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By Matt Modi
Sports Betting Writer
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For Sunday Night Football this week, we have the Colts traveling to Minnesota to take on the Vikings.
The intrigue around this game, aside from it being a primetime NFL matchup, is that the Colts have benched second-year QB Anthony Richardson for 39-year-old vet Joe Flacco.
It is hard to argue that Flacco gives the Colts a better chance to win, but it is a big story seeing a first-round QB benched midway through his second season.
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With that thought in mind, the Vikings are currently 5.5-point favorites in this one, with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET. In this article, we will be focusing on the best NFL player props for Colts vs. Texans.
Joe Flacco 250+ Passing Yards (+146) FanDuel
Flacco's main line passing prop is around 233.5, depending on the book, but the better value here is to pump up the number to 250 to get the plus-money price.
It is riskier, of course, but calling your shot on these higher numbers for higher odds can work out to be more profitable in the long run. All that being said, this is a smash spot for Flacco's passing yards.
Part of this goes back to when he played for different teams, but the reality is wherever Flacco goes and whichever team he plays for, he passes for a bunch of yards.
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He has hit this in only one of his two starts this year specifically, but he smoked the over with 359 passing yards in a plus matchup against the Jaguars. The game he went under was against a good Tennessee defense in a matchup where we wouldn't have targeted his passing prop in the first place.
Last year, he passed for 250 yards in all six of his starts, including the playoffs, and he got to 300 passing yards in five of six starts. So, for those of you counting at home, that means that in seven of his last eight starts, he has thrown for at least 250 yards.
Now, he gets a matchup against a good Vikings defense, but one that allows a ton of passing yards.
You simply cannot run on the Vikings, but they can be had though the air. They are currently allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, with the sixth-lowest adjusted yards per carry before contact as well.
They are, however, allowing the second-most passing yards per game. Since Week 2, they have allowed 300.8 passing yards per game, so teams are, on average, passing for the full ladder that we are betting for Flacco.
Flacco climbs this full ladder on Sunday night, and it would not be surprising if he got to 350 passing yards, but we just need him to get to 250 to cash this out.
Joe Flacco 250+ passing yards (+146): 1 Unit
Josh Downs o57.5 Rec. Yards (-120) BetMGM
If the prediction is that Flacco throws for a bunch of yards, then it is time to call our shot on which receiver those yards are going to, which leads us to Josh Downs.
It has been a hit-or-miss season for Downs, but he has gone over this number in all three games in which Flacco has played the majority of snaps.
The Colts passing offense was a hard one to judge when Anthony Richardson was the starting QB, as he struggled with his accuracy, along with reading defenses.
However, when Flacco was the QB, the Colts passing offense took off, as did Downs specifically. In those three games with Flacco, here are Downs' stats:
- 82 receiving yards on eight receptions and nine targets
- 69 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 12 targets
- 66 receiving yards on 7 receptions and nine targets
He has great target volume, and, as detailed earlier, he also has a great matchup against the Vikings' secondary.
He has been the No. 1 target for Flacco, and this Vikings D has been shredded by opposing No. 1 WRs.
According to DVOA, the Vikings have given up the second-most receiving yards per game to No. 1 WRs, which points toward Downs. Here's hoping he continues this torrid pace with Flacco as the starting QB.
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