming In For Next Nobel Peace Prize
People have already begun to place bets on the first lady becoming a Nobel Laureate. On the betting app Polymarket, Melania Trump currently sits at a 5 percent likelihood of winning the prize, the eight-favorite on the platform at present.
Trump, who has often spoken of the honor and said there’s “Nobody in the history of the Nobel Prize that deserves it more,” sits at odds of 9 percent on the platform. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy sits at 6.
Who Won the Nobel Peace Prize This Year?
This year, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the prize to former U.N. human rights chief Navanethem "Navi" Pillay for her efforts to promote peace and international law.
Trump himself has regularly spoken about the prize and previously said that there’s “Never been anybody in the history of the Nobel Prize that deserves it more.”
The president said in a post on Truth Social after Pillay received the award this year that the Nobel Committee had “shamed itself beyond repair and demeaned the once great Nobel Peace Prize by giving it to the UN’s Navi Pillay.”
What to Know About Melania Trump's Ceasefire Efforts
The ceasefire is the latest diplomatic effort by Melania Trump related to the war. In the first year of Trump’s second term, she reached out to Russian President Vladimir Putin with a personal letter hand-delivered by her husband during his summit with the Russian leader in Alaska. She later said that the exchange had established an "open channel of communication" over Ukrainian children separated from their families during the war.
In October of 2025, Melania Trump announced that after reaching out to Putin in August, eight ‘children separated from their families during the war had been reunited with relatives following months of back-channel discussions with the Russian president.
The ceasefire agreement, though, is an expansion of those efforts for the Slovenian-born first lady.
Were it to be maintained and developed into a durable peace settlement, there could be a transformation in a case for the first lady to win the Nobel Peace Prize.
Experts, though, are unsure of her chances of winning what is often considered to be the most prestigious award on the planet.
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment via email.
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Melania Trump Winning the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize is ‘Very Unlikely’: Expert
Timothy D. Sisk, professor of international and comparative politics at the University of Denver, who is a former visiting scholar and Fulbright fellow of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, told Newsweek over email, “While any ceasefire or de-escalation in Ukraine is welcome, a local truce alone -- in a war riddled with broken truces -- won’t win the First Lady the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize in 2027.”
Sisk said that for Melania Trump to sit in the ranks with Eleanor Roosevelt, who is the sole first lady to have won the prize, “Achievements on par with Roosevelt’s historic role crafting of the 1948 UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights would seemingly be needed.”
Meanwhile, Frank Rusciano, a professor at Rider University who teaches courses in American Politics and Comparative politics, told Newsweek over email, “It seems very unlikely.”
“This effort, while positive, is not up to the level of justifying a Peace Prize,” he added.
Rusciano then pointed to how Trump’s support of Ukraine could influence the matter.
“While it may not seem fair,” Rusciano said, “Donald Trump's lukewarm support of Ukraine hurts her chances.”
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Monica Duffy Toft, the Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of international security and director of the Center for Strategic Studies at Tufts University, told Newsweek that this could help the first lady’s chances for the prize but is unlikely to unless it paves the way to something bigger.
“At this point, it is one small effort. The war is still raging. If it leads to something bigger, then perhaps the committee might consider it,” Toft said.
“There are others who have done substantially more to bring about peace both in Ukraine and elsewhere. This is not to deny her recognition for her efforts, but so far these efforts are limited,” she added.
Sisk outlined a potential pathway to a more sustainable situation.
“If the local truce were to evolve through her mediation into a sustainable and just settlement to the Ukraine conflict that preserved the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, which is an outcome difficult to imagine in this conflict at the moment, it’s plausible -- or at least not impossible -- that the Norwegian Nobel Committee could consider such an award to be warranted,” he said.
Melania Trump’s Behind-the-Scenes Role to Secure the Ceasefire Deal
The current phase of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia was sparked when Russia invaded in 2022, and Moscow and Kyiv remain locked in the war.
There has been a significant human toll from the conflict. According to research by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), it is estimated that Russia has suffered 1.4 million casualties, including killed, wounded and missing soldiers.
Ukraine is estimated to have endured between 525,000 and 625,000 casualties, including 125,000 and 150,000 fatalities.
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Russia and Ukraine themselves do not release official casualty data.
Oleshky is located in the partially occupied Kherson region of Ukraine, which Moscow’s forces captured on the first day of the full-scale invasion.
The city was once home to about 24,000 people and has scarce food and medical supplies.
There is no electricity, heat or running water.
The deal sets out three stages: a ceasefire, the delivery of aid and then the evacuation of civilians who want to leave Oleshky.
Fox News Digital reported, citing a senior adviser to the first lady, that she had spent weeks moderating between Russian and Ukrainian officials to hammer out a deal over the city, and ultimately secured the trust as an intermediary.
What We Know About the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize
Little has been publicly confirmed about the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize so far.
The Nobel Committee does not confirm the names of nominees to the media or the candidates themselves.
The prize is given to the person “who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses,” according to the Nobel Peace Prize website.
According to information published on the website for the U.S.-Norway Fulbright Foundational Educational Exchange, the theme for visiting fellows to the Nobel Institute in 2027 is “Paths to Peace: Past Experiences, Emergent Directions, and Guiding Values.”
The Nobel Peace Prize is usually announced at 11:00 CEST on the Friday of the first full week in October each year.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Gray R. Thomas
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