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By Andrew Stanton
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A new poll of the California gubernatorial race pointed to a close primary race, as Democrats face the possibility of being locked out of the general election in the reliably blue state.
Newsweek reached out to leading campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
California’s unique electoral system has created a conundrum for Democrats ahead of the race to replace Governor Gavin Newsom later this year. California, one of the most Democratic states in the nation, uses a “jungle primary” system, in which all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot and the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election.
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Numerous prominent Democrats, but only two well-known Republicans, are running. The risk for Democrats is that if their votes are split among numerous well-known contenders and Republicans unite behind only two candidates, the two GOP candidates could advance to the general election. Although a Democrat could still consolidate support over the coming months, some in the party are starting to become concerned about this possibility, as no candidate has established itself as the clear frontrunner.
What to Know
A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) revealed where the primary stands a bit over three months ahead of election day. It found a tight race between the leading candidates who are separated by only a tiny margin. No candidate has clearly broken through, according to the poll.
Republican commentator Steve Hilton led the poll with 14 percent support, followed by former Democratic Representative Katie Porter at 13 percent. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco followed with only 12 percent.
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That means only a single percentage point determined whether Democrats would have a candidate in the general election, at least according to this poll.
Representative Eric Swalwell followed with 11 percent, while billionaire businessman Tom Steyer placed fifth at 10 percent. Both are Democrats.
Three other Democrats received 5 percent support—former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former state Controller Betty Yee. Other candidates of various parties received about 12 percent; 10 percent said they didn’t know who they would vote for.
The poll surveyed 1,657 adults in California from February 3-11, 2026. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
If Democrats do not advance to the general election, their voters would be forced to choose between two Republicans in a state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 20 points in November 2024 and is known for embracing more progressive policies on issues like LGBTQ+ rights and economic matters.
How Likely Is California Democratic Lockout? What Polls Show
Several polls have now shown that a lockout may be a possibility. But there are numerous factors that could change before Election Day, including undecided voters making their picks or some Democrats with lower polling numbers dropping out of the race. There were some concerns about a lockout in 2018, but Democrats ultimately avoided it, with Newsom eventually becoming governor that November.
A recent Emerson College poll found Hilton leading at 17 percent, followed by Bianco and Swalwell, both at 14 percent support. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from February 13-14, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A Tavern Research poll, sponsored by Becerra’s campaign, showed Bianco leading with 20 percent, while Hilton followed with 12 percent. That poll pointed to a lockout, as Swalwell was the leading Democrat with 10 percent. It surveyed 1,097 likely voters from February 2-5, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Hilton leading with 15 percent, with Bianco at 14.3 percent. Swalwell ranks higher than other Democrats, with 12 percent support in the aggregate.
As lockout fears have continued, Democrats’ likelihood of victory has fallen a bit in betting odds. Kalshi still views the Democrats as the overwhelming favorite at 86 percent, though that is lower than the 93 percent chance of winning the party had one year earlier.
Some Democrats have begun raising concerns about a lockout.
Assembly Member Corey Jackson, a Democrat, wrote to X on Thursday that Democrats need to begin dropping out of the race.
“After next week, it is time for California Gubernatorial candidates to begin withdrawing from the race and put California first,” he wrote.
Representative Dave Min, who represents parts of Orange County in Congress, told The San Francisco Chronicle he is “very worried” about the possibility.
“If you don't have a chance, if you're not raising the money, you don't have the profile, then maybe you need to take one for the team here,” he told the newspaper.
When Is the California Governor's Race?
The primary is set for June 2, 2026, while the general election will be held on November 3, 2026.
What People Are Saying
Heather Hargreaves, Tom Steyer’s campaign manager, told Newsweek: “We are excited to see growing enthusiasm from Californians as our campaign gains momentum and we continue to earn the endorsement of progressive leaders across the state. This poll proves that Californians are deeply focused on affordability and underscores the confidence voters have in Tom’s commitment to fighting for working families, and his ability to make real change.”
Sandra Lowe, Betty Yee’s campaign manager, told Newsweek: “California Democrats shook up the race last weekend when grassroots delegates pushed Betty to the top tier of the party’s endorsement list, voting her No. 2 in the crowded field. We’re the campaign with the momentum, the excitement and widespread support from hard working Californians who believe their votes must be earned, not bought.”
Steve Hilton said in a statement to Newsweek: "We're leading this race because we're mounting the strongest and clearest challenge to 16 years of Democrat one-party rule that has given California the highest poverty, highest unemployment, and highest cost of living in America. I'm the only candidate in this race who hasn't run for office before, and the fact that I'm in the lead tells you something: Californians are sick of the failure, fraud, and corruption and want an outsider to shake up a system that obviously isn't working. They're responding to my positive, practical 'Califordable' plan: $3.00 gas, cut your electric bills in half, your first 100 grand tax free, a home you can afford to buy."
Peter Opitz, spokesperson for Katie Porter's campaign, said in a press release: "No matter who has entered this race or how many millions billionaires have poured into their campaigns, Katie’s base of support remains strong because voters know she has a record of delivering wins for Californians—bringing down costs, holding the powerful accountable, and fighting for a government that works for everyone, not just the ultrarich. Workers across the state are rallying behind her campaign because they know she is the best candidate to take on a Republican and live up to our progressive values."
Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor for Inside Elections, wrote on X: “A primary with 8 viable Democratic candidates and only 2 viable Republicans might cause some unpleasant outcomes for Dems… someone might to have to play traffic cop before too long.”
Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, told Newsweek in November: “We look forward to electing another Democrat as California’s next Governor in 2026.”
What Happens Next
Forecasters give Democrats an advantage. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as being safe or solid for Democrats.
Update 2/27/26, 12:53 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Tom Steyer and Betty Yee's campaigns.
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