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By Marni Rose McFall
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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydroelectric project, is nearing completion.
Expected to generate over five gigawatts of electricity, the dam promises to transform Ethiopia's energy landscape. However, its construction has been mired in controversy, raising geopolitical tensions in the Nile River basin.
The Context
The GERD project, located on the Blue Nile River, began in 2011 with the ambitious goal of boosting Ethiopia's energy production and fostering economic growth. The $4.6 billion project is central to Ethiopia's plans to become a major energy exporter in Africa. With a reservoir capacity of 74 billion cubic meters, the dam is designed to be a critical source of electricity for millions, potentially propelling the country into a new era of industrialization.
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"A big part of this project is, or has at least historically been, to sell power to neighboring states," Harry Verhoeven at the Center on Global Energy Policy told The Wall Street Journal in a recent interview.
Despite these benefits, the GERD has been a source of significant regional tension. The Nile River, which flows through eleven countries, is a vital water source for Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Egypt, which relies on the Nile for over 90 percent of its fresh water, fears that the dam will drastically reduce its water supply. Sudan also has concerns about the regulation of water flow and the dam's impact on its own agriculture and water management systems.
What We Know
Over the years, the GERD has been the focus of intense diplomatic negotiations. Ethiopia has maintained that the dam is essential for its development and insists that it will not harm downstream countries. Conversely, Egypt and Sudan have pushed for legally binding agreements to ensure the equitable sharing of the Nile waters.
In recent months, Ethiopia announced the completion of the dam's filling, a move that has exacerbated tensions. The rapid filling process, carried out during the rainy season, has sparked fears in Egypt and Sudan about the potential for reduced water flow during dry periods. Ethiopia has countered by highlighting that the dam will help manage the river's flow, preventing flooding during the rainy season and ensuring a steady water supply during droughts.
Views
Newsweek sought comment from representatives of the Ethiopian, Egyptian and Sudanese governments via embassies in the U.S. and the U.K. but didn't receive a response.
"Sudan is stuck in the middle," said the Middle East Institute's Mohammed Mahmoud in an interview with WSJ.
"To a certain extent it shares Egypt's perspective of needing to preserve their water supply of their own agricultural purposes," he added.
Mahmoud is the founding director of the institute's Climate and Water Program, and pointed out that the GERD could help mitigate the effects of climate change in the region by regulating the river flow in the Blue Nile, if Sudan can "coordinate and collaborate with Ethiopia."
What's Next
As the GERD nears operational status, the next phase will involve testing its electricity-generating turbines and integrating the dam into Ethiopia's national grid. The Ethiopian government has expressed optimism that the dam will be fully operational by 2025.
However, the path forward remains fraught with challenges. The trilateral negotiations involving Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan continue to stall, exacerbated by ongoing civil war in Sudan.
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