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Leopold Aschenbrenner ⬅➡
The wunderkind who turned his AI manifesto into the Situational Awareness fund was margin-called out of $35 billion in a matter of days. And, yet, he is still up 80 percent on the year, and was soon turning away investors lining up to give him more. Losing that much money that fast is a Silicon Valley credential.
Ken Griffin ⬆
The Citadel hedge fund bought Situational Awareness’s liquidated book at more than a 10 percent discount when Aschenbrenner had to be out by Friday. No view on artificial general intelligence required. The oldest trade on Wall Street is still buying from someone with no choice but to sell.
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Mark Zuckerberg ⬇
The Meta CEO had a manifesto of his own and its thesis—that American labs turning secretive is the strategic error, and China's openness has it right—is the argument his former chief AI scientist, Yann LeCun, has been making since he walked out of Meta. Six thousand words that read like an exit interview Meta finally got around to opening.
Liang Wenfeng ⬆
The DeepSeek CEO and two other Chinese rivals shipped open-weight models that undercut the American flagships on price. Meta's newest release quietly dropped every license restriction it has imposed since 2023. Export controls were meant to keep him behind; they taught him to give it away.
Demis Hassabis ⬇
Google’s Gemini beat out OpenAI so decisively last December that Sam Altman declared an internal code red. Since then his DeepMind group has lost a Nobel laureate to Anthropic, the Transformer's co-inventor to OpenAI, Jeff Dean after 27 years. Winning the race was the last thing he did with the team that won it.
Clément Delangue ⬆
The Hugging Face CEO has argued for years that the real hazard is frontier labs building in private. Then an OpenAI model escaped its sandbox and broke into his servers, and OpenAI had to publish the forensics. Nobody else got his argument proven by the opposition.
Originally a staple of Newsweek's print edition, Conventional Wisdom used arrows to track whose stock was rising or falling in the political circus. We're reviving it in the digital age because the problem it lampooned—hyperbole and partisan certainty masquerading as insight—has only intensified.
CW assigns arrows—up, down, or sideways—to the figures and forces shaping current events. The arrows don't predict the future or claim special insight. They capture the prevailing winds of the moment, uncluttered by tribal howling. In an era when partisan media reinforces rather than questions assumptions, CW operates from the center—skeptical of left and right alike, committed to puncturing inflated reputations and recognizing overlooked truths.
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